Julian Jessop

ps. economic and political uncertainty is a major drag on construction activity and confidence, which helps to explain why the figures for France were even worse...

Italy 49.8
UK 46.2
Germany 46.2
France (just) 42.9

pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Relea...

“Rebuilding Britain” - UPDATE

Latest UK Construction PMI was a little less bad in September, but activity still weak and confidence low, with employment falling for the ninth month in a row... 👇

pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

"Storm Amy brings negative electricity prices to UK" 🤔

Might sound good, but too much wind power can be as bad as none at all... 👇

ft.com/content/3bbe...

ICYMI, some more evidence of the cost pressures building in the US - largely as a result of Trump's tariffs... ⏳

source and more: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...

More evidence that private sector activity has stalled again ahead of the Budget... 🙄

Final UK PMI Composite Output Index revised down to just 50.1 in September (flash 51.0, August 53.5), a 5-month low.

This is consistent with quarterly GDP growth of barely zero 👇

pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

UK set to exempt newly-listed company shares from stamp duty Officials hope the planned move will incentivise businesses to list in London

"UK set to exempt newly-listed company shares from stamp duty"

This is good news - Budget set to include a two-three year stamp duty holiday for new listings 👍

(better to scrap stamp duty altogether of course, but this is better than nothing)

www.ft.com/content/3204...

"What economists do" A schools presentation

"What economists do"

FYI, here are the slides from a talk I gave yesterday to sixth formers, organised via @futuresforalluk (aka Speakers for Schools)... 🤓

julianhjessop.substack.com/p/what-econo...

IoD press release: Business confidence falls to new record low Read about IoD press release: Business confidence falls to new record low. Get more of the latest business news articles from the Institute of Directors.

Meanwhile, away from the Labour conference... 🙄

"Business confidence falls to new record low"

source: iod.com/news/uk-econ...

Handy history of US government shutdowns 👇

Note the last - and the longest - was also under President Trump, so this one may drag on too...

Ps. you can read my comments in full here... 🤓

(2/2)

How are 'bankrupt' France's borrowing costs still lower than ours? France's fiscal state has been branded 'worse than Greece's', and yet its borrowing costs are still lower than the UK's - why?

"How are ‘bankrupt’ France’s borrowing costs still lower than ours?" 🤔

Some answers here... (1/2)

www.cityam.com/how-are-bank...

Updating and improving our view of the UK economy An improved methodology and fresh data have resulted in a slight increase in estimated GDP growth since the end of 2023.  In his latest blog, James Benford talks us through the updated picture of the

Hat tip again to the ONS for a clear explanation of the small (but mostly positive) revisions to the 2024 GDP data, confirmed today... 👍🤓

blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/09/30/u...

I've written more here on speculation that Rachel Reeves will have to increase income tax in the November Budget... 🤔

julianhjessop.substack.com/p/raising-in...

FYI, I'm quoted here on why a UK-EU Youth Mobility Scheme wouldn't provide much of a fiscal boost... 🤔

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/202...

ICYMI, saving US consumers from the menace of cheap kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanity units and *checks notes* upholstered furniture is a matter of National Security... 🙃

#TrumpTariffs

Ditch manifesto pledge and raise income tax at Budget, top economists tell Reeves Labour pledged not to raise income tax in November's Budget, but now a group of economists says it is her best option to get the public finances on a sustainable footing

ICYMI, I'm quoted here (along with some 'top economists') on calls for Rachel Reeves to raise income tax in the November Budget... 🤔

(obvs I think she should cut spending instead!)

inews.co.uk/inews-lifest...

Retail sales fall for twelfth month in a row - CBI Distributive Trades Survey, September 2025 | CBI Retail sales fall for twelfth month in a row - CBI Distributive Trades Survey, September 2025

Quote of the day (from the CBI's DTS)... 🫤

"The employer NICs and National Living Wage increases announced at last year’s Autumn Budget continue to hit the [retail] sector hard, with the broader business tax burden now at a 25-year high."

www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

Germany's ifo business survey - out this morning - is a little worrying... 🤔

In short, uncertainty over US tariff policy is still holding back the euro area's largest economy 👇

www.ifo.de/en/facts/202...

The taxes Reeves could raise that economists warn will harm UK growth The Chancellor is set to make a series of tax changes at the Budget, but some could have a more negative impact on growth than others

FYI, I'm quoted here on some of Rachel Reeves' tax options in the Budget, including an NI-income tax switch, cutting pension tax reliefs, and more 'sin taxes'... 🤔

inews.co.uk/inews-lifest...

Lifting the lid on our work to improve labour market statistics The ONS’s new Director-General for Surveys and Economic and Social Statistics, James Benford, talks through work going on beyond the scenes to improve our statistics after a week with several major

Good to see from the @ONS... 🤓

The problems there are well known, but something is being done about them - and in the open too 👇

blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/09/23/l...

Chart of the Day 😔

The September UK PMI signalled job losses for the twelfth month in a row, triggered by last autumn's Budget.

This is the worst run since the global financial crisis of 2008-9, bar only the pandemic.

source and more: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...

Ouch! More evidence of the fragility of private sector activity ahead of the Budget... 🙄

Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index fell back to 51.0 in September (August: 53.5). a 4-month low.

This is consistent with underlying growth of just 0.2% a quarter - at best 👇

pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

Is Britain heading for a big debt crisis? Things are not yet as bad as some reports have claimed. But they sure aren’t rosy either, says Julian Jessop

ICYMI, I have a piece in the latest MoneyWeek... ✍️

moneyweek.com/economy/uk-e...

City AM Shadow MPC votes 8-1 to HOLD interest rates City AM's Shadow Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 for interest rates to be held due to stubborn inflation despite competing risks.

Fyi, I'm quoted here on this week's MPC decisions 👇

(yes, 'decisions' - the Committee will need to decide on QT, as well as rates 🤓)

www.cityam.com/city-am-shad...

No better here, I see... 🙄

ICYMI, the latest RICS survey confirms that UK housing market activity has stalled - mainly due to pre-Budget jitters... 🤔

rics.org/content/dam/...

Is the chicken count seasonally adjusted? 😉

"Securonomics" LATEST...

According to the latest Manpower survey, guess which country has seen the sharpest deterioration in hiring plans globally over the last year (and also the last quarter)? 🤔

ps. sources and more...

manpowergroup.co.uk/press-releas...

go.manpowergroup.com/hubfs/MEOS%2...

August rounds off solid summer of sales

FWIW, the latest BRC survey points to a positive surprise in the official retail sales data (19 Sep), albeit flattered by the weather.

(The BRC data are in value terms, but their own measures of shop price inflation suggest volume growth was decent too.)

brc.org.uk/news-and-eve...

Ps. the increase in candidate availability could be spun either way - perhaps more people are looking for new jobs after losing their old ones (bad), or more people who are currently inactive are now seeking work (good).

Hopefully it's mainly the latter...