Keith Seibert

I didn’t realize data centers were this geographically concentrated: www.wsj.com/us-news/what...

You've probably seen the CAPE or PE10 ratios for global equities before, but have you seen the E-10?

This chart shows the 10-year moving average of earnings for global equities, and it is extremely telling...

Source: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/charts-of-...

Even as stocks slide, Wall Street is at 'historically extreme valuations,' warns Apollo chief economist | Fortune The latest data underlines a broader concern among analysts that a reckoning is looming for the markets.

The S&P 500 was down by more than a percentage at yesterday’s close, the Dow Jones by near the same, and the Nasdaq was down nearly 2%. The VIX volatility index, by contrast, is up more than 9%—suggesting the turbulence is far from over. trib.al/RnXpGcq

House of the Week: A Curved Mansion in San Francisco A real-estate mogul’s contemporary home sits atop a hill in the city’s Forest Hill neighborhood.

WSJ’s House of the Week brings readers to a curved mansion atop a hill in San Francisco. The Forest Hill house has a distinctive, rounded wing with oversized windows.

S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: November 7, 2025 by John Butters

Read it here: https://bit.ly/3Jzof8b

How bad are SFO flight cancellations and delays today? See data by airline and route These charts show how bad today’s SFO flight cancellations and delays are by airline, destination and origin.

These charts show how bad today’s SFO flight cancellations and delays are by airline, destination and origin.

The S&P 500 dipped below its 50-day moving average this morning for the first time since 4/30/25 — the longest stretch since 2017.

@cnbc.com

From 'Trump dump' to 'Hedge America': Global investors are still hesitant to go all-in on the U.S. Investors are "deliberately excluding the U.S." from new portfolio allocations, one market watcher said.

From 'Trump dump' to 'Hedge America': Global investors are still hesitant to go all-in on the U.S.

Why do stocks go up in the long-run?

(clue 👇 )

(p.s. also in there are some clues as to what makes them go down)

Australia Mandating Three Hours a Day of Free Power for Households Australia will mandate utilities to provide free power to some households during parts of the day in a bid to soak up excess solar generation, reduce power bills and improve grid stability.

Australia will require utilities to provide free power to some households during parts of the day to soak up excess solar generation, reduce power bills, and improve grid stability

Sequoia’s shake-up may be a VC turning point Turnover of leaders shows how hard it can be to ride out the vicious financial and tech cycles

Sequoia’s shake-up may be a VC turning point - column here from Richard Waters www.ft.com/content/1d8f...

The $17bn nuclear start-up without any revenue A nuclear technology company backed by Sam Altman is riding a wave of investor enthusiasm

Are we witnessing an US nuclear renaissance or a stock market bubble? The @financialtimes.com takes a look at Oklo, the Sam Altman-backed company with big ambitions and ties to the White House www.ft.com/content/d87c...

Markets brace for life after global easing cycle The global interest-rate cutting cycle has likely peaked. The question now is when, or if, today's high-flying markets will start to feel the pinch.

Markets brace for life after global easing cycle reut.rs/47MOFLP

Rheinmetall consolidated sales rise 20% in first nine months German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall , one of the main beneficiaries of a boost in European defence spending, reported a 20% rise in consolidated sales, to 7.52 billion euros ($8.77 billion), in the first nine months of the year on Thursday.

Rheinmetall consolidated sales rise 20% in first nine months reut.rs/494uCe3

Private credit’s earnings season doubles as the market’s unofficial stress test. BDCs are off 14% YTD while the S&P 500’s up 16%, yet the “weak link” narrative hasn’t cracked credit quality—at least not yet. Cash flow over confidence, as always. “Private lenders could replace 15% of traditional fixed-income investment, according to Bloomberg Intelligence's Fall 2025 private credit survey.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-04/private-credit-earnings-arrive-amid-fears-of-market-s-weak-link @mohossain @ennovance

Private credit’s earnings season doubles as the market’s unofficial stress test. BDCs are off 14% YTD while the S&P 500’s up 16%, yet the “weak link” narrative hasn’t cracked credit quality—at least not yet. Cash flow over confidence, as always. “Private lenders could replace 15% of traditional fixed-income investment, according to Bloomberg Intelligence's Fall 2025 private credit survey.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-04/private-credit-earnings-arrive-amid-fears-of-market-s-weak-link @mohossain @ennovance

Private credit’s earnings season doubles as the market’s unofficial stress test.

BDCs are off 14% YTD while the S&P 500’s up 16%, yet the “weak link” narrative hasn’t cracked credit quality yet

Private lenders could replace 15% of traditional fixed-income
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

🧨 𝐈𝐬 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐭’𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐉𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐏𝐈𝐊-𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐔𝐩 𝐃𝐨𝐨𝐦 𝐃𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐨𝐚𝐝? 📉 Private credit’s “bad PIK” pile is swelling — now seen as a shadow default rate, hitting 6% vs. 2% in 2021. Deferred interest may soon become deferred pain as 40%+ of borrowers show negative cash flow. Investors, watch the wall of refinancings. ⬇️ Private Credit’s Rising Pile of ‘Bad PIK’ Points to Default Woes https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-31/private-credit-s-rising-pile-of-bad-pik-points-to-default-woes https://x.com/mohossain/status/1985585554424037793?s=46 #privatecredit #credit #debt #RIA #Privateequity #fund #fee

🧨 𝐈𝐬 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐭’𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐉𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐏𝐈𝐊-𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐔𝐩 𝐃𝐨𝐨𝐦 𝐃𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐨𝐚𝐝? 📉 Private credit’s “bad PIK” pile is swelling — now seen as a shadow default rate, hitting 6% vs. 2% in 2021. Deferred interest may soon become deferred pain as 40%+ of borrowers show negative cash flow. Investors, watch the wall of refinancings. ⬇️ Private Credit’s Rising Pile of ‘Bad PIK’ Points to Default Woes https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-31/private-credit-s-rising-pile-of-bad-pik-points-to-default-woes https://x.com/mohossain/status/1985585554424037793?s=46 #privatecredit #credit #debt #RIA #Privateequity #fund #fee

🧨 𝐈𝐬 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐭’𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐉𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐏𝐈𝐊-𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐔𝐩 𝐃𝐨𝐨𝐦 𝐃𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐨𝐚𝐝? 📉 Private credit’s “bad PIK” pile is swelling — now seen as a shadow default rate, hitting 6% vs. 2% in 2021. Deferred interest may soon become deferred pain as 40%+ of borrowers show negative cash flow. Investors, watch the wall of refinancings. ⬇️ Private Credit’s Rising Pile of ‘Bad PIK’ Points to Default Woes https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-31/private-credit-s-rising-pile-of-bad-pik-points-to-default-woes https://x.com/mohossain/status/1985585554424037793?s=46 #privatecredit #credit #debt #RIA #Privateequity #fund #fee

🧨 𝐈𝐬 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐭’𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐉𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐏𝐈𝐊-𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐔𝐩 𝐃𝐨𝐨𝐦 𝐃𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐨𝐚𝐝? 📉 Private credit’s “bad PIK” pile is swelling — now seen as a shadow default rate, hitting 6% vs. 2% in 2021. Deferred interest may soon become deferred pain as 40%+ of borrowers show negative cash flow. Investors, watch the wall of refinancings. ⬇️ Private Credit’s Rising Pile of ‘Bad PIK’ Points to Default Woes https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-31/private-credit-s-rising-pile-of-bad-pik-points-to-default-woes https://x.com/mohossain/status/1985585554424037793?s=46 #privatecredit #credit #debt #RIA #Privateequity #fund #fee

🧨 𝐈𝐬 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐭’𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐉𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐏𝐈𝐊-𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐔𝐩 𝐃𝐨𝐨𝐦 𝐃𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐨𝐚𝐝?
📉 Private credit’s “bad PIK” pile is swelling — now seen as a shadow default rate, hitting 6% vs. 2% in 2021. Deferred interest may soon become deferred pain as 40%+ of borrowers show negative cash flow
x.com/mohossain/st...

Why BlackRock says November could be the best month this year for municipal bonds November has been the best month of the year for municipal bonds over the last 10 years, BlackRock says. It expects that to continue this year.

Why BlackRock says November could be the best month this year for municipal bonds

Why the bond market still relies on voice The machines didn’t push the humans out of fixed income trading — they made more space for them

Why the bond market still relies on voice on.ft.com/4nGekf4 | opinion

With fewer safety nets, 'robbed' Gen X is facing a retirement crisis, top advisor says Gen Xers are the least financially prepared generation for retirement by nearly every measure, according to a recent report.

Gen Xers are the least financially prepared generation for retirement by nearly every measure, according to a recent report.

Record $2.2bln ChrysCapital PE fundraise opens to Indian LPs for first time India's ChrysCapital has raised $2.2 billion for its tenth fund, making it the country's biggest-ever private equity fund, and drawing strong demand from domestic investors for the first time, the firm said on Wednesday.

Record $2.2bln ChrysCapital PE fundraise opens to Indian LPs for first time reut.rs/3JGmJAZ

Sequoia Capital's Botha steps down as top boss Roelof Botha will step down as the managing partner at Sequoia Capital after a little more than three years in the role.

Sequoia Capital's Botha steps down as top boss reut.rs/47CjMcK

UBS chair warns of ‘looming systemic risk’ from private credit ratings Colm Kelleher says insurers are shopping for grades as banks did before 2008 financial crisis

“If you look at the insurance business there is a looming systemic risk coming through because of lack of effective regulation. In 2007 subprime [lending] was all about rating agency arbitrage.” www.ft.com/content/73ee...

Do you want the Good news or the Bad news?

Good news for #Gold = strong trend, monetary tailwinds, investor psychology.

The bad news = expensive valuations.

Here's the key things to consider (+methodology): gold.topdowncharts.com/p/goldnugget...

The Goldman Sachs TMT “momentum pair” chart is fun.

$GSTMTMOM

This chart from John Authers' daily note gives us a sense of the incredible outperformance of tech names relative to other companies in the S&P 500.

#economy #tech #stocks #markets #investing #investors @johnauthers.bsky.social

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley warn of a market correction: 'Things run and then they pull back' Global markets may be due for a reality check after this year's relentless rally, said Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley warn of a market correction: 'Things run and then they pull back'

An influential group representing some of the industry’s largest backers has warned that the number of deals needed to deploy wealthy individuals’ cash could pull managers’ attention away from investing the capital of pension plans and endowments on.ft.com/43QrwGO

Private credit fundraising in 2025: Top quartile ≠ fast track. Even the best are waiting 25 months to close. The Fed didn’t just raise rates—it raised the patience premium. ht: BBG

Private credit fundraising in 2025: Top quartile ≠ fast track. Even the best are waiting 25 months to close. The Fed didn’t just raise rates—it raised the patience premium.

ht: BBG

Where do stock market returns come from?

-Dividends (consistently)

-Earnings growth (most of the time)

-Valuation changes (...sometimes yes/no)

from the Weekly ChartStorm: www.chartstorm.info/p/chartstorm...

Investors Eye Quick-Twitch Quant Strategies to Handle Next Shock Investors are increasingly turning to bank quantitative investment strategies for protection that will react faster during sudden market upsets.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...