Luca Léry Moffat

As leaders attend the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome, reconstruction feels furthest in the places it's needed most.

See my latest for the Kyiv Independent.

The UN confirmed what I saw in Kherson: Russia is hunting civilians for sport - Euromaidan Press First-hand account from Kherson where 100 Russian drones daily target civilians in what UN investigators now confirm as deliberate war crimes.

Important story in EuroMaidan Press, which builds on reports that Russia uses Ukrainian civilians for ‘target practice’.

I recently spoke to Olena who lives just 4km from Russian-occupied territories.

She told me that her city, Nikopol, is a “training ground” for new Russian recruits. A short🧵

Great read, congrats!

EU tariffs on Ukrainian goods return after 3 years of war, complicating Kyiv's path to European integration The European Union is set to reinstate tariffs on Ukrainian agricultural exports on June 6. This is the first time since Russia's full-scale invasion that the EU will not renew an agreement suspendin...

Get the full story here!

kyivindependent.com/eu-tariffs-o...

Number 3: Ukraine’s closer trading relations with the EU.

Over 60% of Ukraine's exports now go to the EU, relative to about 40% before the war.

Reverting to pre-war rules may pose challenges to Ukrainian exporters, who have adapted to trade with fewer tariffs.

Imports of these products did initially spike after tariffs were removed, but then declined.

When Ukraine unblocked Black Sea export routes, it eased the situation.

Unilateral import bans on some Ukrainian products imposed by Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, also contributed to the decline.

Number 2: EU imports from Ukraine of all 290 agricultural products for which tariffs were lifted in June 2022.

The influx provoked protests from local farmers who claimed Ukrainian goods were overwhelming markets and lowering prices.

It’s also been touted by politicians as a sign of Ukraine’s incompatibility with the EU.

I spoke with two experts who challenge these claims. See more in the piece.

In my piece for the Kyiv Independent, I report what today’s return of EU tariffs on Ukrainian agricultural goods means for everyone involved.

Here are a three charts that tell part of the story.

Number 1: the surge of cereal imports from Ukraine into bordering EU countries.

Yesterday, the day after I posted this thread, a high-rise building in Nikopol was hit by a drone.

Here’s a video recorded by a pedestrian.

Source: UNITED24 telegram channel.

Russia uses civilians as ‘target practice’ for killer drones Southern Ukrainian city of Kherson hit more than 9,500 times as Moscow attempts to drive out residents

See also FT story from December 2024:

www.ft.com/content/31b6...

Maps from liveuamap.com and DataWrapper.

Source of Columbia University quote and photo: lamont.columbia.edu/news/drones-...

“There used to be one or two drones a day, but now it’s sometimes twenty a day.”

I asked her how people in Nikopol respond to the constant threat of drones.

“We may go somewhere inside if we already see it above us. But it’s been three years, we are tired of being scared.” 10/10

Olena told me:

“We have a tradition after Easter Sunday where everyone goes to the cemetery to remember their relatives and clean their graves. Just before that celebration, the Russians dropped loads of mines from drones into the cemetery, because they knew people would go there.” 9/

According to Columbia University: “Dropped from the air by the hundreds, they are designed mainly to maim, not kill. Many victims are curious children who pick them up.” 8/

As well as targeting people directly, the Russian army is able to deploy mines from the sky.

Known colloquially as ‘butterfly mines’, the PFM-1 antipersonnel device is tiny but lethal. 7/

Nikopol is their firing range. Its citizens – their targets.

“It’s always different. If they need to teach them how to hit a car with a drone, they hit cars with drones. If they want to teach them how to shoot people, they shoot people. The targets can be anything, for no reason.” 6/

“It depends when they bring new troops. When they arrive, we have a lot of attacks for the first couple weeks. Then it goes a bit quieter for a week or two. Then the next wave of troops arrive.” 5/

Over the last several months, a sinister pattern has emerged in Nikopol: intense attacks for a few weeks, then a period of relative calm. Then intense attacks again. Then calm. 4/

Olena told me that artillery used to be the biggest issue for residents of Nikopol, but in the last five months, the Russians have started to use drones.

Why?

“The Russians realised that Nikopol is a good training ground.” 3/

Nikopol is 4km across from Russian-occupied territories, and under 20km from Enerhodar, home to Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

The Russians occupied Enerhodar in March 2022 and have since set up military camps in the town and surrounding villages. 2/

The UN confirmed what I saw in Kherson: Russia is hunting civilians for sport - Euromaidan Press First-hand account from Kherson where 100 Russian drones daily target civilians in what UN investigators now confirm as deliberate war crimes.

Important story in EuroMaidan Press, which builds on reports that Russia uses Ukrainian civilians for ‘target practice’.

I recently spoke to Olena who lives just 4km from Russian-occupied territories.

She told me that her city, Nikopol, is a “training ground” for new Russian recruits. A short🧵

"Only 43 vessels are jointly sanctioned by the EU, UK and US, so there’s lots of scope to boost overlap of sanctions, which will maximize their effectiveness.”
from @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social

The EU has a non-binding goal to phase out Russian gas by 2027. However, the EU continues to rely on Russian energy. The roadmap to phase out Russian gas, oil and nuclear imports will be published today, 6th May. A thread on @bruegel.bsky.social’s research on gas, oil, and nuclear.

Day 1 in Kyiv I arrived in Kyiv at 10am.

I arrived in Kyiv this week. Here’s what it feels like:
open.substack.com/pub/lucalery...

📊 Chart of the week 💡

This week, we are highlighting one of several charts that feature in the freshly updated Russian foreign trade tracker by Zsolt Darvas, @lucalerymoffat.bsky.social, @catmartins.bsky.social and Conor McCaffrey.
#EconSky

Learn more here: 🔗 https://buff.ly/3Gn28xw

The impact on the European Union of Ukraine’s potential future accession This report evaluates the impact on the EU of a possible EU accession of Ukraine, focusing on economic consequences and institutional developments.

#12daysofBruegel

📝 Dive into the economic and institutional implications of Ukraine’s potential EU accession.

➡️ Zsolt Darvas, Marek Dabrowski, André Sapir, @heathergrabbe.bsky.social
@lucalerymoffat.bsky.social
@gzachmann.bsky.social

🧷 Read here: https://buff.ly/3vMpLwM

#econsky

Finance for nature: how to improve funding for the protection of biodiversity This policy brief summarises the options and outlines the main considerations in finding better ways to value nature

Ecosystem services are either not given a monetary value or are implicitly priced at zero or negatively.
@heathergrabbe.bsky.social @lucalerymoffat.bsky.social summarise the options & outline the main considerations in finding better ways to value nature. #econsky www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...

When @heathergrabbe.bsky.social & @lucalerymoffat.bsky.social announced their work on circular economy, I expected a slap-on-the-wrist talk on correct recycling. It turned out to be about autonomy, value chains, competitiveness, industry, money, kings, and cabbages!

Awesome final event of 2024:

💡 Europe's energy challenge:
98% of natural gas is imported—much as LNG—costing 5x more than domestic US gas. This dependency drives high electricity prices, with fossil fuels still central to the power mix.
To make energy affordable, Europe must decarbonise. Here's four ways to reduce prices: 🧵