Michael Lowry

My 2 year old has learned that if he asks to "look at the radar" there's a good chance he'll get to see my phone :)

Tropical Storm Jerry forms over the central Atlantic and becomes the tenth named storm of the season.

I assume this is due to some convective parametrization issue? We've seen this for several years now but seems noticeably worse this season, especially at shorter lead times.

000WTNT35 KNHC 071434TCPAT5 BULLETINTropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 1NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1020251100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC......THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...11.5N 44.6WABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor theprogress of Jerry as Tropical Storm Watches could be requiredlater today or tonight. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK----------------------At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 44.6 West. Jerry is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consultproducts from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be foundat: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at[X].shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$Forecaster Cangialosi

Atlantic Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 1 issued at Tue, 07 Oct 2025 14:35:01 +0000
...TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...
Additional Details Here.

Tropical Depression Forming, Could Become a Hurricane as It Nears the Leeward Islands Thursday and Friday Soon-to-be Jerry could move precariously close to the easternmost Caribbean islands as a hurricane by Thursday and Friday

By the looks of it, we'll have Jerry sooner rather than later. Soon-to-be Jerry is poised to be a hurricane as it passes precariously close to parts of the Leeward Islands by late week. Meanwhile I talk about the coastal storm closer to home for next week.

NHC outlook 8pm EDT Oct 6th: 1) System in C Tropical Atlantic (#AL95) has high genesis chance (90%🔴). Northern Leeward Islands should monitor. 2) Trough crossing Yucatan has low genesis chance (10%🟡) in Bay of Campeche before moving into... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1975355238052946275

This image of Hurricane Humberto contains the visible (band I1) product from the S-NPP weather satellite from 17:10 UTC on 2025-09-27.

On September 27, 2025, Hurricane Humberto reached its peak intensity as a Category Five hurricane well northeast of Puerto Rico on its journey across the western Atlantic Ocean. The polar orbiting satellite Suomi-NPP captured a spectacular view of the clear eye of Humberto. (1/5)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL<br>TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM<br><br>Tropical Weather Outlook<br>NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br>200 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025<br><br>For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:<br><br>1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):<br>Visible satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure <br>located over the tropical central Atlantic is gradually becoming <br>better organized. Environmental conditions appear generally <br>conducive for slow development of this system, and a tropical <br>depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while <br>it moves quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical <br>Atlantic. This system is expected to be near or north of the <br>northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests there <br>should monitor its progress. <br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.<br><br>2. Northwestern Caribbean and Southwestern Gulf:<br>A trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean <br>Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and <br>thunderstorms. This system is expected to move across the Yucatan <br>Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday, and then track over the Bay of <br>Campeche late Tuesday through Wednesday. Some slow development of <br>this system is possible over the Bay of Campeche around the middle <br>of the week. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and <br>gusty winds are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, <br>Belize, and southern Mexico during the next few days.<br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.<br><br><br><br>Forecaster Cangialosi<br><br><br>

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image

NHC Atlantic Outlook update for Mon, 06 Oct 2025 17:27:57 UTC
Additional Details Here.

Central Atlantic disturbance 95L likely to develop » Yale Climate Connections The system is likely to be near the Leeward Islands on Thursday or Friday.

The next Atlantic threat figures to pass just northeast of the Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday. @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I have the latest: yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/10/cent...

This is the PNS for the #EnderlinTornado upgrade to EF-5, the first since the #MooreTornado on May 20, 2013. #Tornado #EnhancedFujitaScale #EFScale

12 years is a long time. A good stretch. But the EF-5 “drought” has ended.

Also, this is a lesson to the Monday morning quarterbacks that this took *3 months* to confirm. Good analysis takes time. So save your hot takes immediately after an event.

Tropical System Likely to Form, Could Strengthen as It Nears the Easternmost Caribbean Islands Later this Week Invest 95L could become Jerry before the week is out, passing near or north of the Lesser Antilles

The only game in town this week is Invest 95L, which looks poised to become Jerry in the days ahead. It'll make a close pass to the islands, though trends favor a miss north. Something to watch. Also, I spy a cold front over South Florida... 👀

Football on a hail-covered field. That’s a new one to me.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL<br>TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM<br><br>Tropical Weather Outlook<br>NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br>800 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025<br><br>For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:<br><br>1. Bahamas and Southern Florida:<br>A weak area of low pressure located near the central and <br>northwestern Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity. <br>This system is expected to drift west-northwestward across the <br>northwestern Bahamas and toward southern Florida during the next <br>couple of days. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent <br>significant development of the low, however the combination of the <br>disturbance and the broader remnant boundary is still expected to <br>produce heavy rainfall and possible flooding across portions of <br>Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend.<br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.<br><br>2. Tropical Atlantic:<br>A tropical wave just off the coast of Africa is producing a broad <br>area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is <br>forecast to interact with another disturbance over the eastern <br>tropical Atlantic, and then move westward after that. Environmental <br>conditions are expected to become conducive for some slow <br>development of the system in a few days, and a tropical depression <br>could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end of next <br>week.<br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.<br><br><br><br>Forecaster Bucci<br><br><br>

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image

NHC Atlantic Outlook update for Fri, 03 Oct 2025 23:45:45 UTC
Additional Details Here.

Two areas of interest to watch in first week of October Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.

As of today, 2025 has had more ACE accrued than 2024 did by now (and 2022, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2009, etc). Historically, roughly 20% of a season's activity still lies ahead.
bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/10/two-...

Gust of 89.8mph reported at Eglinton, Northern Ireland at 1520 UTC #StormAmy

METAR EGAE 031520Z 23055G78KT

No Slowdown in Hurricane Season to Start October Area near Florida unlikely to develop but could enhance weekend rains while development odds are growing for the central Atlantic next week

The hurricane season isn't slowing anytime soon. Thankfully the area near Florida is unlikely to develop but will keep the wet weather around this weekend. It's the system to the east that looks like the next storm candidate, especially by late next week.

Following their dance together near the United States' East Coast, the last few days saw Hurricane Imelda absorb the remnants of Hurricane Humberto after its dissipation.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL<br>TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM<br><br>Tropical Weather Outlook<br>NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br>200 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025<br><br>For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:<br><br>Active Systems:<br>The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on <br>Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda, located east-northeast of Bermuda.<br><br>1. Southwestern Atlantic:<br>An area of low pressure may form along a remnant frontal boundary <br>near the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida during the next <br>day or two. Any additional development is expected to be slow to <br>occur as the system moves northwestward across the Florida Peninsula <br>and into the Gulf of America.<br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.<br><br>2. Central Tropical Atlantic:<br>A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the <br>next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with <br>another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow <br>development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves <br>westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.<br>* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.<br>* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.<br><br><br><br>Forecaster Reinhart<br><br><br>

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image

NHC Atlantic Outlook update for Thu, 02 Oct 2025 17:18:43 UTC
Additional Details Here.

Imelda Strikes Bermuda, New Area to Watch for Next Week in the Atlantic About half of Bermuda was without power early Thursday after Imelda struck during the overnight hours

The Cabo Verde portion of the hurricane season may head into overtime next week with a new area to watch. The good news for the U.S. is storms forming this far east in October and November rarely pose any problems. Something to monitor for the islands. ⬇️

Swells and high surf from Imelda are expected to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much of the East Coast of the United States during the next several days.

Impressed to see pressures tumbling into the 960s this morning inside Imelda from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter's first pass through its core. Surprised winds on the back side aren't higher yet but imagine they'll catch up today to the pressure falls and faster forward speed.

How about *only* hurricane pairings in the Atlantic and for the entire period of record (since 1851). What are the closest two hurricanes have ever been recorded? Humberto and Imelda right at the top. The nearest reliable contender was Easy and Fox back in 1951.

BREAKING: Just hours before the fiscal year ended, a federal judge in R.I. has ordered the Trump administration to preserve $233 million in FEMA funds it attempted to abruptly steer away from 8 blue states.

Without that order, the states would've lost the money at midnight.

Hurricanes Imelda and Humberto Lock Arms and Swing Away from the U.S. Hurricane warnings issued for Bermuda as Imelda threatens a direct hit by late tomorrow into early Thursday

Imelda and Humberto are both hurricanes and less than 500 miles apart this morning. No two Atlantic hurricanes have been recorded so close together in the satellite era (since 1966). Imelda is Bermuda bound with a possible sting jet forming as it passes.

I only included systems at tropical storm or hurricane stage. Can easily rerun the code to also include depressions, though.

Imelda and Humberto are churning only about 580 miles from each other tonight. Only 9 other named storms have ever come as close or closer in the Atlantic in the satellite era (since 1966). The last occurrence was Philippe and Rina around this time in 2023.

Version with corrected title:

I also wrote about how unusual it is to have all hurricanes so far reach Category 4 or 5 strength. Through today, that's the first time it's happened in the satellite record. The number of total hurricanes remains low relative to the average, though, which certainly contributes.

Imelda Strengthens Over the Bahamas as U.S. Threat Lessens Bermuda now in the path of Imelda, which could bring hurricane conditions later this week

Imelda is steadily strengthening over the northern Bahamas today, but its forecast cone looks starkly different to start this week than it did to end last. Good news for the U.S., but at the expense of Bermuda, where Imelda looks to head as a hurricane. ⬇️