PatrickTBrown31.bsky.social

Weather the most frequently traded forecast contracts at Interactive Brokers: Founder - Artemis.bm Interactive Brokers’ ForecastEx platform, which allows investors to buy ‘yes’ or ‘no’ contracts based on stated outcomes for specific indicators, is

www.artemis.bm/news/weather...

Will the Atlantic Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Collapse? Prediction Markets Can Quantify Sentiment | IBKR Campus US Prediction markets can quantify sentiment on the possibility of a major ocean current collapsing due to climate change.

Will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Collapse? Prediction Markets Can Quantify Sentiment

www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

I use this framework to attempt to shed light on how it can simultaneously be true that 1) disaster losses keep breaking records even while 2) most hazards aren’t changing dramatically, and 3) mortality rates from extreme events have fallen.

It was a pleasure to be on the IBKR Cents of Security podcast today, discussing my favorite framework for thinking about the risks from extreme weather: Hazard × Exposure × Vulnerability.

www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/podca...

This has downstream implications for many entities in the energy sector, and thus, taking positions on certain parts of the temperature strike ladder can be used to hedge against adverse outcomes.

Uncertainty in next-day temperature (as reflected in the range of strikes and associated prices/probabilities in prediction markets) can translate into millions of dollars of uncertainty in energy expenditure for a given metro area.

Energy expenditure implications of next-day temperature forecasts | IBKR Campus US The range of plausible next-day temperature outcomes can translate into millions of dollars in differences in energy expenditure.

Does the range of plausible temperatures in a next-day forecast translate into any substantial difference in expectations for the day’s energy expenditure?

A simple calculation shows that the answer is yes.

www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

Daily High Temperature Markets at ForecastEx | IBKR Campus US A guide for participants and observers of daily temperature forecast markets at ForecastEx.

ForecastEx has launched weather-forecast prediction markets, allowing participants to take financial positions on the daily high temperatures for an initial offering of 10 US cities.

In this article, I lay out tools for forecasting & IDing mispricings.

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What do prediction markets indicate about the rhetoric at this year’s international climate conference? | IBKR Campus US Prediction markets can tell us whether pledges coming out of the climate negotiations are likely to make a substantive difference.

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How prediction markets can help:

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When Are Scientific Claims Untrustworthy? Distinguishing between science and political opinions masquerading as science

When Are Scientific Claims Untrustworthy?

Distinguishing between science and political opinions masquerading as science

www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/when-are-s...

Climate Change’s Impact on Global Agriculture and Food Security | IBKR Campus US Exploring climate change’s impact on global agriculture and food security.

It was great to be on the IBKR Cents of Security podcast today, discussing the long-term rise in global agricultural productivity and the headwinds from climate change.

www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

ForecastEx Odds of a Major Hurricane Landfall Compared to Weather Models.

By the afternoon of October 26th onward, ForecastEx odds were better than Google DeepMind’s at indicating a major hurricane landfall in Cuba.

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The storm didn't begin its northeastward progression as soon as some models anticipated.

According to the HWRF model (00Z 10/28 run)

Hurricane eye landfall times are:

Jamaica: 10/28, 18:00 UTC or 2:00 PM ET
Cuba: 10/29, 6:00 UTC or 2:00 AM ET
The Bahamas: 10/29, 21:00 UTC or 5:00 PM ET.

Hurricane Prediction Market Update [10/27/2025]

www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

Glad this climate and energy conversation is up and running.

24 Questions on Extreme Weather, Disasters, and Climate Change As Seen on PBS Energy Switch

Additionally, we received 24 questions beforehand (many of which had to be cut due to time constraints in the episode). I have provided bullet point-style written responses with references/links that viewers seeking more detail may find helpful.

www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/24-questio...

Energy Switch | Extreme Weather part 2 | Season 7 | Episode 4 Floods, fires and storms are flat or down, but risk and damages have increased.

S7 Ep4: Extreme Weather part 2 | Floods, fires and storms are flat or down, but risk and damages have increased. www.pbs.org/video/extrem...

Energy Switch | Extreme Weather part 1 | Season 7 | Episode 3 Our experts dig through IPCC data to reveal surprising trends in extreme weather.

S7 Ep3: Extreme Weather part 1 | Our experts dig through IPCC data to reveal surprising trends in extreme weather. www.pbs.org/video/extrem...

You can watch the full discussion here:

Additionally, a major part of the perception is that activists in the climate movement have found it very useful to connect extreme weather to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations as a tool of advocacy.

What is put in front of our eyeballs is largely Earth's pre-existing extreme weather hazards interacting with vastly increased exposure over time and then disseminated to us much more efficiently than ever before through the internet and algorithms.

I think there's a huge gap between what you’d read in the IPCC chapter on extreme weather (WG1 CH 11) and what you see in a lot of media.

That also means that outcomes from extreme weather today are dictated much more by societal arrangements and background economic development than by the severity of the hazard itself.

Meanwhile, climate-sensitive outcomes, such as per capita deaths from extreme weather or $ damage per $ exposed, have declined over time due to economic and technological development.

However, global fire activity, global floods, global meteorological droughts, global hurricane activity, global mid-latitude cyclones, severe thunderstorms, and their subhazards aren’t changing at nearly the pace (or sometimes even in the direction) many people think.

I highlight that elevated greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, are causing an increase in heatwaves and coastal flooding as well as a decrease in coldwaves.

I was recently on two episodes of the PBS show Energy Switch, hosted by Scott Tinker, alongside @revkin.bsky.social. The topic was extreme weather, disasters, and climate change.

Where Are The Hurricanes? Prediction Market Update [9/10/2025] | IBKR Campus US It’s the typical peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season, but the basin remains calm, and that’s tipping the prediction markets.

Where Are The Hurricanes? Prediction Market Update [9/10/2025].

It’s the typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but the basin remains calm, and that’s tipping the prices in prediction markets.

www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...

There’s a real possibility that Hurricane Erin may still be the only hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season by the end of next week. As it stands, the market probabilities at ForecastEx appear to be overvaluing the odds of high activity.

www.interactivebrokers.com/campus/trade...