Non-Correlating Stock Ideas

We're reaching an interesting point on these PE/PC firms. Yes they are down from highs, but longer-term charts show there's plenty of meat on the bone. $KKR is decent rep here, and you can see on its weekly rsi(10) it has reached a point where one would expect a bounce or at least resistance.👀

The important point to take away from the above chart is the opposite. When cap is over equal, there have been very specific variables at play. Namely, extreme behavior from a small group of stocks that dominate the rest of the market. It overwhelms the rule of large numbers, but only temporarily.

I don't have Bloomberg now, but saw a bit that said they claimed S&P 500 Equal-Weighted rarely outperform. This is factually inaccurate. I haven't seen the whole report, so maybe there's some subtly like 21st century etc., but long-term it's equal over cap. Chart from @topdowncharts.bsky.social

Here's the relative P&F chart from '90-'03 that just generated a Buy signal last month. $MID / $SPXEW
So far we have one box up for the Buy signal but that's it. Back in '99 there were two before it launched, not to mention that one during LTCM crisis. I think we have a long way to go, but 👀(3/3)

Note though the relative performance during the last great tech bubble. The interesting thing is Midcaps shot up before the peak in the S&P 500. In fact, the relative performance peaked about the same time as $SPX. Is there a pattern here? $MID / $SPXEW (2/3)

S&P 400 Midcaps $MID have had a great absolute and relative start this year. I have exposure in large part due to their relative and absolute valuation levels, as well as their very long-term historical relationship with large-caps trading similarly but generating a bit more return. (1/3)

While the 30Y $TYX never broke through its Bear trend line and turned back down, the 10Y $TNX did and so far held its Bull line. Interesting cross currents here. The 5Y $FVX though did break back down through its Bull line, so folks looking for higher rate trends might be careful with sizing bets.

This is nice, but a 2 minute course is way too short. It should be measured in hours not minutes. The race should have been to the summit and back.

Brent too, although on its 2% box chart it has already broken through. $BRN

We got the data for short interest right before $RHI reported and it went up sizably. Will be very interested to see how it changes at the next release considering the pop and press back down. Data will be collected at the end of today and reported on 2/25. www.nyse.com/publicdocs/n...

The AI-agnostic trade had propelled once hated groups like Materials $RSPM into popular rotation targets despite no uptick in fundies. Yesterday looked like a trend changer to me as that bar engulfed the previous day, and we're seeing early follow through today > the market. Careful chasing.

How much faith should we have in Materials ability to keep this momentum spike going? $RSPM's weekly rsi(10) in that rarified air. These co's went from, 'it doesn't do AI so I don't care,' to 'It doesn't do AI so I'll buy it at any price fundies be damned!'
Markets. 🤦

Pretty impressed with the whole AI-anti trade. $RHI put up the report that showed the stability they needed to show. Stock pops and holds for awhile. Then last three days just sell it back down and fill that gap. #'s don't matter here. It's all faith and fear of what if.

$SW Pop pop. -Magnitude

Despite $CNI trailing the market, peers, and the tepid guide for '26, the stock has started to move and its broken through its Bear Trend line on 2% box size chart. Given its relative valuation discount, there's more room for gains without a material change to expectations. A deal break would be ++.

$SW 🐂Catapult
2% Box chart. Positive report should see follow through.

Ytd total returns for major indexes show some pretty clear separation. I also pulled R2K apart into its growth value components. $SPY $RSP $SPSM $SPMD $IWO $IWN $QQQ

Maybe the most impressive thing about this action in $IGV this week, is their website says it only has 72.5 mil shares outstanding. So it turned over 2+ times this week alone.
It also bounced right at that 200 week sma.

$FMC put up another terrible Q and guide, but also announced their exploring selling the company. Not interested in the equity, but the debt? If a sale went through it would be hard to imagine its leverage profile getting worse than it is currently.

With all of the recent excitement and volatility, it is understandable to miss that S&P 400 Midcaps are making a new high. One interesting thing to note is they have a higher mix of Staples businesses than their 500 & 600 counterparts.

The thing that's kept me out of $PYPL despite my interest in digital payment systems, has been it's valuation. If it gets to $36, then I think it's inline with $GPN on Ev/Ebitda. It's also trading <7x P/FCF around GPN's GFC low. It's close, but I'm still just 👀.

With so much going on yesterday, I missed that lead-AI $NVDA generated a Sell signal on the 2% box chart. Given that it's been churning in this zone since last August, it probably needs a lower print that breaks the bottom of the range. Maybe a 164, and then its testing the Bull trend line at 142. 👀

My fav indicator for signaling the end of this tech bubble is the $NDX / $SPXEW P&F chart. It turned down yesterday into a column of O's, but it still has a lot of work to do before generating a Sell signal. It's not perfect as you can see, but it has done a very good job of catching these trends.

SK has been a big source of EM outperformance too.

Yes, it was only a few years ago that there was lots of handwringing about Gold doing nothing while Bitcoin was taking the SOV trade. The script has flipped, but it wouldn't stun me to see BTC do relatively well vs PM's over the next two years from here.

We're into rare territory now for $BTC on the 3-day bar chart. Only that November '18 low was worse than this on the rsi(10).
I'm back in now so it might test that.

Bitcoin gets a zero price target in wake of Burry warning (BTC-USD:Cryptocurrency) Bitcoin outlook turns bearish as Pivotus’ Richard Farr targets BTC at $0 and Michael Burry warns of a “death spiral.” Get the risks and key levels now.

Not quite the magazine cover, but I think of similar note. $BTC
seekingalpha.com/news/4547997...

This might be a bad sign for the market, but I admit I just bought a starter position in a software name. Not going to say what because this is a bit of initiate then investigate, but there's enough here to get me interested despite everything. I also have 20+% in cash. Clue: it pays small divy.

"Hello 100, we meet again."
$SPX