Gareth S Jones's Avatar

Gareth S Jones

@garethsjones.bsky.social

Welsh climate scientist mostly found buried in the pages of a good book, or wandering the footpaths of East Devon. Also on https://toot.wales/@garethsjones

375 Followers  |  216 Following  |  201 Posts  |  Joined: 08.01.2024  |  1.6751

Latest posts by garethsjones.bsky.social on Bluesky

This is a good corrective to the BS narrative flowing through the Pielke/AEI/NYP/EID/DOE nexus. Their argument is designed so that we can never ever attribute extreme events to emissions - even singular events that would have *never* [for some suitable finite approximation] have happened before.

09.10.2025 20:57 β€” πŸ‘ 57    πŸ” 24    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 2

This is pretty grossly misleading. 90-95% of this footprint is associated w/life cycle emissions of manufacturing - and almost nothing from the use of the inhalers (see the Supp Info linked below). Should manufacturing in general reduce it's emissions? Sure, but that isn't specific to asthmatics.

07.10.2025 14:20 β€” πŸ‘ 56    πŸ” 14    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 2
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Porthcawl's Coney Island funfair closes after 100 years The sun is finally setting on a much-loved fair that has entertained generations of families.

End of an era. Very fond memories of family day-trips to Porthcawl and visiting Coney Beach amusement park, during late 70s. Back then there was also a dinosaur park next door ... seeing huge prehistoric (fibreglass) creatures had a big impression on 7 year old me!
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

04.10.2025 15:13 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Paul Robeson and his wife, Eslanda, were invited as special guests to the Royal National #Eisteddfod of Wales held at Ebbw Vale in August 1958. As this took place before the official opening of the Eisteddfod, he was allowed to speak in English.

04.10.2025 09:01 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Jane Goodall, world-renowned primatologist, dies aged 91 Jane Goodall Institute says β€˜tireless advocate’ for natural world died in California during US speaking tour

Still active, an inspiration, and doing conservation work right up to the end. Thank you for being a great and wonderful citizen of this planet, Jane Goodall.

www.theguardian.com/science/2025...

01.10.2025 20:59 β€” πŸ‘ 255    πŸ” 45    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 4
A little egret sat on fence next to sign 'Tower Hide'

A little egret sat on fence next to sign 'Tower Hide'

Lovely day at Seaton Wetlands (East Devon), where even the birds use the hides. Seeing two kingfishers flying in formation was quite special.

27.09.2025 18:48 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Fig 2 from https://journals.aps.org/prresearch/abstract/10.1103/98c3-d9j2
"Cross-correlation plot of zircon oxygen isotope kurtosis and Milky Way atomic hydrogen for leads and lags of up to 500 Ma. The black dash lines represent the 95% confidence level. Cross-correlation coefficients outside these lines are considered statistically significant."
The maximum value is just above 0.2 and minimum just below 0.2

Fig 2 from https://journals.aps.org/prresearch/abstract/10.1103/98c3-d9j2 "Cross-correlation plot of zircon oxygen isotope kurtosis and Milky Way atomic hydrogen for leads and lags of up to 500 Ma. The black dash lines represent the 95% confidence level. Cross-correlation coefficients outside these lines are considered statistically significant." The maximum value is just above 0.2 and minimum just below 0.2

I didn't notice any correlation values in the text (which is odd), only that some were "significant". One figure suggest small values of correlations. In statistical terminology a correlation of 0.2 means the one dataset could "explain" 4% of the variability of the other.

26.09.2025 11:13 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
From the grain to galactic scale; Milky Way neutral hydrogen and terrestrial zircon oxygen support coupling of astrophysical and geological processes over deep-time Neutral hydrogen (HI) is fundamental for tracing spiral structure in galaxies, including the Milky Way, through its 21-cm emission line, revealing features otherwise obscured by dust and gas. However,...

Apart from forgetting that correlation does not necessarily mean causation, presenting a correlation of 0.2 as being "significant" and being suggestive of a relationship between the solar system's orbit of the galaxy and Earth rock formation is probably optimistic!
journals.aps.org/prresearch/a...

26.09.2025 11:03 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Climate predictions made 20 years ago compared to the world that actually happened.

Climate predictions made 20 years ago compared to the world that actually happened.

What's that? Climate predictions, you say? Okay!

www.realclimate.org/index.php/cl...

23.09.2025 22:35 β€” πŸ‘ 140    πŸ” 42    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
Graphic with the headline β€œLondon is the greatest city in the world” set against a bright view of the River Thames with the Shard, Tower Bridge and the city skyline.

The text celebrates what makes London special: regularly voted the number one city in the world, incredible diversity with over 300 languages spoken, world-class transport, world leader in finance tech and life sciences, best museums and galleries many free to visit, world-leading nightlife, food sport and music for every taste, host to the world’s best sporting events, home to seven Premier League clubs, globally-ranked universities, a city where you can be yourself and love who you love, and a place for everyone.

Graphic with the headline β€œLondon is the greatest city in the world” set against a bright view of the River Thames with the Shard, Tower Bridge and the city skyline. The text celebrates what makes London special: regularly voted the number one city in the world, incredible diversity with over 300 languages spoken, world-class transport, world leader in finance tech and life sciences, best museums and galleries many free to visit, world-leading nightlife, food sport and music for every taste, host to the world’s best sporting events, home to seven Premier League clubs, globally-ranked universities, a city where you can be yourself and love who you love, and a place for everyone.

I’ve said it once, I’ll say it again.

Ignore the haters, London is the 🐐

23.09.2025 16:17 β€” πŸ‘ 4308    πŸ” 1013    πŸ’¬ 195    πŸ“Œ 177
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The people I work with are not stupid people and our climate predictions of 30 years ago of global warming have proved to be accurate. Just saying. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp...

23.09.2025 15:24 β€” πŸ‘ 184    πŸ” 65    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 3
A screen cap of a paper abstract on the left (Recommendations for producing knowledge syntheses to inform climate change assessments) with the article blocked by a paywall showing "access options". It is a mere 28 euros to access the journal for 30 days. On the right is a screencap from the paper with higlighted text that reads "There will be cases where a question is synthesis ready in the sense
that there is extensive knowledge but there are still considerable barriers to accessing this knowledge: for example, knowledge held by
local communities, practitioners, Indigenous peoples, policymakers,
in hard-to-access grey literature, stored behind paywalls"

A screen cap of a paper abstract on the left (Recommendations for producing knowledge syntheses to inform climate change assessments) with the article blocked by a paywall showing "access options". It is a mere 28 euros to access the journal for 30 days. On the right is a screencap from the paper with higlighted text that reads "There will be cases where a question is synthesis ready in the sense that there is extensive knowledge but there are still considerable barriers to accessing this knowledge: for example, knowledge held by local communities, practitioners, Indigenous peoples, policymakers, in hard-to-access grey literature, stored behind paywalls"

Every time.

20.09.2025 11:53 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Image of lake monster underwater, with reflections on surface, and text over image claiming 'new photos surface'.

Image of lake monster underwater, with reflections on surface, and text over image claiming 'new photos surface'.

This #LochNessMonster photo is doing the rounds on social media, accompanied by a fake story about it being real, and new, and attached to a specific eyewitness event. I see people on Facebook groups thinking that the photo is the 'real deal', sigh. However... 1/n

19.09.2025 13:56 β€” πŸ‘ 109    πŸ” 36    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 8

Take any claims about models not matching observations with a pinch of salt, if only a multi-model mean is shown. Model uncertainties and radiative forcing uncertainties are important!

18.09.2025 17:51 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

You can take the girl outta London, but you can’t take London outta the girl.

Even if I’m a proper west-country bumpkin now, London will always have a big place in my ❀️

17.09.2025 13:29 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Robert Redford playing a gentle incarnation of death, coming for a frightened old woman in The Twilight Zone episode "Nothing in the Dark" (1962). An extraordinary performance then, terribly bittersweet today

16.09.2025 13:28 β€” πŸ‘ 12945    πŸ” 3849    πŸ’¬ 366    πŸ“Œ 366

John has a knack for finding the heart of the issue and expressing it in understandable terms.

11.09.2025 13:31 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

If you see headlines claiming NASA's found life on Mars - these are new studies of features in rocks which, if they were on Earth, look like the kind of thing caused by microorganisms. But they could very well - are most probably in fact - be caused by chemistry, not biology.

10.09.2025 22:17 β€” πŸ‘ 400    πŸ” 70    πŸ’¬ 26    πŸ“Œ 2
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Frontiers | Safeguarding the polar regions from dangerous geoengineering: a critical assessment of proposed concepts and future prospects Fossil-fuel burning is heating the planet with catastrophic consequences for its habitability and for the natural world on which our existence depends. Halti...

None of geoengineering ideas to protect polar regions from
climate warming are feasible in coming decades, are potentially dangerous to environment & present distraction from efforts to limit climate change by massively & rapidly cutting greenhouse gas emissions:
www.frontiersin.org/journals/sci...

10.09.2025 07:34 β€” πŸ‘ 24    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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FABULOUS ANIMALS (BBC, 1975): A young David Attenborough presented this brilliant children's series revolving around one of his personal interests, cryptozoology. Bigfoot, Nessie, Dragons, and all manner of folkloric beasts are covered in David's trademark soothing fashion. A delight.

09.09.2025 18:22 β€” πŸ‘ 94    πŸ” 22    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 2
Pelican crossing lights daubed with the St George cross have been turned, by today's biggest hero, into what looks like slices of Battenberg cake.

Pelican crossing lights daubed with the St George cross have been turned, by today's biggest hero, into what looks like slices of Battenberg cake.

Someone's found the perfect response:

09.09.2025 13:16 β€” πŸ‘ 314    πŸ” 48    πŸ’¬ 10    πŸ“Œ 9

That comparison seems both absurd and tasteless

09.09.2025 16:04 β€” πŸ‘ 79    πŸ” 12    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 1
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Rainer Weiss obituary: Nobel laureate who pioneered the technique that detected gravitational waves Physicist who spearheaded the construction of the LIGO observatory to detect Einstein’s predicted ripples in space-time leaves a legacy of persistence and mentorship.

Obituary: Rainer Weiss (1932-2025) Nobel laureate who pioneered the technique that detected gravitational waves

go.nature.com/4m2HYtW

08.09.2025 11:52 β€” πŸ‘ 63    πŸ” 14    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Gone floppy.

07.09.2025 09:30 β€” πŸ‘ 106    πŸ” 17    πŸ’¬ 21    πŸ“Œ 1
An old book titled Intensive Sheep Management.

An old book titled Intensive Sheep Management.

Are your sheep always turning up late for work? Are they taking too long on their lunch break or simply struggling to get through the workload? Are they always just mucking about?

Then you need some

04.09.2025 10:49 β€” πŸ‘ 735    πŸ” 166    πŸ’¬ 30    πŸ“Œ 22
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Frost fairs, sunspots and the Little Ice Age Mike Lockwood and colleagues examine the Maunder minimum, Little Ice Age and the freezing of the Thames.

We wrote a paper a little while ago pointing out some of the pitfalls of trying to link solar activity to climate change to historical events (in this case freezing of the River Thames).
academic.oup.com/astrogeo/art...
(Preprint version www.personal.rdg.ac.uk/~ym901336/pd... )

04.09.2025 09:05 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Figure S1a "Temperature versus number of rebellions and revolutions." "The colder periods are underlined in light blue." with names "Cold Europe", "Maunder Minimum" and "Dalton Minimum"

Figure S1a "Temperature versus number of rebellions and revolutions." "The colder periods are underlined in light blue." with names "Cold Europe", "Maunder Minimum" and "Dalton Minimum"

They use Maunder and Dalton minimum as names for cool periods - they are terms for low solar activity NOT climate. Frustrating to see such obvious mistakes being missed by the authors, reviewers and the editor.

04.09.2025 08:33 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Fig 1a "Solar activity versus the number of rebellions-revolutions" shows several very smoothed lines of sunspot numbers and an index of rebellion. Highlighted periods indicate "low solar activty"

Fig 1a "Solar activity versus the number of rebellions-revolutions" shows several very smoothed lines of sunspot numbers and an index of rebellion. Highlighted periods indicate "low solar activty"

Correlation does not mean causation. Especially when comparing 200 year moving averages over a 300 year period!

04.09.2025 08:29 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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A climate of conflict: How the little ice age sparked rebellions and revolutions across Europe The Little Ice Age (LIA) – lasting from ∼1250 to ∼1860 - was a long period of cooler, drier conditions, characterized by increased climate instability…

Paper that seems to associate every European historical event of the last 500years to the inaccurately called, and ill-defined, "Little Ice Age".
Claiming that events like the Merthyr Rising and the Rebecca Riots were caused by sunspots is naive at best!
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

04.09.2025 08:23 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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RealClimate: Climate Scientists response to DOE report RealClimate: As we've mentioned, Andrew Dessler and Robert Kopp have been coordinating a scientific peer review of the DOW 'CWG' Critique of Climate Science. It is now out. The comments are available ...

RealClimate: Climate Scientists response to DOE report www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...

02.09.2025 21:22 β€” πŸ‘ 18    πŸ” 10    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

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