Michael Dwyer

If you want a good late-summer beach read, the final NEMS Transportation Demand Module documentation has been posted on the NEMS documentation page. We added several new sections, and rewrote others, to capture the significant updates and improvements made for AEO2025.

www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo...

My latest Today in Energy article offers snapshot of Q1 2025 hybrid and EV sales, with a look at how adoption varies between luxury and non-luxury segments.

www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

AEO2025: Our projections show U.S. energy consumption decreasing in the… | U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2025 is now posted, including full projection tables, a brief narrative, and a detailed description of the assumptions used in each case. 👇

Note my clarification on the Alternative Transportation side case on LinkedIn:

www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...

Is that headline accurate? It’s a survey of what people say they intend to do (ie stated preference), not data on what people actually did (revealed preference). I guess “After buying an EV, less than 1% of drivers say they will go back to gas powered cars” isn’t quite as punchy.

www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

“BEV sales continue to increase, with the share growing from 7.4% of the U.S. LDV market in 2Q24 to 8.9% in 3Q24. The share of hybrid vehicle sales also increased, with hybrid vehicles making up 10.6% of the U.S. LDV market in 3Q24, a record.”

I think they can move however many Prologues they want w/ lease deals @ <$260/month. Gotta fill those NHTSA/EPA/CARB CAFE/GHG/ACC credit banks . .

I don't think they are saying Class 8 BEV tractors already have lower TCO -- the text says "At the current global average battery pack price of $135 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) . . . " they would. Class 8 truck batteries are somewhere between $300-$400/kWh right now.

That’s quite a price forecast 😅 Is mining/refining lithium even profitable at that price point?

Also — it seems unfair to compare battery manufacturing cost or supplier price to retail price of an ICE — need to stack OEM indirects/profit on the battery cost before comparing (~1.5x is normal).

I’d take a Wuling Mini (+airbags).

Would love to have some kei cars in the U.S. though..

Yeah, I have a script to overwrite YoY, QoQ, and MoM (by nameplate) with each new data delivery - looks like ANL does the same, or they pay for the fancy dashboard.

Aug-24 BEV sales were lower than Dec-23 by 200 (mkt share record though). Again - Aug will be adjusted, I’ve seen +/- 20k changes.

Note that Wards Intelligence (source for Argonne’s data, and also what we purchase at EIA) modifies their monthly estimates up to 1 year after publication — Tesla being adjusted most. 12/23 total EV [PHEV + BEV] sales and market share were actually higher than current 8/24 estimates by a smidge.