James

Macron did the nuclear option, in a similarly unpopular position.

He did have the advantage of his position not being at stake. And an electoral system (with runoffs) where the electorate are asked "do you really want the far right to win?", even if they have a strong plurality.

Is it tribal - We don't want to replace Keir Starmer with someone who would be popular & win the next election?

Or pragmatic - Somebody else *from Labour* is going to work against my interests?

Or dogmatic - Changing PMs is the cause of problems, not the actual people or policies?

Or otherwise?

A consistent, coherent policy agenda is not something that just comes together in a week to a single person, it requires time & thought & commitment & belief & effort & communication, where is that going to come from?

Recycling Chaos with Ed Milliband.?.

Royal correspondents are so bloody useless.

"There's the Queen [no it's not] walking with her eyes straight ahead. Let me just repeat the vt commentary."

The story's a confirmed again, even bigger paedophile finally getting his grace home removed, it's not Ascot or the lovely ladies competition.

Ed Balls

It's a very football supporter statement. I checked league titles, & if you order them by ESPON, they are 7 of the top 8, & Blackburn-Burnley has no city.

Manchester 30
Liverpool 29
London 21
Birmingham 11
Newcastle 10
Leeds 6
Sheffield 5
Blackburn-Burnley 5
-
Nottingham 3

Looks like he didn't have much choice about it.

Can you do a constituency v list table? I'd be interested to see how many are different, & if there's any pattern apart from the few Green & Alba supporters who vote SNP in constituency.

Just 32% of 2024 Scottish Labour voters intend to give their constituency vote to the party in this May's Holyrood election, with 14% switching to Reform UK and 13% to the SNP, while 21% are unsure who they would back

yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

A Klein bottle is a one surfaced structure with no edges, that can't exist in 3D without intersecting itself.

A 3D representation is a common ornament for mathemagicians, it's like a chemist flask, where the neck extends through a surface to join the base.

It's a 3d version of a Möbius strip.

Is this something the British Polling Council should be intervening on? As in, publicly & to media castigate a poll as being below any reasonable standards of public polling, so the wider public understands how distorting it is?

Turns out only 51 responses after don't know & won't vote taken out. That's 14% margin of error, if the concept of taking a meaningfully representative sample were even possible for such a small sample.

Tables are up now. The number of respondents for the headline voting intention, once don't knows and won't votes are removed, is 51.

<Meaningful stare>

Manchester SouthEast & Denton

The Gorton and Denton by-election: a tale of two Manchesters? Unpopular incumbent + fragmented opposition + unusual seat = unpredictable contest

New Swingometer! The Gorton and Denton By-election: A tale of Two Manchesters

open.substack.com/pub/swingome...

One more thing. The main drive to ban social media for under-16s comes from a fear of regulating it properly *for adults*. That's a fear of the tech-bros and their power. Governments are more willing to regulate kids than techbros.

Lord Ashcroft had a poll of 702 for the Runcorn by election last year.

8-9% assuming a representative sample, which is pretty difficult in such a small sample, from such a small area, in an ethnically diverse seat, of lottery players only.

& They didn't poll Workers Party, 10% in 2024, candidate selected.

I don't know if it's before or after Andy Burnham ruled out.

Andy Burnham could win Andrew Gwynne’s seat In Manchester, polling shows Burnham is bigger than Labour

Can you read the small print on RHS? Britain Predicts seems to be a poll aggregator run by the New Statesman, & this seems to be a prediction, not a poll, before Andy Burnham ruled out, *after* presumed tactical votes from Green to Labour.

share.google/MRsLf9iFCHQ8...

The fact that they didn't poll for Workers Party (10% in 2024, putting up a candidate) is another poor showing.

Andy Burnham could win Andrew Gwynne’s seat In Manchester, polling shows Burnham is bigger than Labour

It seems to be from "Britain Predicts", which is run by the New Statesman; I can't find their data source, however, the version shown here is *after* presumed tactical voting from Greens.

share.google/MRsLf9iFCHQ8...

Is this meant to be this seat? What data are they using?

Thanks for clarifying.

It does switch the question a bit into last government, this government, next government, particularly for the 30% without a party in play.

It seems off that the median is apparently around the 70th percentile on party LR scale, there's a lot of info hiding in the unshown.

The swapping of "median" & "average" implies median voter in title refers to a subset sample ie a focus group. What's the sample size?

Why median, not mean? Was it a conscious decision to imply only 3 parties matter? Why voter on average & not average voter currently in parties?

The median voters questioned here... What does that mean? A group of Reform/Tory waiverers?

I'm exhausted with the poorly chosen scoffing at Goodwin for things that aren't justified.

I've lived in Manchester for 24 years, am I *allowed* to call it my home? I wasn't born here, I didn't grow up here. Can I call my childhood village home? What about my Uni town? Only my birthplace?

What are you using it for? If you're directing to your office, you might want to say turn left at the Tesco Express, you'll see a Boots on your right etc. And not care about the rest of the map that's not the route(s). There's potential use cases, that would require AI to understand map accuracy.

Isn't that Starmer's strategy too? She cannot conceive not competing on how-right-wing-can-you-be to prove she's more Tory. She is projected to lose half her seats to Reform, & (like Starmer) can't conceive of a way to win which doesn't chase the same 30% of voters.

It's a huge issue. Threatening 15 years before immigrants have proper rights is driving care workers away, people are choosing Europe instead. People have lost years of their life looking after our infirm. It's a rapidly burning fuse that isn't even acknowledged as a problem by government.

I guess he had a temporary job at a takeaway? I lived in Salford, half the way to Eccles, in 2003 the year he graduated, no car. I took agency catering jobs at Belle Vue race course. It's a couple of short bus rides. I briefly lived in Levenshulme, it's not scary.