Michael Lowry

A new face in the Atlantic. This is the first time the name #Dexter has been used, replacing Dorian after 2019.

Tropical Storm #Dexter ADVISORY 1 issued. Tropical storm #Dexter forms over the western atlantic. Link

Now officially Dexter 👇

Invest 95L (soon-to-be Dexter) definitely getting a big assist from record warm waters between the southeast U.S. and Bermuda. Doesn't take too much with the preexisting frontal support to spark a quick tropical storm. Thankfully, this one's moving away.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL<br>TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM<br><br>Tropical Weather Outlook<br>NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br>800 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025<br><br>For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:<br><br>1. Western Atlantic (AL95):<br>Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in <br>association with a low pressure system located a few hundred miles <br>east of the North Carolina coast. The low is producing gale-force <br>winds, and it appears that the system is becoming separated from <br>the nearby frontal zone to its north and west. If the shower <br>and thunderstorm activity persists, the low would continue to <br>acquire tropical characteristics, with a tropical storm likely to <br>form later tonight or on Monday while moving east-northeastward at <br>10 to 15 mph over the western Atlantic, away from the coast of North <br>Carolina. For additional information, including gale warnings, <br>please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather <br>Service.<br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.<br><br>2. Central Tropical Atlantic:<br>A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on <br>Monday. Thereafter, some gradual development of the wave is <br>possible, and a tropical depression could form late this week while <br>it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical <br>Atlantic.<br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.<br><br>3. Off the Southeastern United States:<br>An area of low pressure could form in a couple of days a few hundred <br>miles off the coast of the southeastern United States. Some <br>gradual development of this system is possible during the middle or <br>latter part of the week as the system drifts to the west or <br>northwest. <br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.<br><br><br><br><br>High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be <br>found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and <br>online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php<br><br><br>Forecaster Berg<br><br><br>

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image

NHC Atlantic Outlook update for Sun, 03 Aug 2025 23:27:14 UTC
Additional Details Here.

You get an invest, and you get an invest, and you get an invest, everybody gets an invest!!

Happy August.

NEW: Extraordinary footage has emerged of the huge tsunami that hit Russia’s remote Kamchatka peninsula after the 8.8 magnitude earthquake on July 30th.

(🎥 Doni Nikz)

@climatecentral.org has made a bunch of superstar ex NOAA hires, most recently picking up Adam Smith and Ellen Mecray. Adam ran the billion dollar disaster database, and Ellen led the charge on sector impacts, so I'm so happy to see this dynamic duo back in the saddle (via @tdiliberto.bsky.social)

8/3 2pm- The Tropics are heating up with 3 systems that we are monitoring. #AL95 offshore of the Carolinas has a high chance of becoming a TS by Monday as it moves away from the US. Two other systems have some development potential this week- ... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1952065645559894497

#95L is getting itself together pretty quickly. It's not far from being a tropical/subtropical cyclone, but it's doesn't seem to have detached from the front yet. Will probably need a little more time. Definitely overachieving guidance which can play catch up in setups like these

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL<br>TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM<br><br>Tropical Weather Outlook<br>NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br>800 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025<br><br>For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:<br><br>1. Western Atlantic (AL95):<br>A non-tropical area of low pressure located along a frontal boundary <br>about 180 miles off the coast of North Carolina is producing <br>disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are <br>marginally conducive for this system to become a tropical or <br>subtropical depression or storm today or on Monday while it moves <br>east-northeastward at about 10 mph, away from the coast of North <br>Carolina. After Monday, environmental conditions become less <br>conducive for development. For additional information, including <br>gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National <br>Weather Service.<br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.<br><br>2. Central Tropical Atlantic:<br>A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in <br>the next day or two. Thereafter, some gradual development of the <br>wave is possible during the middle to latter part of next week while <br>it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical <br>Atlantic.<br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.<br><br><br><br><br>High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service<br>can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 <br>KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php<br><br><br>Forecaster Bucci<br><br><br>

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image

NHC Atlantic Outlook update for Sun, 03 Aug 2025 11:28:00 UTC
Additional Details Here.

The New York - Philadelphia - Wilmington urban corridor has felt small earthquakes roughly every 2-3 years. Moderately damaging earthquakes strike somewhere in the urban corridor roughly twice a century. So infrequent but not weird

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL<br>TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM<br><br>Tropical Weather Outlook<br>NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br>200 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025<br><br>For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:<br><br>1. Western Atlantic:<br>An area of low pressure is expected to form tonight or on Sunday <br>along a frontal system off of the southeastern coast of the United <br>States. Additional slow development could occur through Monday as <br>the system moves slowly east-northeastward. After that time, <br>environmental conditions become less conducive for development.<br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.<br><br><br><br>Forecaster Beven<br><br><br>

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image

NHC Atlantic Outlook update for Sat, 02 Aug 2025 17:34:58 UTC
Additional Details Here.

Also historically the government contracts with the private sector to obtain the tools, not real-time data (with the ocassional exception, of course). Imagine our public safety hinging on a patchwork of subscription services. What could go wrong?

I'm as big a fan of private weathertech as anyone, but these aren't the backbone of our weather observations. There's also a definite overpromise/underdeliver as far as operational utility. This isn't to minimize the important work, but it's unfair to characterize the extras as a viable replacement.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL<br>TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM<br><br>Tropical Weather Outlook<br>NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br>800 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025<br><br>For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:<br><br>1. Western Atlantic:<br>An area of low pressure is expected to form on Saturday along a <br>frontal system off of the southeastern coast of the United States. <br>Additional slow development could occur through early next week as <br>the system moves slowly east-northeastward.<br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.<br><br><br><br>Forecaster Beven<br><br><br>

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image

NHC Atlantic Outlook update for Sat, 02 Aug 2025 11:54:58 UTC
Additional Details Here.

It's refreshing on this platform to receive a blue check mark that I neither requested nor paid for. I enjoy being part of a social network that I'm not marketed to unless I choose it. No social media platform is perfect, but Bluesky is taking the right approach.

Agree with Eric here. Not exactly a pattern I like to see. We'll see how it plays out the next few months for us.

A wonderful break from the #summer heat for many along and north of the I-40 corridor in the central and east U.S.! #FallLike #weather

Map showing 24-hour temperature drops from 1pm Thursday to 1pm Friday (EDT), with the largest decreases (up to 30°F) in the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic

There was a big temperature swing for a large part of the eastern U.S. over the last 24 hours behind a cold front. Blues highlight the biggest swings, including Washington/Dulles Airport which was 92°F yesterday at 1pm and only 69°F today. Visit weather.gov for your weekend.

RealClimate: The Endangerment of the Endangerment Finding? RealClimate: The EPA, along with the "Climate Working Group" (CWG) of usual suspects (plus Judith Curry and Ross McKitrick) at DOE, have just put out a document for public comment their attempt to res...

AI in the DOE report? This ref (p29) is fake:

Lee, S., Byrne, M. P., Loikith, P. C., & O’Dell, C. W. (2024). Zonal contrasts of the tropical Pacific climate predicted by a global constraint. Climate Dynamics, 62(1–2), 229–246. doi:10.1007/s00382-023-06741-7

www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...

Bar chart showing the frequency of Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane activity broken down by day across 1988-2024. For a given day, the percent represents how many of those years had an active tropical storm or hurricane. For example, the percent is 19% on July 31, meaning only 19% of these years had an active storm on this date. This activity is computed via ACE, or accumulated cyclone energy, which is only calculated when a tropical storm or hurricane is active (thus excluding tropical depressions).

"Where are all the Atlantic hurricanes?"

Yes, the Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1. But between Jun 1 and Jul 31, it's more likely for a given day to have ZERO active tropical storms or hurricanes!

The below chart breaks it down by day. Through Jul 31, most days are below 25%!

Attention hurricane enthusiasts, connoisseurs, experts: the Atlantic season is entering the active months (Aug-Sep-Oct) so what better time to remind you of this Starter Pack so you can get reliable information and insights!
go.bsky.app/88mXQKD

August Hurricanes: Where Do They Form? Where Do They Hit? August is a decisive turning point in the hurricane season with some of the most notorious hurricanes in history

If hurricane season is a golf tournament, August starts weekend play. The stakes are higher, and it's often when we learn what the season has in the tank. In today's newsletter, I analyze where August hurricanes historically form and who's most at risk. ⬇️

It's interesting to see the party-agnostic attacks on "mainstream media" when social media and personality-based news are the main sources for Americans. Mainstream media nowadays looks more like Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram.

Our research on the connection between African easterly waves (AEW) and ENSO was accepted! Using a wave tracker, we show that there is increased circulation, moisture, and convection around AEWs during La Niña, especially in the wave's mid- to low- levels near Africa. This may have TC implications.

WMO certifies megaflash lightning record in USA The megaflash occurred in October 2017, during a major thunderstorm complex. It extended from eastern Texas to near Kansas City - equivalent to the distance between Paris and Venice in Europe. It woul...

There is a new world record for the longest lightning flash - 515 miles!

The World Meteorological Organization has certified a lightning flash that extended from near Dallas, TX, to near Kansas City, MO, on October 22, 2017, as the new longest lightning flash.

⚡🧪🧵

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wmo.int/media/news/w...

I've no doubt you would've vouched for it!

I fully expected the satellite data to be turned off this week based on conversations with officials only a few days ago. I'm glad the seriousness of this got to the right folks and more sensible solutions ultimately prevailed. This has global implications.

Plot showing the percentage of SSMIS scans to all global tropical cyclone imagery from conical scanners from 1987 to 2023. The plot shows the dramatic rise in reliance on U.S. Defense operated SSMIS since around 2010, with about 65% of all conical microwave scans coming from SSMIS in recent years. Data credit: Naufal Ranzin/Colorado State University/TC PRIMED

I cannot overstate what a victory yesterday's about-face was for hurricane forecasting. We're lucky to get 6 or 7 scans of a hurricane from these critical satellites on a *good* day. The defense satellites account for 60-70% of them. This would've been a massive, unforced error.