Paul Berenberg-Gossler

It's late in the job market season and I will post again when we have a job advertisement out, but we are hiring a full prof (W3) in Microeconomics at our Berlin campus. Earliest starting date Fall 2025 (but later also possible). Stay tuned! #Econsky

In Merz We Truss: Financial Market Reaction to Germany’s Fiscal Package | Kiel InstituteMenu • This study analyzes capital market reactions to Germany’s recent announcement of loosening fiscal restrictions for defense and state-level spending, while establishing a €500 billion infrastructure ...

New @kiel.institute Policy Brief (with @filpet4.bsky.social): How are capital markets reacting to Germany's proposed €500bn infrastructure investment + defense spending boost? Surging Bund yields reflect growth optimism, not default concerns -- in contrast to the UK's 2022 Truss episode.

Konjunktureller Winter in Deutschland Donald Trumps Wahl hat Folgen für den Welthandel. Schon jetzt kontrastiert die Stärke der US-Konjunktur mit dem verhaltenen Wachstum im Euroraum.

👻 German Inflation: A 2.2% rise, mainly driven by base effects, as last year’s falling prices drop out of the calculation.

Sentiment: Both consumer and business confidence remain weak. Economic uncertainty reaches new heights in GER.

Our economic research newsletter here: lnkd.in/eEcyQjEa

Our latest Economics & Finance Perspectives. As we brace for challenges, Winter is Coming

🏋 GER GDP Growth: A slight decline of 0.1% in 2024, followed by modest 0.6% growth in 2025, not (!) factoring in the potential impact of Donald Trump's election on global dynamics.

www.gdv.de/gdv/themen/w...

What a chart.
www.economist.com/interactive/...

EconTwitter refugees: Congratulations, you've made the right choice by taking the red pill.

Welcome to the club!

Today, we published our latest (very short) "Economics & Finance Flash" - Exploring the recent developments regarding the inverted yield curve and its economic implications. Read the full report here: www.gdv.de/gdv/themen/wirtschaft/ursache-und-folgen-der-invertierten-zinskurve-154904 #econSky

4/4: Optimistic Scenarios: With increased immigration or birth rates, insurance premiums could increase by 15%. One possible (personal) conclusion: Considering the challenges, fostering a culture of welcome and inclusivity in Germany is crucial. #justsaying.

3/4: Policy Measures Could Help: Tying retirement age to life expectancy could lessen the decline to 3%. People would have income for a longer period, boosting private pensions.

2/4: Slight Decline in Life Insurances: The shrinking workforce leads to a 5% drop in life insurance premiums. Fewer workers mean less private provisioning, especially in capital-building policies.

1/4: Boom in Health and Care Insurances: With the elderly population increasing, there's a 60% surge expected in health and care insurances, reaching 50 billion euros by 2040.

Ever wondered how demographic changes shape the insurance industry? Our latest study by ICIR & Alexander Ludwig et al. delves deep into the future of insurance in Germany! What does a decrease of German population to 80 million by 2040 imply for the industry?

Conclusion: Global economic landscape remains uncertain. Divergent paths between US and Eurozone pose challenges for central banks, financial markets, and currencies.  Stay tuned by subscribing to our economic research newsletter here www.gdv.de/gdv/service/gdv-newsletter 6/6

Currency Exchange Rates: Euro weakens against the dollar due to conflicting economic signals and policy uncertainties. Structural challenges and global uncertainties reflect in the euro's depreciation, impacting trade dynamics despite ECB efforts. 5/6

Interest Rates: ECB grapples with inflation concerns amidst a weakening economy. US Federal Reserve maintains stability but adjusts expectations due to economic strength. Market dynamics shift as interest rate differentials grow, impacting currencies and trade balances. 4/6

Financial Markets: Central banks navigate turbulent waters. ECB faces challenges due to declining inflation and economic slowdown. Rising US yields affect global bonds. Stock markets, once resilient, face challenges as investors reassess amid higher interest rates. 3/6

Eurozone Inflation & Growth: Eurozone experiences muted growth, reflected in lowered GDP forecasts. ECB faces a dilemma with declining inflation rates, complicating monetary policies. Germany, especially, struggles with weak consumer spending and high-interest rates, impacting economic recovery. 2/6

New Econ Perspectives. We highlight diverging trends in US and EZ: US maintains strength, but EZ faces challenges. Rising oil prices and Chinese demand impact global inflation, while EZ grapples with low growth & high rates. www.gdv.de/gdv/themen/wirtschaft/inflation-sinkt-wachstum-auch--154508 1/6

Hi, who is here from German #Econtwitter? Please answer and retweet!

Moin.