Michael McDonough

Still notable political bias in inflation expectations, but expectations are broadly rising and Independents' views are surging:

▶️Democrats: +8.0%
▶️Independents: +6.5%
▶️Republicans: +0.4%

h/t @michaelmcdonough.bsky.social

Even Republicans' sentiment is deteriorating noticeably. Charts from @michaelmcdonough.bsky.social

Egg prices are at a record, now topping $7 a dozen via @michaelmcdonough.bsky.social

Here's how monthly mortgage payment for buying a $500K home have changed over time. Remember: Fed cuts target short-term rates, but mortgage costs also hinge on inflation expectations, long-term Treasury yields, and global investor demand—so they don't always move in lockstep.

Bitcoin once again leads the pack—here’s a snapshot of my global annual multi-asset returns matrix:

The percentage of Consumer Price Index (CPI) components with month-over-month increases exceeding their 5-year average has dropped significantly.

Find CPI Diffusion Indexes on the Terminal: {ECAN US DIF CPI /TR MOM% /D 10Y /V CHART <GO>}

BLS: The Importance of Equitable and Timely Access to Data

bls.gov/blog/

Wonder who's watching the U.S. tariff schedule in real time? Wonder no more!

With tariff volatility ahead, we’re tracking real-time views and downloads by user location. Check out our first live data chart! G //KEY:6867188:2883<Go>

This week's US Treasury auction schedule via WSL AUCTIONS:

We’ve just launched an exciting new feature in ECAN – the Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index, now with sector-level contributions!

Another noteworthy UMich Sentiment Index chart: The percentage of respondents offering unsolicited positive or negative comments about economic policy news.

Breaking Down the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index:

Arguably the most insightful politics and economics chart available—inflation expectations by political party affiliation—was just updated by the University of Michigan:

The UMich Consumer Sentiment Political Affiliation Inversion is Now Complete!

Federal Government NFP (Excluding the Postal Service

Looking at the contributions by status to the US Unemployment Rate from ECAN:

Looking at the contributions by status to the US Unemployment Rate from ECAN:

Breaking down the 1-month net change in NFP:

Examining the 3-month moving average of net NFP changes:

Jobs Day! ECAN<Go> Menu:

✅ NFP MoM Net Change: ECAN US NFP <GO>
✅ NFP Net Change 3-Month Moving Average: ECAN US NFP /TR MMA3 /D 3Y <GO>
✅ NFP 3-Month Net Change: ECAN US NFP /TR 3MOM /D 3Y <GO>

✅ Unemployment Rate by Status: ECAN US UNEMPLOYMENT /A BY_STATUS <GO>
✅…

Job's Day! ECAN<Go> Menu:

✅ NFP MoM Net Change: ECAN US NFP <GO>
✅ NFP Net Change 3-Month Moving Average: ECAN US NFP /TR MMA3 /D 3Y <GO>
✅ NFP 3-Month Net Change: ECAN US NFP /TR 3MOM /D 3Y <GO>

✅ Unemployment Rate by Status: ECAN US UNEMPLOYMENT /A BY_STATUS <GO>
✅…

Today's #NFP release might be noisy, partly rebounding from last month's storm-related distortions. To cut through the noise, consider tracking the 3-month moving average of net NFP changes via ECAN. It’s been trending lower for a while, signaling a cooling labor market.

With the jobs data scheduled for release tomorrow: Discussions about job cuts in S&P 500 earnings calls have only seen a slight uptick from relatively low levels, especially when compared to the spikes in 2020 and 2023. (Chart from ECAN

View on the other side of the room:

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem at the Bloomberg & Global Interdependence Center Symposium at Bloomberg HQ.

South Korea caught in ‘war of attrition’ amid claims of impending martial law Allegations President Yoon Suk-yeol would impose martial law to avoid impeachment carry echoes of past political crackdowns.

Some background on Korea: In South Korea, claims of impending martial law inflame political ‘war of attrition’ | South China Morning Post

scmp.com/week-asia/poli…

KRW on reports of Korean president declaring martial law:

KRW on reports of President declaring martial law:

We're expanding the ECAN<GO> AI-powered transcript analyzer with new topics using DS TA data. Here's the count of S&P 500 earnings call discussions on holiday sales! (One of the many new topics being released

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Up to 3.2% from 2.7%: (Chart from ECAN