Rob M-Y

Strava race predictions only work if your heart rate data (max/threshold) is set correctly and your HR monitor gives good data. If monitor is on back of watch, it's likely that data is noisy/poor quality. I use armband HR monitor (Polar/Coros will pair to your Garmin watch)

UK bookies quite slow to react to this, main move was on Betfair around 9-10am. Massive arbs for hours, thousands on exchanges looking to back Greens in to 1.40ish (4/6 widely available with most books) Whoever it was not fussed about price, must have it good bit shorter. Private polling maybe

Printing odds of 20-5 and 25-5 is also a serious offence, if you could add that to your complaint. As well as explaining how none of the bookmakers price anything, they sit just below the betfair exchange offer. And that nobody with an IQ>70 would get a bet on with them. Thanks.

‘It can be quite a thankless job’: why driving examiners are quitting A staff exodus and a broken booking system are helping to cause huge jams in Britain’s driving test system

Decent article on the topic here www.theguardian.com/technology/2...

Next Tory leader market has Rupert Lowe and Nigel Farage around 6th/7th in the betting. You can almost hear Rory Stewart gasping "I mean, that's quite extraordinary!" while praying Boris (3rd fav) doesn't reanimate. They are so lightweight their voters would struggle to even name shadow ministers

Found the full paper (1989) wasn't that convinced by it. There are so many confounding factors, makes it impossible to neatly separate the effect out. But I definitely think advances in car safety have kept some terrible drivers on the road longer. And bigger cars not good for vulnerable road users.

Attitude was kinda laissez-faire even among the police who often took a softly softly approach rather than fining people. Public safety campaigns (clunk-click) ran for many years and weren't changing behaviours. Another 8 yrs for law to apply to rear seat passengers. And still non existent on buses?

Opposition to mandatory seatbelt laws is my favourite one. Many drivers claimed they could be trapped underwater or in a burning car (yeah sure, we've all been there) and thought they'd have better odds if they'd been catapulted through the windscreen 😂

As long as you promise not to give it to Donald, then you get my vote

My favourite example was entire science community refusing to listen to the guy who figured out what caused stomach ulcers. His evidence was irrefutable. But nobody listened, due to his lack of status. So he proved it by giving himself stomach ulcers and curing it. Then he got the Nobel prize.

Whenever you criticise someone's argument, the kneejerk response is the other person will dig themselves in a bit. It's the mark of a rare, open minded person when they actually stop and think about something that conflicts with their worldview. Much easier to say "Lol, nope you're wrong"

Hillary Clinton's "deplorables" comment probably did more harm than good. Calling the other side stupid/selfish will never help win any argument, just leads to more polarisation. Same thing for laughing at Reform voters, end result is their base hardens. Might feel good, but it's counterproductive

Yes that's exactly what I am doing, using electoral calculus (but only as a very rough guide) Plenty of time left for the numbers to change again, hence my original comment "as things stand" If it became a 95%+ chance for any one party, then I would revert to voting Green/LibDem.

I don't want to vote Tory, my initial reply on this thread was to highlight just how absurd it is for someone solidly on the left to rationally be forced into voting for them. You might think my reasoning is flawed, that's no problem. This is why the left nearly always loses; we don't agree on much.

I mostly vote that way (long term, build up the base in progressive party) But your "indistinguishable"/"lose-lose binary" argument is exactly where we differ. I do sometimes think Reform getting in might at least destroy everything (inc FPTP?) but it would be a painful mess that UK can ill afford.

That's all very laudable, and I do sometimes have such conversations. But I would still vote tactically in a close contest to try to avert what I see as a complete disaster. That's what happened in Caerphilly, and I'm glad so many voters got the memo. They showed how you can stop Reform.

If I get a Tory MP, sure. If I get a Reform MP, clearly not. I'd then partially blame non tactical voters. Ultimately this boils down to how big a disaster you think each outcome is, and I know many believe Reform/Tory are roughly the same. My view is Reform would be far worse.

My current Tory MP has been surprisingly helpful when contacted, local Reform councillors seem unhinged and I'm expecting one of them to be the candidate. Might not agree with most of current MP's social media output but under FPTP I can either send ~22p to smaller party or try to stop Farage

Under PR I would be voting Green/LibDem. As things stand in my seat my only option to try to stop Reform getting in is to vote Tory

Because she didn't look up from her phone while curling one out in the sink, while the dog was eating stuff left in the toilet. This is all quite straightforward if you use your imagination.

Friend of mine had similar, dog took her out, broken ankle, off work for a few months. They had owner's details, took legal action for lost earnings. I've been bitten twice by out of control dogs while running, some owners are just hopeless. To be expected when there's zero competency checks...

Local FB recently had police appealing for dog walker to come forward after jogger slowed to pass a family in a public space and got attacked twice by the dog (off lead). Fair few commenters said they felt it was the jogger's fault, one even said they always shout at joggers to walk past their dog

They also have preferential terms of settlement that the rest of us do not (10 years, zero interest) Feels to me like their threats to starve the country if asked to pay the same tax as others have worked. Another govt climbdown, negligible amount now raised, but lots of political capital burned.

Government press release says they will still have 50% relief applied to qualifying assets above the new threshold. So effectively 20% rate of IHT. Also states "A married couple or civil partners can pass on a farm worth up to £5.65 million tax free"

TfL adds more green by default pedestrian crossings Transport for London (TfL) is continuing to roll out Green Person Authority signals at pedestrian crossings in

London started rolling these out in 2021, they are putting more in now. I expect the rest of the country will follow suit in the 2050s 🥳 www.highwaysmagazine.co.uk/news/local-r...

I spotted flu LFT tests in some supermarkets last year - suggests we can identify cases (albeit with a bit of error) fast/cheaply, and differentiate between fluA/fluB/covid/RSV (there's a 4 in 1 test, guessing the NHS use that)

Always felt it's too complex for most people to really understand, and easily dismissed by non believers. It also drags up the idea that the Brexit vote was manipulated, which is now a toxic thing to even suggest. People are too tired, they just want to move on, can't be bothered to think about it.

Nice touch putting the sign up by the tactile paving for sight impaired, what could possibly go wrong.

Fireworks (legally) on sale Oct 15-Nov 10. Two days so far when I didn't hear them. It's four weeks of torture if you have reactive pets, relatives with ASD, small children trying to sleep, work that requires you to get to bed before 11pm. Every night is firework night now, even Halloween. Insane.

Two graphs, showing headline UK general election voting intention by age and gender

The data set JLP published does not show age bands broken down by sex. But Onward (who commissioned poll) report has graph offering this, theirs lets you hover to see %s ukonward.com/reports/ball...