David Milliken

Random thoughts on Gorton & Denton:

1. Found this genuinely hard to call. Being familiar with the area wasn't a huge help - probably the first election I've covered where I didn't get a very strong steer in any direction.

The Bank of England does not need to ‘follow the Fed’ The decisions of the US central bank can have a mixed impact on the domestic UK economy

The policies of the Fed impact economies globally, but that doesn’t mean other central banks have to follow the Fed. If the Fed were to implement surprise rate cuts, the Bank of England should arguably do the exact opposite.

My latest in @FT www.ft.com/content/fa99...

It’s been Reuters’ style for as long as I’ve been working here! I suspect it’s because we work globally at speed and £ symbols aren’t common on non-UK keyboards.

Not my call but I’ll pass the feedback on!

Beyond that, approaches to reduced minimum wages for younger workers vary even more.
France and a few other countries don't really do this; the UK pays 18-20 year olds 85% of the adult wage; the Netherlands about half.
(And it gets more complicated if you look at apprenticeships, tax breaks etc.)

Yes - the OECD has some reasonable data on this: relative to median earnings, the UK's minimum wage is the third-highest among advanced economies after New Zealand and France.

data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?tm=minim...

8/ That said, it's hard to disentangle more recent headwinds like a sluggish economy (possibly now turning round) that tends to push up youth unemployment, the April 2025 NICs rise (from which under 21s are largely exempt), AI (for grad roles), and more general inflation pressures on businesses....

7/ HMRC data shows the number of 18-24 year olds on company payrolls peaked in March 2023 - just before a 10-11% rise in the minimum wage and another the year after

Chart showing the correlation between job losses in a sector between March and October 2025 and the percentage of employees on or below the National Living Wage, by the NIESR think tank.

6/ Analysis by the NIESR think tank shows bigger job losses in sectors with more workers paid close to the National Living Wage (and ICT - possibly an AI effect)

Nine line charts, reflecting job vacancies in the UK, Germany and France for high, medium and low-paid roles, rebased to February 2020

5/ Indeed data shows a sharper fall in low-paid vacancies in the UK than in Germany, France or elsewhere, both in outright terms and relative to higher-paid jobs

Line chart of UK's main minimum wage rate and rates for apprentices and workers aged 18-20 from April 2018 to April 2026

4/ Britain's minimum wage is fairly high by European standards and has risen faster for younger workers. While it's hard to prove this is the reason for higher youth unemployment, there's some compelling evidence that this has hurt employment

3/ Fair or not, lower wages and/or a willingness to work erratic shifts are a key reason why some employers will take a chance on a younger worker without much specific experience

2/ People who were successful often had some kind of personal connection with the employer, either pre-existing or built up through trying to meet at the shop/bar etc

1/ Job search for young people without much experience (and sometimes limited available hours around school/university) can be miserable - dozens of online applications, very little feedback (and possibly better success with employers' own sites than general job portals)

Rising UK youth unemployment tests government over wage pledge The rise in Britain's youth unemployment rate to a 10-year high is posing tough questions for the country's centre-left government about its policy of phasing out a lower minimum wage for younger work...

Today @reuters.com published this piece of mine on rising youth unemployment. I'd (obviously) encourage you to read the full thing, but a few impressions I got in the mean time...

www.reuters.com/business/wor...

Rising UK youth unemployment tests government over wage pledge The rise in Britain's youth unemployment rate to a 10-year high is posing tough questions for the country's centre-left government about its policy of phasing out a lower minimum wage for younger work...

The rise in Britain's youth unemployment rate to a 10-year high is posing tough questions for the country's centre-left government about its policy of phasing out a lower minimum wage for younger workers.

✍️ @davidmilliken.bsky.social
www.reuters.com/business/wor...

Seasonal pattern in UK GDP data raises suspicions among economists British economic growth data released on Thursday showed a marked seasonal pattern for the fourth year in a row, adding to economists' concerns about numbers from the Office for National Statistics.

Full story here: www.reuters.com/world/uk/sea...

To be clear, the ONS report does do an analysis over just the last 5 years and doesn't find significant evidence of seasonality either. I'd welcome insight from anyone who's familiar with the sensitivity of these tests...!

Thanks - I've have to look more closely at the data to be sure.

(Services is almost 80% of UK GDP so will always be the most visible driver, and construction and production are a bit noisier in general so seasonality there might be present, just harder to spot.)

This is what the ONS concluded when it looked into data up to the first half of 2025 in September: "no residual seasonality".

(Though if it's looking at all data since the 1950s, then I'm not sure if it would easily pick up a change since 2022?)

www.ons.gov.uk/economy/gros...

I did a quick check earlier today and no other G7 country shows a similar pattern.

ING's James Smith reckons it's been thrown awry by a surge in inflation in 2022 that led to bigger price rises in H1.

Matt Swannell at EY thinks the seasonal adjustment might be tuned on pre-COVID data.

Bar chart of quarterly UK GDP growth from Q1 2022 to Q4 2025 inclusive, showing stronger growth in Q1 and Q2 each year than in Q3 or Q4.

Today's ONS data confirmed a bit of a pattern: since 2022, Q1 has always been the strongest quarter for GDP growth, Q2 the second strongest and Q3 and Q4 third or fourth.

The ONS looked into this in September and didn't find a problem, but not all economists are convinced...

Chart of sterling against the dollar on 22/02/2026, up to 1145 GMT

And sterling...

Gilts selling off a wee bit, possibly in light of this report that Manchester MP Andrew Gwynne is stepping down - potentially making way for Andy Burnham.

Relatively clear move (gilt future is top blue line, bottom third is trading volumes)

I did try to work out what measure of UK energy consumption might have fallen by two thirds since 1990 and gave up…

Investment in housing and utilities could reduce government waste and boost growth if combined with the kind of collaborative, long-term planning that has served Manchester's economy, @andyburnham.bsky.social told @reuters.com

"That is the way to reassure markets."
www.reuters.com/world/uk/sta...

Yes. She regularly gets wrongly accused and reliably votes to banish her accuser. Plus it will keep up the suspicion around her. (Only question is if tonight’s performance was finally enough to get everyone to accept she’s faithful.)

But it sounded like the traitors were going for one of themselves

Starter pack of those who frequently comment and campaign on Social Security policy ...

If you're interested in social security policy, follow these accounts and, as ever, let me know any good omissions ...
go.bsky.app/S8a5jDX

UK GDP grew more than expected in November, boosted by JLR rebound Britain's economy grew more strongly than expected in November, boosted by the return to normal production at Jaguar Land Rover after a cyberattack which hit the carmaker and its suppliers.

UK GDP grew more than expected in November, boosted by JLR rebound - www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...

Could a Gilt Market Shock Derail the Economy in 2026? - NIESR Explore the risks facing the UK bond market in 2026. This blog explores how a shock in the US Treasury market could trigger a gilt market sell-off.

NIESR has just published a piece on how any serious problems in US Treasuries are likely to spill over to gilts (gilt and Treasury yield moves are already pretty closely correlated, and often gilt moves can be even sharper) niesr.ac.uk/blog/could-g...