Stanthorpe's Avatar

Stanthorpe

@stanth0rpe.bsky.social

Dad, senior risk analyst, Anglo-Irish RPG player. German based Ecomodernist & freelance opinion-holder. Exhausted.

464 Followers  |  801 Following  |  3,358 Posts  |  Joined: 01.08.2023  |  2.2153

Latest posts by stanth0rpe.bsky.social on Bluesky

Just been watching The Martian and I wonder if there are conspiracy theories in Watneys world. I mean, the strength of the storm at the start is impossible in the Martian atmosphere & his accident was amazingly precise, so I'm sure there are some "Watney is dead!" truthers out there.

30.01.2026 18:22 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I suspect that the appropriate answer is "not anymore it isn't"

30.01.2026 18:20 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Oh, you're defenceless now & have opened the path to Kyiv? Well, if you want our protection, you need to only buy American (no European kit!), give us a 1-sided trade deal & buy $1 Trillion in $TRUMPCOIN.

Its a total racket.

27.01.2026 13:06 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Also the article is even worse than the headline: the guarantees are to be agreed after the territory is conceded. So UKR could find itself in a position where it agrees to the concessions believing there will be security guarantees - for the US to then refuse - or raise the price extortionately.

27.01.2026 13:04 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

American security guarantees, like the ones that Trumps administration have said now prioritise the US & not their allies? Those security guarantees?

Also "more weapons" sounds good, but does it come with terms like "it can only be used when we say so" or "you have to buy only from us"?

27.01.2026 12:59 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

This is very good news.

26.01.2026 14:34 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

bsky.app/profile/scri...

26.01.2026 13:39 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Liz Truss waiting patiently by her phone for Reform to ring, not realising it's actually a penguin biscuit

26.01.2026 12:34 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3092    ๐Ÿ” 615    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 53    ๐Ÿ“Œ 18

I remember doing some numbers comparing the share of Soviet citizens in the Communist party vs the share of Britons in the Conservative party & being surprised that the Soviet Communist party was significantly more representative of its society than the Tories were of the UK.

26.01.2026 13:29 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Why is Bravermans defection to Reform headline news? I thought this happened in January 2023?

26.01.2026 13:18 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Things must be bad indeed if he's stopped turning in procedurally generated rage-slop.

23.01.2026 19:41 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Personally I'd go one further - unless there is open, effusive & a public declaration of American support for the Chagos deal, the UK will just return sovereignty to the islanders. If you're going to score points, you may as well damn well score them.

23.01.2026 12:27 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
donald trump is wearing a suit and tie and making a funny face while giving a speech . ALT: donald trump is wearing a suit and tie and making a funny face while giving a speech .
23.01.2026 12:21 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

...huh.

23.01.2026 08:32 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The same calculation could be artillery tubes, BMPs etc - I chose tanks because these were figures I could find from RUSI etc. Any also yes the tactics used are different, but I think that my numbers hold up as a measure of "declining military capacity" (though I'd treat them with great care)

22.01.2026 13:24 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Siri, show me "cope"

22.01.2026 08:26 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Which tallies with my "Russia is has N tanks, is losing x per month, making y & must keep z in reserve" calculations - which point to 50-55 months, or "mid-2026". Yes, its a back of the envelope calculation & assumes tanks are the only critical element, but its a general measure of military force.

22.01.2026 08:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

This is a "shut up, shut up, don't ask me about it, I didn't back down they gave me a secret prize, no you can't meet it it goes to a different school" statement, nothing more. I mean, I knew he was a petulant toddler, but its infuriating to see it proven.

22.01.2026 08:00 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Passengers who criticise the driver are being zip-tied & locked in the luggage racks by some people the driver has employed for this purpose. We're still not sure that he has the power to do that, but that hasn't stopped him, or them.

20.01.2026 17:54 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
a man in a suit and tie is holding a lighter and says vayagif.com on the bottom right ALT: a man in a suit and tie is holding a lighter and says vayagif.com on the bottom right

Its just the French President taking precautions against being neuralised by the American delegation.

20.01.2026 14:01 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Taking Taiwan will require one of - if not the - largest amphibious assaults in human history. An attack into Siberia will involve walking. I still don't think its likely, but I'm pretty sure there are Russian generals thinking of these scenarios with increasing fear as every day in Ukraine passes.

20.01.2026 09:03 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Plus, lets not forget that China controlled these areas until relatively recently (1858 Treaty of Aigun, 1860 Treaty of Peking etc). Sure, China might be looking at Taiwan, but Siberia is easier to do & ripe for plucking - especially now that Russia is (after 4 years of war) deeply in debt to them.

20.01.2026 08:56 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Sucks to be Putin then. Given that he's lost his army, economy, allies & international standing due to idiotic & bloody adventurism in Ukraine, I wonder how long it will be before China starts making moves on Siberia for all the water / minerals / oil / farmable land just north of their border?

20.01.2026 08:51 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
18.01.2026 14:11 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Is it any less plausible than an Austrian archduke getting killed because his driver took a wrong turn, got lost & ended up outside a cafe where the assassin - who failed to kill the archduke earlier that same day - was having a drink?

17.01.2026 17:18 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
a woman is looking at herself in the mirror . ALT: a woman is looking at herself in the mirror .
16.01.2026 19:03 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Guys, I really appreciate that you're not going judicially murder people today, but are only going to do unconstrained street terror. Huge thanks for the massive effort!

16.01.2026 17:52 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

*has

15.01.2026 13:31 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I view this as a retelling of an old saw: If Reform has 10 former Tory MPs then that's a problem for the Tories. If Reform as 100 former Tory MPs then that's a problem for Reform.

15.01.2026 13:30 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Whilst the CU will help, the economic boost is Labour needs is in SM membership.

15.01.2026 12:29 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

@stanth0rpe is following 20 prominent accounts