Sam Tims

Practical and progressive action here from the govt. Healthy workers benefit their companies and society overall. Right that employers are part of making that happen.

These measures would give social security a much needed boost, support the economy, and go a long way in protecting children's living standards

Improvements of this scale are urgently needed.

Families with children saw unprecedented reductions in their income last parliament and could do so again given the poor economic outlook

On its own, scrapping the two-child limit would lift around 300k children out of relative poverty.

But 140k kids are already impacted by the two-child limit and the benefit cap

So pairing up with a protected minimum floor would overall reduce child poverty by 500k in 2029/30

The average couple with kids is projected to lose £750 a year (1.3%) over the parliament. These two changes would reduce that by a third

Lone parent families would be even better supported. Rather than losing 3.0% of income (£780) they would instead be £320 a year better off

In new @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis with @katieschmuecker.bsky.social we show how cost-effective improvements to social security can quickly improve the living standards outlook for families

Scrapping the two-child limit and creating an income floor in Universal Credit would make a real difference

A decade of falling incomes? JRF's pre-budget assessment of living standards Average incomes are expected to fall by £550 over this parliament, meaning the Government risks having the worst living standards performance of any parliament on record.

But these projections can also be downgraded

As my colleague Chris Belfield has pointed out on the other place, lower productivity growth will make us poorer

For the full write-up of the analysis from Chris, @statspeter.bsky.social, and myself see the link below

www.jrf.org.uk/cost-of-livi...

Our estimates of living standards are based on the latest OBR and BoE projections for the economy. This data can and will change over the parliament as the economic and policy landscape changes

The more Government does now to improve incomes the better the outlook will be

Working-age households will fare worse than pensioners, driven in part by very different experiences of social security

Where over 65s will receive £270 more from social security, households headed by someone aged 35 - 64 will receive £150 less. For U35s the loss is £240

We project that the average real disposable income will be 1.3% (£550) lower in September 2029 than in 2024

Low-income households are set to lose the greatest proportion of their income - 2.7% lower than in 2024, leaving their income 6.2% (£1,110) lower than in 2019

Analysis from @jrf-uk.bsky.social this week suggests this could be the worst parliament for living standards since detailed records began

This doesn't have to be the case, but clearly more needs to be done to boost household incomes and ensure every family can afford the essentials

Delighted to give evidence to Work and Pensions Committee on pensioner poverty. Report says "retirement should be dignified and not a struggle at the poverty line." @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @crsp-uk.bsky.social's Minimum Income Standard measures this. What do the stats show? It's not good news (1/4).

Over 1.6m children are now impacted by the Two-Child Limit - 11.6% of all children

This is a cruel policy that unnecessarily drags children into deeper levels of hardship

It needs to go, and the longer it is kept, the greater the scarring effects on children's health and education will be

Bar chart titled "Healthy life expectancy at birth, by sex and deprivation level (IMD decile), England". The chart compares healthy life expectancy for men (dark blue bars) and women (light green bars) across ten deprivation deciles, from most deprived (Decile 1) to least deprived (Decile 10), based on the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). In Decile 1 (most deprived), healthy life expectancy is approximately 51.1 years for men and 50.5 years for women. In Decile 10 (least deprived), it rises to about 70.1 years for men and 70.2 years for women. The chart shows a clear upward trend in healthy life expectancy as deprivation decreases, with a nearly 20-year gap between the most and least deprived groups. Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS), 2020–2022 data.

The Govt has not published an employment impact assessment for their disability benefit cuts & increased employment support

📣New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows where you live matters, with competition for jobs higher in some areas with higher claims: former industrial & coastal areas 1/5

"Cutting disabled people's benefits won't magically create suitable jobs, particularly in those parts of the country that have long had weaker jobs markets. It's little wonder so many disable people are fearful of the impact of the government's cuts" - Abby Jitendra, Principal Policy Adviser

Ahead of a crucial vote on cuts to disability benefits, our new evidence casts doubt on whether jobs are even available for disabled people facing cuts 📢

The analysis found that the parts of the country among the hardest hit by the cuts have fewer job opportunities 1/3

This analysis is one part of a forthcoming report from myself, @meriahlberg.bsky.social, and Fran Ladouch

That report makes the wider argument that these cuts are not the way to help disabled people into work, resulting instead in far greater hardship

Employers in more affluent areas of the country are more likely to encourage applications from disabled people, with 1 disability confident role for every 47 people on UC-Health

In ex-industrial areas this rises to 1 for every 333 people - a staggering gap that the cuts will do nothing to help

There is just 1 disability confident vacancy for every 121 people on UC-Health nationwide, this is clearly not enough

But the local disparities present for all job adverts are amplified for disability confident roles, with the greatest competition in some of the areas likely hardest hit by the cuts

This is not a perfect comparison. Not everyone has the skills or experience for every job and not everyone on UC-Health can work (although all are impacted by the cuts)

But we can ask how ready local employers are to hire and support disabled staff by looking at disability confident job adverts

Nationally, there is 1 job for every 7 people on Universal Credit searching for work or unable to because of a health condition

But this varies substantially by the strength of an area's economy. In ex-industrial areas there is twice as much competition among this group than the national average

The Government should cancel the cuts and rethink their approach

Because rather than help disabled people into work, if these reforms are implemented, they will likely be looked back upon as a disastrous method by which the Government will have impoverished the very people it aims to help into work

A graph showing that local authorities with weaker local economies have more people on UC that are searching for work or unable to work due to a health condition for each vacancy in that area

Much of the Government's intention for cutting PIP and UC is to motivate people to find a job

But cutting social security can't 'incentivise' people into jobs that don't exist

New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows there are simply too few jobs for the Government's argument to hold

No 10 delays child poverty strategy with tens of thousands more facing hardship Exclusive: Flagship policy put back until at least autumn amid fears cost of removing two-child benefit cap will outweigh political benefit

What the child poverty strategy is is much more important than when it is.

1 million children are in destitution and pulling them out of poverty requires serious action on social security. Hope govt can see that.

www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

Map showing proportion of working age population in receipt of health related social security, coloured by quintile of constituency. In some coastal areas, south Wales, the North West and Yorkshire and North East, rates are between 15-20%

Where will the cuts to sickness & disability benefits hit hardest?

New @jrf-uk.bsky.social constituency analysis shows the % of working age people receiving these benefits in England & Wales.

Some MP inboxes are likely to be brimming, as concern about these plans is widespread

This was raised in the Commons today. Heartening to see MPs across the House - many drawing on their lived experience - highlight deep concern over changes to PIP eligibility leading to loss of Carer's Allowance. parliamentlive.tv/event/index/...

NEW from @jrf-uk.bsky.social.

Much was made of the pressures from a “changing world” on public finances.

Those pressures are also impacting families, and government choices are making it worse.

We find the avg. family will now be £750/yr worse off by 2029, vs today.

Thread.

#SpringStatement

OBR's measure of living standards, RHDI, is up by £500 - largely due to stronger wage growth, including planning reforms which boost incomes.

BUT when you dig into it, 3/4 of the extra income from housing services is 'imputed rents' (what families would receive if they rented out their home).

1/3

Chart showing losses for a family where one person cares for another - monthly after housing costs income would be £1,036 per month less than the equivalent family now. That is 55% of their after housing costs income. In 2029/30 they would gain £12 from the higher basic rate of Universal Credit, but lose £472 from LCWRA change, lose £225 from the carers element change and lose £357 from PIP change.

Some families with a disabled adult stand to lose over £12,000 per year by 2029/30 as a result of the Government's disability benefit cuts.

Hardship being deepened by rebuilding the nations finances on the backs of disabled people

And polling suggests the public know it.

How health-related benefit cuts add up This new analysis shows the level of proposed cuts for some example families, and how multiple cuts interact with one other.

The live case studies from
@statspeter.bsky.social and I can be found here: jrf.org.uk/social-secur...

We will be keeping this page updated as and when policy changes are made