Jon Baker

To collapse or not: the stability of the AMOC in a warming climate — NERC GW4+ Supervisor: Dr Rory Bingham Project keywords: climate, oceanography, AMOC, sea-level, AI

📢 PhD opportunity! 🌊
“To collapse or not: the stability of the AMOC in a warming climate”
Deadline: 8 Jan 2026

Work with Bristol, Liverpool & the Met Office on AMOC stability using observations, models & AI.

Details: www.nercgw4plus.ac.uk/projects-202...

Please share with anyone interested!

Changing European hydroclimate under a collapsed AMOC in the Community Earth System Model Abstract. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is expected to weaken or even collapse under anthropogenic climate change. Given the importance of the AMOC in the present-day climate,...

📢 New paper on the impacts of AMOC collapse on European hydroclimate. 🌊

We find an AMOC collapse would exacerbate drought conditions across Europe, linked to reduced precipitation. In combination with climate change droughts are expected to become more frequent and severe.

doi.org/10.5194/hess...

Happy to see this out! Meltwater can delay future surface warming, and its interannual variations impact ocean stratification & overturning.​​ This effect is usually absent from models.

Including it as forcing may lead to more realistic simulation of surface temperature and sea ice trends🧊🌊 (1/7)

Datasets and protocols for including anomalous freshwater from melting ice sheets in climate simulations Abstract. Anomalous freshwater fluxes from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and ice shelves are impacting the surrounding oceans, and we need to be able to account for these effects in climate m...

Finally out! The outcome of a virtual workshop in Feb 2024 with modelers and observationalists to put together data and protocols to include historical changes in ice sheet/ice shelf discharge in CMIP models. Hopefully not too late for some CMIP7 runs!

gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...

PhD opportunity in oceanography 🌊🌊🌊
"The role of the northwest Atlantic boundary current in the meridional overturning circulation". This is an @o-snap.org related study about the AMOC.
@marineinstitute.bsky.social
@oceanaccess.bsky.social

More information here: www.mi.mun.ca/media/marine...

Southern Ocean influence on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation across climate states - Nature Communications The properties of the Antarctic Bottom Water largely determine the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation’s depth and strength across climate states by affecting the routes via which North Atlant...

Exciting to see our overturning pathway method applied in new research!

Song et al. use it on CMIP6 PMIP glacial models and find these pathways shape the AMOC response - confirming our earlier idealised results for glacial climates 🌊

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Inter-basin contrast in the Southern Ocean warming - Nature Communications This work highlights a sharp warming contrast within the Southern Ocean: the Atlantic-Indian sector warms faster than the Pacific due to wind-driven heat transport. The contrast is projected to persis...

🌊 Inter-basin contrast in the Southern Ocean warming

Over the past six decades, the warming of the 0-700 m Atlantic-Indian sector was 40.0 ± 5.7% faster than the Pacific sector, nearly doubling at ~44°S.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

A full AMOC shutdown to 0 Sv after 2100 looks very unlikely, as Southern Ocean winds maintain a weak overturning even under extreme forcing.

A collapse below ~6 Sv is more likely than before 2100, depending on future emissions.

Even a weakened AMOC could bring major climate impacts.

Across all SSPs, every CMIP6 model remains above 6 Sv (though a few come close) throughout this century — so no AMOC collapse occurs, by either the ~6 Sv “near-shutdown” or 0 Sv “full-shutdown” definitions

To clarify: by real-world forcing I mean any of the CMIP6 SSP scenarios — even the most extreme, SSP585. These AMOC time series are documented in Weijer et al., 2020 and Baker et al., 2023.

Always interesting to see this come up again 😄

Our Nature paper didn’t “redefine” collapse — there’s no single threshold, though ~6 Sv is common.

We used 0 Sv only for extreme 4×CO₂ runs (full shutdown).

Under real-world forcing, models stay above 6 Sv this century — no collapse.

Clarified 🌊👇

Physical Oceanographers! Come join us in the Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences at NC State University.
Job posting now live: jobs.ncsu.edu/postings/223... 🌊

YouTube video by ClimTip Will the AMOC Collapse? Insights from Climate Models | Jonathan Baker | ClimTip Webinar

🎥 My recent ClimTip talk on our Nature paper is now online!

We find that an AMOC collapse is unlikely this century as Southern Ocean winds pull deep waters to the surface, stabilising it in a weakened state.

Still, the global ocean circulation is expected to change greatly as the planet warms 🌊

Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent Abstract. The ocean takes up over 90 % of the excess heat stored in the Earth system as a result of anthropogenic climate change, which has led to sea level rise and an intensification of marine extre...

🚨🌊 New highlight paper out today in Earth System Dynamics!

We find an observational constraint implying more future global ocean heat uptake, cloud feedback, and warming than the CMIP6 mean.

This contrasts with previous estimates based on past warming trends.

🔗 esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent Abstract. The ocean takes up over 90 % of the excess heat stored in the Earth system as a result of anthropogenic climate change, which has led to sea level rise and an intensification of marine extre...

Future atmospheric and ocean warming over the 21st century might be larger than previously expected based on a new study by @linusvogt.bsky.social

Linus & I developed the idea during Linus research visit with me at @whoi.edu and turned it then into this paper:

esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

Southern Ocean CO2 outgassing and nutrient load reduced by a well-ventilated glacial North Pacific - Nature Communications A better-ventilated North Pacific could have reduced the carbon of water upwelled in the Southern Ocean, reducing outgassing and revealing a remote influence on Southern Ocean biogeochemistry in glaci...

🚨New paper on Southern Ocean CO2🚨
Using a suite of Earth system models, Maddie Shankle et al show that better ventilation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific ends up reducing outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean 🌊🧪⚒️🧵 @earthscista.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Unexpected decline in the ocean carbon sink under record-high sea surface temperatures in 2023 - Nature Climate Change The ocean carbon sink strengthened in previous warm El Niño years due to reduced CO2 outgassing in the tropics. Here the authors show that the ocean carbon sink declined in 2023 despite record-high se...

🌊 In 2023, the ocean carbon sink weakened for the first time in a record-hot year 🌡️🌎
Our new study in Nature Climate Change quantifies this unexpected decline and explains how it came about. 👇
doi.org/10.1038/s415...

⏰ Reminder: Tomorrow I’ll join @climtip.bsky.social to discuss the future of the AMOC.

Our Nature study suggests collapse is unlikely this century — but the risks remain critical.

🗓️ 2 Sept, 14:00–15:00 CEST
👉 tum-conf.zoom.us/j/6933421034...

Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood, study finds Scientists say ‘shocking’ discovery shows rapid cuts in carbon emissions are needed to avoid catastrophic fallout

My comments in The Guardian about an important new study.
It shows AMOC collapse risks increase after 2100, particularly in extreme high-end scenarios, but also in a few lower ones.

We need more climate model simulations that run beyond 2100 to assess these risks properly 🌊

Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes - Nature Climate models suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is unlikely to collapse this century, owing to stabilization from wind-driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean.

1/ Headlines in 2023 warned the AMOC – the Atlantic “conveyor belt” that warms Europe – could collapse in 2025.

New research led by @jonbakerocean.bsky.social ‬in @nature.com challenges that: shutdown this century is unlikely.

But weakening is real, and risky. 🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Last chance to submit your abstract to our OSM26 session on northern overturning and watermass transformation. Looking forward to seeing your work 🌊

NIOZ - PhD-position "Overturning the ocean'' The department of Ocean Systems (OCS) at the Royal Netherlands Institute of Sea Research (NIOZ) is looking for an enthusiastic and motivated PhD candidate to work on the exchange of lighter and denser

Advertising this PhD student position once more (deadline 30 August) workingat.nioz.nl/o/phd-positi...

We are looking for someone with a MSc in physical oceanography, fluid dynamics or physics to study how ocean eddies contribute to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

🌊 The Atlantic Ocean “conveyor belt” is crucial for global climate, but what does its future hold?

I’m excited to be speaking at the next ClimTip webinar on what our recent Nature study reveals about AMOC collapse risk, and why its future remains a critical concern.

📅 2 Sep | 14:00–15:00 CEST

🌊 The Atlantic “conveyor belt” (AMOC) is weakening under climate change. A new @nature.com study suggests collapse is unlikely this century, but the risks remain very serious.

Hear from lead author @jonbakerocean.bsky.social in our next webinar.

📅 2 Sep 2025, 2–3PM CEST
🔗 bit.ly/climtip-webi...

YouTube video by Met Office - UK Weather The ocean circulation that keeps Europe warm - UK Weather - Met Office Explains

The future of the AMOC is one of the most urgent — and uncertain — questions in climate science.

In this new Met Office video, I share insights from our Nature paper on how Southern Ocean winds may help prevent an AMOC collapse as the planet warms 🎥 🌊

Atlantification drives recent strengthening of the Arctic overturning circulation A less ice-covered Arctic shifts dense water formation northward, strengthening the Arctic Ocean overturning circulation.

Deep water formation decreased in the Nordic Sea during 1993-2020. This decrease was countered by an increase in deep water formation near the Arctic Mid-Ocean Ridge. Thus, the transport of dense overflow waters to the AMOC's lower limb remained unchanged: 🌊 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

The bold plan to save a vital ocean current with giant parachutes Large sea anchors could be used to drag water under a bold plan to keep the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation moving – but some experts are sceptical

Surely the earliest April Fool’s? This idea is completely bonkers!

P.S. I’m giving a talk at the uni next week on our recent findings, along with a general overview of the science — would be great to see you there!

Not at all — thanks for the interest! I do think there are real merits to those arguments, and I found Rahmstorf’s review thought-provoking. That said, there may also be biases in the stabilising processes, so we also need more research to understand their impact.

That sounds great — I’d definitely tune in to hear more about it! Also great to see the AMOC getting attention on shows like yours.