Courtney Shupert

It is sad and very odd to have a Thursday morning without UI claims data. During previous government shutdowns we at least got this data even if the monthly jobs report was delayed! Weekly, administrative data we've had for years just stopped at a pivotal time for the labor market.

*SUPREME COURT REFUSES TO LET TRUMP IMMEDIATELY OUST FED'S COOK

@chrisrugaber.bsky.social asked a good Q in yesterday's Fed press conference--could tariffs be reducing labor demand as companies unable to pass them along thru higher prices to cautious consumers protect margins instead by reducing hiring & labor costs. That seems to be just what CEOs are reporting

Over 80% of those surveyed expect dissents at today's FOMC meeting

Dissents are also widely expected today, with almost a third of survey participants expecting both hawkish dissents from those preferring to hold rates steady and dovish dissents from those preferring a larger than 25bp rate cut today. We last saw simultaneous hawk/dove dissents in 2019.

Views are mixed on what the FOMC's 2025 dot plot will show

The Fed is widely expected to lower rates 25bps today. Much less clear is what the 2025 and 2026 dot plot distribution will show. Our survey of market participants last week revealed views are very mixed on the outlook for future cuts. @jc-econ.bsky.social @laurarosner.bsky.social

The importance of setting up the right incentive structures in designing policy doesn't get the attention it deserves--set up bad incentives, get bad results

Exclusive: Fed Governor Cook declared her Atlanta property as “vacation home,” documents show A loan estimate for an Atlanta home purchased by Lisa Cook, the Federal Reserve governor accused of mortgage fraud by the Trump administration, shows that Cook had declared the property as a “vacation home,” according to a document reviewed by Reuters.

Well would you look at that, looks like charges against Governor Cook were based on incomplete and misleading information...

www.reuters.com/world/us/fed...

Last call! We close up the survey tonight
survey.alchemer.com/s3/8460596/M...

Unsurprisingly, showboaty immigration raids have large economic costs. How much money did we waste harassing a bunch of autoworkers, and how much money will we lose as companies cut investment in response?

Looks like there was an extension of the deadline for disaster unemployment assistance in Texas, but folks rushing to file ahead of the original Sept 4 deadline could have driven part of the pop in TX initial UI claims gov.texas.gov/news/post/go...

a graph of US coffee prices

Graph of intense pain and suffering (this is after the 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee)

Yes, quite a chunky increase for TX initial claims to double wk/wk NSA

Yep, 15k+ wk/wk in TX initial claims seems a bit chunky

Oh the Thanksgiving-dinner price indicators are going to be fun this year.

🦃

Agreed

An Update to the Demographic Outlook, 2025 to 2055 CBO projects that the U.S. population will increase from 350 million people in 2025 to 367 million people in 2055. It will be smaller and grow more slowly over the next 30 years, on average, than the ...

Source: www.cbo.gov/publication/...

"CBO estimates that the 2025 reconciliation act will result in the removal of 290,000 immigrants and the voluntary emigration of 30,000 people from 2026 to 2030. In addition, 50,000 immigrants will be detained per day, on average, over the 2026-2029 period as a result of the law."

CBO also estimates fewer people will emigrate (leave the US) in 2025 compared to 2024, though this is almost entirely offset by an increase in the number of people forcibly removed

CBO shows immigration is down dramatically across multiple categories in 2025 compared to 2024 (this includes people who entered at ports of entry, those applying for asylum, and estimates of undocumented individuals)

CBO's latest projections of net immigration from 2025-2033 are much smaller compared to their January 2025 estimates

CBO's latest demographic projections feature MUCH lower population growth due to a big decrease in net immigration compared to the start of the year

Please share your views on the US economy and monetary policy through our Shadow Survey of Market Participants and in return we will send you the complete results with the views of >100k market participants. We close it up Thursday
survey.alchemer.com/s3/8460596/M...

What is notable about the judge's ruling is that is decisive about what is and is not cause as it relates to the Fed. It involves behavior in office and whether an official is executing their statutory duties. It does not involve conduct occurring before their time in office

Statement from the National Association of Business Economics in light of ongoing attacks on the quality and integrity of US data and BLS staff. It is a pretty transparent effort to reduce transparency and accountability, not increase it
@nabe-econ.bsky.social
nabe.com/common/Uploa...

Here's an interesting find. From the higher-quality CES data, men have lost 56,000 jobs over the past 4 months, with women gaining 76% of the jobs in 2025 (compared to ~50% normally).

Trump's effort to bring back men jobs with tariffs has backfired spectacularly, causing those industries to shrink.

a graph of unemployment rates by race

The unemployment rate for Black Americans rose to 7.5% in August, the highest level since 2021 and a nearly 1.5% increase from the start of this year

I'm guessing journos are going to stop asking me why the "hard data" are so good, given the economic news has been so grim.

The lesson I hope they draw is an eternal one: Bad policy leads to bad outcomes, but the actual economy doesn't move at the pace of the political cycle.

Job growth has been essentially zero since January in industries that rely more on immigrants.

chart showing declining pace of nonfarm payroll growth on a 3, 6, and 12 month basis

Chart showing rising unemployment rates

22k job growth + highest unemployment rate since 2021

Today's ISM survey commentary is fun:

"Tariffs continue to wreak havoc"

"There is absolutely no activity in the transportation equipment industry. This is 100 percent attributable to current tariff policy.

"We are also in stagflation: Prices are up due to material tariffs, but volume is way off.”

Some assume Gov Cook's guilt b/c she did not publicly deny the allegations. Serious people don't stage careful legal defense by tweet...but today's filings include such denials if you need to scratch that itch...also: "That the President says he has found a 'cause' does not magically make it so."