Bond, Aussie Bond

Or Euro/Chinese and Japanese consumers say enough and we are not buying your products. How do you like that Donald Slump?

Bob you have been working overtime! Your work is greatly appreciated!

Thanks for sharing!

Sadly too true

I know we did a podcast on the mar-a-lago accord a few weeks ago but honestly I can't read another article or sellside report trying to sanewash it. Its one of the silliest ideas I've ever heard, and I've been doing this a long time 🤣

Donald Slump?

M2 M2

YoY%

fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

#econsky

As an Australian investor this is very real!

#Econsky

From Nick T at the WSJ: The Fed holds rates steady.

The median of the rate cut forecasts are unchanged from December (still at a two cut median).

The Fed slows Treasury runoff (QT) to $5 billion per month.

Chris Waller dissents on the QT decision. #EconSky

Fed will slow the pace of balance sheet run off in UST but maintain the pace in MBS. #econsky

All the presidents men….could have been made tomorrow

Would make more sense to show Debt/GDP

Scott Bessant

The Plan to Blow Up the Dollar Podcast Episode · GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish · 26/02/2025 · 33m

Dario does a good job…enjoy. podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/g...

While US fiscal policy is set to tighten, the rest of the world is easing to support flagging economies.

The latest plans from China and Germany suggest nearly 2% increase in stimulus, just at a time when economic expectations are very depressed.

Thread.

German fiscal - this is the most exciting thing to happen to euro-area economists in FOREVER 🤣

two men are shaking hands in front of a car and talking . ALT: two men are shaking hands in front of a car and talking .

#tariffs

Starlink rival in talks to boost satellite services to Ukraine Eutelsat shares surge as investors bet that European competitor could replace Elon Musk’s company

Eutelsat, the owner of OneWeb, a satellite rival to Starlink, said today that it was “actively collaborating with European institutions and business partners,” adding that it had equipment that could be “deployed swiftly in Ukraine to connect the most critical missions and infrastructures.”

DOGE recession? DOGE is unlikely to cause a US recession, but its "move fast and break things" approach raises the risks.

"Will the next recession be the DOGE recession? Probably not, but the ingredients are there: mass layoffs of federal government workers, large cuts in government contracts and grants, a rapid pace, and heightened uncertainty about who will be affected."
stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/doge-reces...

MASSIVE FISCAL PACKAGE OUT OF BERLIN: 12-20%+ of GDP.

- 500 billion fund for public investment
- All defence spending above 1% of GDP not counted for debt brake.
- Federal states can borrow 0.35% p.y. for investment.

Germany is back - economically and militarily.

1/x

Really interesting and dare I say significant piece. Now is the time for the Europeans to issue common debt as panicky investors look to diversify away from the dollar

MORGAN STANLEY: “.. Our most recent survey of ~2,000 US consumers .. showed a marked deterioration in consumers’ outlooks for the US economy and their own household finances. Only 38% of respondents expect the economy to get better in the next six months .. 48% expect the economy to get worse.”

Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: The Tightening Ahead…. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar. The global economy faces a shifting landscape marked by uncertainty and change. In this context, we’ll explore the implications of tightening monetary policies and their potential impact on markets…

Join us tomorrow at 415pm ET for our monthly macro webinar. Sign up ahead to listen live and get your questions answered.

All those 2025 outlooks I read before Xmas 🚮

Tariffs implemented today are just the start of suite of planned levies that would bring US tariffs to above the Smoot-Hawley days in just a few weeks.

Even with modest retaliation by trade partners, these policies are shaping up to slice 2% off US real growth.

Thread.

MBGA!