Pierre Lievers

EU leaders will debate soon the future of EU defence policy and the debate centres around "intergovernmental solutions" like using the ESM to finance increased defense spending.

This totally misses the mark in my view. We are beating around the bush. It's time for a real debate - and decisions:

Another example of how innovation cycles will impact future of conflict. UK succesfully testing DragonFire, aimed to come in at $12.50 a shot. Big potential if deployed in significant numbers. Could in long-term counter impact of drones on battlefield.

New ECB estimates on impact of NGEU on Euro Area growth. With an investment of around 0.7% of EA GDP per year, the EA gains 0.8 to 1.2 percentage points GDP per year by 2031 on average. Very limited multiplier on average but bigger for ITA & ESP.

www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpo...

Striking report from Kiel Institute showing the scale of the challenge for European rearmament:
- Russian production of key weapon systems now exceeds the levels of material losses in Ukraine.
- Currently Russia can replicate size of the Bundeswehr in 6-12 months.
www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Da...

4 days later and ATACMs, Storm Shadows, RS-26's and Yemeni mercenaries have entered the battle. What else is to come until the 20th of January when Trump takes office?

First the North Koreans. Then the news of Chinese drones being used in the war. Now a Chinese ship being possibly involved in sabotage (in the words of Pistorius). The conflict is expanding...

SPD-Chefin Esken: „Die Schuldenbremse ist aus der Zeit gefallen“ Die SPD will nach der Wahl die Schuldenbremse reformieren: Wir sprechen mit SPD-Ko-Chefin Saskia Esken darüber, wann eine schwäbische Hausfrau Kredite aufnimmt und warum sie an Bundeskanzler Olaf Scho...

Good FAZ podcast with party leader of SPD. SPD is pleading for a golden rule for investment in the Schuldenbremse reform. Seems to be openings on this from Merz as well. If implemented, credibility of revised SGP framework that Lindner pushed for is dead on arrival.

www.faz.net/podcasts/f-a...

Eurobonds for defence: first tentative green light arrives Representatives of the governments of five EU countries and the United Kingdom met in Warsaw to renew support for Ukraine and to discuss the future of NATO. It was an opportunity to put the evergreen ...

German or Green pivot on eurobonds for defence? With Lindner fired and FDP polling below 5%, the German elections and CDU position will determine future eurobonds for defence. Election days before COM 'White Paper for European Defence' with funding options.

www.eunews.it/en/2024/11/1...

Commission could have decided to put this at the top of the agenda by publishing the financing options paper that EUCO asked for multiple times already (first time last March). Instead a 'White Paper on the Future of European Defence' will only be published a year later. Missed opportunity?

Surprising graph from IEA World Energy Employment 2024: more fossil fuel jobs than clean energy jobs added in Europe in 2023. When will inflection point be reached? What are the implications for EU's green agenda?

Underappreciated chapter in Commission Autumn Forecast on the cost of uncertainty. Sensitivity of consumption and investment to uncertainty has increased compared to the pre-pandemic period. Political uncertainty in France & Germany will have significant effect on investment down the line.

Good overview of additional public financing needs for Germany from @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social. Total estimate of 782 billion until 2030. Calls into question both Schuldenbremse & revised Stability- and Growthpact. "Dieses Entweder - Oder ist Gift" in the words of Scholz. Ball now in CDU's court.