Tomasz Mickiewicz

Why funding Ukraine is a giant opportunity for Europe The bill will be huge. It is also a historic bargain

"Mr Putin’s initial war boom has now given way to stagflation, with growth at almost zero, labour shortages, hidden bad debts, inflation of 8% and interest rates of 16.5%. Another half-decade of this would probably trigger an economic and banking crisis in Russia." www.economist.com/leaders/2025...

Russia: Lukoil is now down 20% and Rosneft 13% over the rolling 5 day period.

The Musk Partisan Effect on Tesla Sales Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

"Without the Musk partisan effect, Tesla sales between October 2022 and April 2025 would have been 67-83% higher, equivalent to 1-1.26 million more vehicles. Musk’s partisan activities also increased the sales of other automakers' electric and hybrid vehicles 17-22%" www.nber.org/papers/w3441...

US goods prices are reaccelerating amidst the trade war—goods inflation is at the highest level in more than two years, with prices for all goods rising 1.9% over the last year & prices for durables rising 1.8%

The last time America hit 12% credit card delinquency rate, the country was deep in the middle of a major financial crisis that threatened to unravel the entire banking system

New w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: Wealthy Americans, buoyed by a booming stock market, are spending freely. Lower-income households, stung by inflation and a slowing labor market, are pulling back

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com

Dutch Supreme Court Upholds $50Bln Payment in Yukos Case - The Moscow Times A record $50-billion payment from Russia to shareholders of dismantled oil giant Yukos remains in force after the Dutch Supreme Court on Friday quashed a Russian appeal, ending a long-running legal sa...

A record $50-billion payment from Russia to shareholders of dismantled oil giant Yukos remains in force after the Dutch Supreme Court on Friday quashed a Russian appeal, ending a long-running legal saga.

Measuring What Matters: Why Italy May Be in Better Fiscal Shape than the US Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

Both Italy and US are not on the sustainable fiscal paths, but that data shows that US is actually in worse shape than Italy, when the fiscal gap is properly measured... www.nber.org/papers/w3434...

Welcome to Europe. There is space here for best development economists around.

Europe’s greatest asset is Europe — let’s use it There are immediate steps that we can take to consolidate our single market

There is no single market in Europe. But it can be created and that would help. on.ft.com/3WuJjiR via @FT

AI Models Need to be Disinfected — Or George Orwell’s “1984” Will Come True Commentary by NewsGuard Co-CEO Gordon Crovitz

“By infecting AI models, Russia is rewriting history for everyone around the world in real time,” writes NewsGuard co-CEO Gordon Crovitz in his Reality Check Commentary.

Read it here:
www.newsguardrealitycheck.com/p/ai-models-...

“.. Lower population growth as the president presses ahead with mass deportations will knock between 0.5 and one percentage points off America’s GDP growth between mid-2025 and mid-2026, according to S&P Global Ratings.”

@telegraphnews.bsky.social
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...

Have Ukrainian Drones Really Knocked Out 38% of Russia’s Oil Refining Capacity? Kyiv’s unprecedented strike campaign on Russian oil refineries has inflicted serious—but likely not critical—damage on the country’s ability to produce fuel.

"Russia’s oil refineries are a bit like a man who is being repeatedly punched. He will not die from one punch, or even half a dozen punches. But it becomes harder and harder for him to recover after each subsequent blow."
carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Annual inflation stable at 2.0% in the euro area Overview The euro area annual inflation rate was 2.0% in August 2025, stable compared to July. A year earlier, the rate was 2.2%. European Union annual inflation was 2.4% in August 2025, stable compar...

Inflation down in Euro area (2.0% compared to 2.2% year ago), and the same as year ago in the EU (2.4%). ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...

Tariffs as Fiscal Policy Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

Broad tariffs downsides: "Efficiency losses would approach one-third of revenues raised, the tax system would be less progressive, and there would be serious tax administration concerns. ... Broad tariffs generate a large negative supply shock ..." www.nber.org/papers/w3419...

NEW: Since the start of the Ukraine invasion, 17 out of 27 EU nations have spent more on Russian oil and gas than they’ve sent to Ukraine in aid!

Despite an oil embargo, Europe is still sending £1bn a month on Russian energy.

This week’s column:

www.thetimes.com/article/dd9d...

Russia: Fuel crisis is spreading rapidly and has now reached Lipetsk region, located north of Voronezh and south of Moscow.

The U.S. is a major importer of Indian products made from Russian oil The United States imports oil products from India's Reliance Industries refinery, which sources nearly half its oil from Russia.

The US is a major importer of Indian products made of Russian oil @npr.org
www.npr.org/2025/09/08/n...

Quite significant downward revisions of #Russia GDP forecasts.

In 2025 from 2.5% to 1%
In 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3%

An Update On The Ukrainian Campaign Against Russian Refineries Hi All,

Just sent out this piece. We are starting to get some decent data on the Ukrainian campaign against Russian refineries--seeing what they are attacking and when. It’s revealing about their strategy and points out how the campaign is poised to develop. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Germany’s €80B rearmament plan sidelines US weapons A procurement plan obtained by POLITICO shows Berlin’s rearmament spree will overwhelmingly benefit European industry.

European governments voting with their money. Only 8% of new German defence procurement planned to go to US companies. Wise move.

Finland-Russia life expectancy gap is the largest border gap in the world

Euro area unemployment at 6.2% Overview In July 2025, the euro area seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.2%, down from 6.3% in June 2025 and from 6.4% in July 2024. The EU unemployment rate was 5.9% in July 2025, also down f...

European unemployment rate went up during the COVID pandemics of 2020, but the downward trend continues since then, according to the latest Eurostat data. ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...

Euro area job vacancy rate at 2.2% Overview In the second quarter of 2025, the job vacancy rate was 2.2% in the euro area, a decrease from 2.4% in the first quarter of 2025 and from 2.6% in the second quarter of 2024, according to the ...

Poland and Romania have the lowest vacancy rates in the EU (the number of available, unfilled jobs relative to the total number of positions in the economy). ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...

China’s future rests on 200m precarious workers They may work in factories or for delivery apps, but are united by common struggles

40% (!) of Chinese urban workers (and 25% total) have short-term, on demand job contracts, many in manufacturing. They gain flexibility but at cost of not upgrading their skills, no provision for pensions, no stability and families. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Poland has closed its border with Belarus due to Zapad-2025 military exercises by Russia and Belarus and Russian drones flying into Poland.

This cuts off a €25-billion-a-year trade artery between China and the EU -

Stephen Miller’s Quota Likely Drove Korean Arrests In Immigration Raid When ICE agents arrested over 300 Korean workers at a Georgia battery plant, a daily immigrant arrest quota was likely on their minds.

according to an immigration attorney representing several arrested workers, ICE agents chose to arrest the Korean workers to fulfill the quota of 3,000 daily immigrant arrests set by Stephen Miller www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...

Employment rate up in Q2 2025 In the second quarter of 2025, the employment rate of people aged 20-64 in the EU stood at 76.2%, up from 76.1% in the first quarter of 2025. Labour market slack – all persons who have an unmet need ...

Employment rate in the European Union (age 20-64) continues to grow in 2025Q2 compared to 2025Q1, and is now at 76.2%. But the two worst performers are Hungary (-.5% change) and Italy (-.3% change). ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...

They say it's better to be lucky than good. That's the story of France since Jay Powell's very dovish speech at Jackson Hole on August 22. That speech has sent US long-term yields a lot lower (blue), which has also pulled down French yields (red). Breathing space for France...

US companies put brakes on hiring after Donald Trump’s tariffs hit Industries most exposed to rising costs caused by trade wars launch wave of job cuts

"Manufacturing shed 12,000 jobs, bringing total losses to 78,000 this year. The mining sector, which includes oil and gas, lost 6,000 jobs in August, while employment in wholesale trade has fallen by 32,000 this year."
on.ft.com/4nuyN6y