TuOki^

British American Tobacco: ~10% Dividend Yield for "Glass Half Full" Investors The U.S. earnings algorithm is broken, but non-U.S. growth is holding up. 15% FCF Yield, with buybacks likely to resume, potentially helped by ITC share sale

"British American Tobacco: ~10% Dividend Yield for 'Glass Half Full' Investors" $BTI $PM $MO

US revenues -4.5%; cigarette vol. -11.3%
Europe stable; EM grew
NGP headwind; $BATS lost share
EPS growth driven by buybacks
We see 78% total return (25% IRR)
librariancapital.substack.com/p/british-am...

Ostin $RCO.PA

John Hempton note on Hibbett $HIBB (they own ~5%)

HIBB "important partner" for $NKE, etc. as its City Gear stores key to US "urban" market

EPS "should be above $8 ... and will increase over time"
Share price is $68 (Bronte buying since <$40)

Also nice sneaker market overview
tinyurl.com/2s39j69d

Amer Sports on tulossa takaisin pörssiin. Listsutuminen jenkkeihin. Yhtiö lunastettiin aikoinaan 4,6 miljardin eur hinnalla suomen pörssistä.

Hieman kaupankäyntiä: Salkkushortti $NORDEA. Vähensin hieman $CBAV ja ostin lisää $IMB

Harvard President Claudine Gay has resigned.

I've updated my story on why she was removed (right wing campaign against DEI) and how (mainstream media amplified the story until her position was untenable).

See Rufo's response below: it's open season now.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-campai...

Kirja koroista vnn1.online.fr/Cafeteria/Fi...

"Nigerian competition watchdog fines British American Tobacco $110 mln" (Reuters)

"Allegations of market dominance abuse and infringement of public health regulations"

$BATS allegedly "had also penalised retailers for providing equal platforms for its competitors' products"

tinyurl.com/3ymdee4s

$BATS seemed to have submitted PMTA for non-US Velo nicotine pouches in 22H1

22H1 call: "We have submitted a PMTA in the US for our superior, international Velo product range"

Typical 2-year timetable implies approval in 24H1
Writing as a BAT holder, this is unlikely to matter

$BATS: Europe as warning of what is to come

BAT Europe Adjusted EBIT
2018: £2,150m
2022: £2,082m

Ex-FX Europe Adj. EBIT growth was +3.3%, -2.4%, -1.0%, +7.5%; total 2018-22 growth = +2%

2023 reorg. merges Europe with LATAM to form AME so that Europe numbers no longer visible

Admiral $ADM to acquire More Than Home/Pet biz. (announced 7-Dec)

£82.5m upfront + £32.5m earn-out
Biz. had £165m GWP in 2022
Deal brings renewal rights, brand & ~300 staff
Existing liabilities stay with RSA

RSA UK (acquired by Intact in 2021) already exited UK Motor in Mar-23

Toiveeni joulupukille

Has your percpection about company changed? Do you still consider it as buy?