Ashwin Kumar

Nobody knows what would follow regime change in Iran – but what happened in 1979 offers some pointers | Jason Burke The radical clerics benefited then – but who would prevail this time, asks the Guardian’s international security correspondent Jason Burke

Nobody knows what would follow regime change in Iran – but what happened in 1979 offers some pointers | Jason Burke

Day after Alex Pretti killing I complained to BBC about presentation of White House statements and evidence as equivalent. Duty of balance doesn’t extend to complicity with clear lies, I said. BBC could and should report WH making false statements as a *fact of the story*. Today I got response …

It is slightly irritating that the Guardian uncritically reports his claim that taxpayers are spending "an ever increasing proportion of our national income on out-of-work benefits” without pointing out that it is, in fact, false.

The Good Society by Kate Pickett review – the Spirit Level author takes stock Is equality at the heart of our social problems? A whistle-stop tour of the greatest hits of progressive policy

My review of @profkepickett.bsky.social's new book, "The Good Society"

"If you’d asked Pickett in 2010 whether she’d have accepted this trade she’d presumably have jumped at it...But now, like most of the rest of us, she’s less than happy with the results."

www.theguardian.com/books/2026/f...

AI is transforming our information environment - but is it reliably delivering news content to the public?

We tested four AI tools to find out and our results reveal worrying trends:

AI is becoming a new front door to the news - 40% of 18-24 year olds use AI for information weekly and Google AI overviews reach 2 billion a month.

But we find AI isn't reliably surfacing news content - with implications for public access to information and media plurality.

Full report @ippr.org

Supermarket scanner data bring step change in measurement of inflation The Office for National Statistics has today announced the final ‘Go’ decision for the introduction of supermarket scanner data into consumer inflation statistics. It represents a step change in o

Exciting moment for measurement of inflation with 25,000 prices collected manually in shops each month being replaced by 300 million prices collected from supermarket scanner data blog.ons.gov.uk/2026/01/28/s...

Those Chinese wind farms are quite well hidden, tbf.

As he went on, another possibility sprang to mind. Perhaps Johnson has recruited some of the sarcastic writers who used to work for his British namesake Boris, filling his speeches with lines that were best understood as jokes against their employer. How else to explain the complaints that Russia was “more emboldened”, the warning against “the indulgence of self-interest” or the injunction to “call evil and madness what it is”? Hoyle looked round the room like a hawk when Johnson came out with that last line, daring anyone to laugh. It was the kind of speech that would have been largely anodyne at many other points over the last century. As it was, it was like a toast to your parents’ long and happy marriage delivered while your father was loudly banging his secretary in the next room. “We see the UK and Europe stepping up as faithful partners today,” Johnson said, speaking on behalf of the unfaithful partner currently posting screenshots of private messages from fellow leaders. He w

US Speaker Mike Johnson has been sent to win Britain over. But can he hear the words coming out of his own mouth? My SKETCH. thecritic.co.uk/calm...

Rule of the market: How to lower UK borrowing costs | IPPR To lower borrowing costs, the government must continue to rebuild credibility, carefully manage market sentiment and pursue growth-enhancing policies with

Why are UK borrowing costs so high when our debt and deficit numbers look better than others? In a @ippr.org paper, @carsjung.bsky.social and I argue the problem is less “fundamentals” and more a bad equilibrium of market vibes: www.ippr.org/articles/rul.... Short thread. 🧵

The two-child limit is a cruel policy that punishes children for the so-called ‘sins’ of their parents. It never achieved its aims to reduce birth rates, increase employment or hours worked. Having children go to school too hungry to learn is no way to build a better future for the country. /7

Increased headroom – contingency for meeting spending rules – will give confidence to the markets that the UK’s public finances can cope with the winds of fortune: each time Donald Trump comes up with a new tariff, the UK government won’t have to rewrite its budget. /6

Increased taxation of extremely valuable homes starts to correct a long-standing problem with Council Tax whereby the owners of very expensive homes have been underpaying. Gambling in the UK has been undertaxed whilst addictive online casinos have boomed. /5

She funded these with freezing tax thresholds & tax measures targeting the well off – a sensible balance as freezing thresholds is one of the least unpopular ways of raising tax and gambling companies, those with high levels of pension contributions or very expensive homes can afford to pay more. /4

The OBR’s downgrade of productivity expectations and previous social security policy reversals created a need for income. Rachel Reeves also chose to spend on 3 very sensible moves: more ‘headroom’ – contingency for meeting spending rules – abolishing the two-child limit, reducing energy bills. /3

The doomster narratives from some economic forecasters proved wrong: the economic forecast is okay and a distinct improvement on recent years with inflation coming down and decent wage growth – although not spectacular and there is more to do to boost economic activity in years to come. /2

Overall thought on the budget: doomster narratives turned out to be overblown and Rachel Reeves was able to raise the money for a range of welcome measures through a sensible combination of freezing income tax thresholds and taxing those who could most afford it. /1

Delighted to see the abolition of the two-child limit for means-tested benefits. We should never punish children for the so-called 'sins' of their parents. Children turning up at school too hungry to learn is no way to build a country fit for the future

Useful background to the gambling tax increase here:

Contrary to gambling industry claims, there's little evidence this will push gamblers to the black market. Previous changes to tax regulation in 2001 and 2014 did not lead to a notable shift towards illegal gambling

Over 60 per cent of gambling profits come from just 5 per cent of users, many of whom are at high risk of serious harm, including debt, mental health issues, family breakdown and suicide

The UK has taxed gambling at much lower rates than other countries. E.g. online casinos are currently taxed at 21% in the UK, but are around 40% in the Netherlands and Austria and 57% in Delaware

Delighted to see the Chancellor has taken forward the recommendation from Gordon Brown, @smfthinktank.bsky.social and @ippr.org to increase taxes on gambling. We called for this hugely profitable industry to contribute to ending the two child limit for benefits

Investors are telling Britain to cheer up a bit The country’s economic problems are real, but its assets are doing surprisingly well

Lots of performative doom about the UK economy going on. Here a useful reality check fromthe @economist.com. Cheer up a bit everybody!

Eg this year "the FTSE has returned 23% against the S&P’s 12%".

www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Reducing inactivity levels by helping more people with health conditions/disabilities to stay in work would improve the lives of many people. But it is simply inaccurate of Charlie Mayfield to say that inactivity levels are a 'crisis' as they are currently lower than at any point before Nov 2018. 🧵

The Labour Force Survey asks people whether they have done any work and, if not, whether they have looked for work and are available to start. The classification of employed, unemployed or inactive is derived from that

People out of work who are not looking for work.

More precisely, those out of work who have looked for work in the last four weeks and are available to start within two weeks are classified as 'unemployed'. Everyone else out of work is classified as 'inactive'.

Overall summary: when it comes to inactivity, yes of course we should do better, and many people would benefit if we do, but this is not a new crisis.

UK 16-64 inactivity rate 1971 to 2025

The inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 in July 2025 was 21%, lower than at any point before Nov 2018. Since 1971, there has been only one 15-month period – Dec 2018 to Feb 2020 – when inactivity was lower than today.

Reducing inactivity levels by helping more people with health conditions/disabilities to stay in work would improve the lives of many people. But it is simply inaccurate of Charlie Mayfield to say that inactivity levels are a 'crisis' as they are currently lower than at any point before Nov 2018. 🧵