@bradjones.bsky.social
Author of Colorado's Political Landscape (https://www.co-political-landscape.org). Senior Research Director, YouGov; Formerly Meta; Even more formerly Pew Research Center
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13.02.2026 01:46 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0In-person voter fraud is vanishingly rare (and in almost all cases involves good-faith misunderstandings of the law). If you are going to rig an election, you don't do it by trying to orchestrate a massive, coordinated conspiracy involving tens of thousands of individuals.
12.02.2026 15:41 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Picture of Gallup approval trend for Trump Term 2, dropping, then covered by large black rectangle hiding where his (likely cratering) approval would be in the future.
11.02.2026 19:48 β π 323 π 59 π¬ 2 π 2the naive kind of hypothesis testing that says something like:
H0: The effect of education on voting is zero
H1: The effect of education on voting is not zero
Given a sufficient sample size, H0 will always be rejected, but it doesn't really say anything.
I might not be posing it well, but it comes out of things I've read from Andrew Gelman on the topic (e.g. this sites.stat.columbia.edu/gelman/resea...).
The difference is between a rigorously derived hypothesis based on theory (think the kinds of theorizing that happens in physics) and ...
Surely some of this is the prevalence of "straw man" null hypotheses in the literature, no?
If I posit *some* non-zero effect of education on voting , I will always find a significant result, but the problem is not selection bias in the publication process, it is a poorly specified hypothesis.
I'm happy to have my work featured in the Denver Axios newsletter this morning: www.axios.com/local/denver...
Check out the original post here: www.co-political-landscape.org/the-invisibl...
New post up today on the invisible primary on the Republican side for the gubernatorial nomination.
www.co-political-landscape.org/the-invisibl...
#copolitics
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New analysis up today on the "invisible primary" in the Colorado governor race.
Polis is term limited, and the two frontrunners are current AG Phil Weiser and Senator Michael Bennet.
www.co-political-landscape.org/the-invisibl...
#copolitics
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Read more about it and sign up to receive notifications when new posts go live: www.co-political-landscape.org
06.02.2026 16:16 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0At this early date, only about 200 donors who have given to Evans in his past or current run for congress have contributed to either Marx or Kirkmeyer, and Kirkmeyer holds only a very narrow lead among these donors (106 have given to her campaign, 97 have given to Marx).
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This is reflected in two of the main endorsers in the race thus far: Gabe Evans (representing Colorado's most closely divided district) for Kirkmeyer and Lauren Boebert (representing the most solidly Republican district in the state) for Marx.
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The two frontrunners (at least in the money race to date) are Barbara Kirkmeyer and Victor Marx. To the extent that traditional labels can be applied in politics any more, Kirkmeyer represents that "moderate" or "establishment" side while Marx is much more of an outsider.
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The GOP race has been much quieter on the campaign finance side than the Democratic contest (which I wrote about here: www.co-political-landscape.org/the-invisibl...)
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New post up today on the invisible primary on the Republican side for the gubernatorial nomination.
www.co-political-landscape.org/the-invisibl...
#copolitics
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Calling all BYU alumni - register your displeasure with the insane decision to allow ICE at a career fair.
04.02.2026 18:36 β π 8 π 3 π¬ 1 π 0That would go a long way toward explaining that! Thank you - I wasn't around in Colorado during those elections.
03.02.2026 20:41 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0this is a cool new #copolitics site with some great data analysis by @bradjones.bsky.social on the #cogov contest... excited to see more of his work here this year!
03.02.2026 17:17 β π 5 π 2 π¬ 0 π 1
See the post for more and stay tuned for similar analyses of the other contested races in the state.
Sign up to receive notifications when future analyses are posted.
www.co-political-landscape.org/the-invisibl...
Notes: The plot represents donors arranged into mutually exclusive sets. Each square in the graphic represents 10 donors. The lighter green section on the left hand side represents the donors who gave only to Bennet's senate campaigns since 2017 (out of this set of three campaigns). The sections in the middle show the donors who gave to Sen. Bennet and at least one other campaign. Sources: TRACER database of campaign contributions (downloaded 31 Jan 2026). FEC records for federal candidates accessed through the DIME database. This figure is restricted to donors to Bennet's senate campaign who listed a Colorado address. Record linkage by the author.
Bennet has a deeper pool of past donors to draw from, but so far at least, he has not used them to his advantage. In fact Weiser has done about as well with past donors to Bennet's campaign compared to Bennet himself. The graphic below is my attempt to visualize the overlap (see alt text).
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Both Weiser and Bennet currently hold statewide office, but their donor profiles for those races look very different. Bennet has a national network of donors (only about 40% of his donors during the past eight years report living in Colorado).
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One of the interesting things about the race is that Polis was largely self-funded, and both candidates have so far raised many times more from individuals at this early stage of the process than Polis did over his entire eight years in office.
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New analysis up today on the "invisible primary" in the Colorado governor race.
Polis is term limited, and the two frontrunners are current AG Phil Weiser and Senator Michael Bennet.
www.co-political-landscape.org/the-invisibl...
#copolitics
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A set of opposing bar charts showing the acceptability of different actions (recording ICE officers, sharing locations of ICE enforcement actions, reporting on people who might be in the country illegally).
Another important report from Pew out today on Americans' views of ICE actions.
An enormous majority of the public says it is acceptable for citizens to record video of immigration officers (nearly 3/4 of the public; almost all Dems, and nearly six-in-ten Reps).
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
I know that at a tech event, you expect to hear from a speaker who will come up and tell you how to lose hundreds of billions of dollars building data-centres for the money-losingest technology in human history, a technology so wildly defective that we've had to come up with new, exotic words to describe its defects, like "hallucination." A technology that will never recoup the capex already firehosed on β let alone the trillions committed to it β and whose only possible path to glory is to somehow get so good that it makes millions of people unemployed. From Cory Doctrow https://pluralistic.net/2026/01/29/post-american-canada/#ottawa
Cory Doctorow does not mince words about the collective delusion our titans of tech seem to be under.
pluralistic.net/2026/01/29/p...
I know that at a tech event, you expect to hear from a speaker who will come up and tell you how to lose hundreds of billions of dollars building data-centres for the money-losingest technology in human history, a technology so wildly defective that we've had to come up with new, exotic words to describe its defects, like "hallucination." A technology that will never recoup the capex already firehosed on β let alone the trillions committed to it β and whose only possible path to glory is to somehow get so good that it makes millions of people unemployed. From Cory Doctrow https://pluralistic.net/2026/01/29/post-american-canada/#ottawa
Cory Doctorow does not mince words about the collective delusion our titans of tech seem to be under.
pluralistic.net/2026/01/29/p...
A set of opposing bar charts showing the acceptability of different actions (recording ICE officers, sharing locations of ICE enforcement actions, reporting on people who might be in the country illegally).
Another important report from Pew out today on Americans' views of ICE actions.
An enormous majority of the public says it is acceptable for citizens to record video of immigration officers (nearly 3/4 of the public; almost all Dems, and nearly six-in-ten Reps).
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
A set of connected dot plots showing how Trump's support has slipped among Republicans in terms of the share who say he "has the mental fitness to do the job" (75% in Feb, 66% today), "respects the country's democratic values (60% to 52% today) and "acts ethically in office (55% to 42% today).
Pretty amazing how Trump's support among *Republicans* has slipped so much in the latest Pew poll. 2/3s say he has the mental fitness for the job. Only 42% now say he is acting ethically in office (!).
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
I wrote this song on Saturday, recorded it yesterday and released it to you today in response to the state terror being visited on the city of Minneapolis. Itβs dedicated to the people of Minneapolis, our innocent immigrant neighbors and in memory of Alex Pretti and Renee Good.
Stay free
Chasing "new" ideas and counterintuitive findings is the foundation for things like the replication crisis in the social sciences. These kinds of incentives pull researchers in unproductive directions.
28.01.2026 19:45 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
