@chriswhittall.bsky.social
Associate Editor, derivatives and secondary markets, at IFR. Views all mine.
NEW: Societe Generale gains ground in fixed income trading push
SocGen's drive to expand in fixed income starting to bear fruit: spot FX volumes up 70-80% this year
Part of broader push to diversify its trading division beyond structured equity derivatives
www.ifre.com/people-and-m...
Investors seem to approve
SocGen shares are up ~80% this year, comfortably the best performer of major investment banks
Many analysts are pencilling in further gains following years of lacklustre performance
SocGen is determined to reduce the volatility of its trading revenues through diversification and cutting back risk
Growing fixed income is an important part of that, as is expanding in cash equities and prime brokerage
Here's SocGen's co-head of markets on the strategy:
NEW: Societe Generale gains ground in fixed income trading push
SocGen's drive to expand in fixed income starting to bear fruit: spot FX volumes up 70-80% this year
Part of broader push to diversify its trading division beyond structured equity derivatives
www.ifre.com/people-and-m...
NEW: Bank trading bonanza continues in second quarter
Banks' trading revenues set to rise 10-15% in Q2, Coalition Greenwich says
Equities trading leading the way again - up 20-25%
Fixed income up 5-10% on the back of strong FX trading results
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
NEW: Bank trading bonanza continues in second quarter
Banks' trading revenues set to rise 10-15% in Q2, Coalition Greenwich says
Equities trading leading the way again - up 20-25%
Fixed income up 5-10% on the back of strong FX trading results
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
Ofc, chart looks very different if you adjust for currency
Yellow line is S&P performance this year in euros
S&P 500 nearly now caught up with European stocks year to date
03.07.2025 14:10 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0Worst H1 performance for the dollar index since 1973 - Deutsche Bank
01.07.2025 08:49 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
But this backs up anecdotal evidence that investors are starting to rebalance after years of overallocation to the US
That could be simply currency hedging dollar assets, or putting new money to work elsewhere- potentially having a bit impact on smaller markets ///
Obviously this is just one month of data
It's also a drop in the ocean compared with the $3.5trn of US securities foreigners have bought since the start of 2022
And, after underperforming at the start of the year, US stock markets have rebounded sharply
bsky.app/profile/chri...
Treasuries were the biggest casualty with a net $40.6bn of sales in April from foreigners
Canadian institutions (!) were the biggest sellers - their holdings of Treasuries fell $57.8bn in April to $368.4bn
This followed (much bigger) Treasury inflows in Q1
NEW: 'Sell America' trade emerges in April
Foreign investors sold a net $50.6bn of US stocks and bonds - highest monthly total since the pandemic in early 2020
First concrete sign foreign investors could be reconsidering US exposures after years of heavy investing
www.ifre.com/people-and-m...
Morgan Stanley is shuttering a unit focused on electronic market-making for US equity options, retreating from a corner of the derivatives landscape that’s grown increasingly popular with retail investors, even as trading volumes boom"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
*percentage points
18.06.2025 14:30 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
S&P 500 outperforming Stoxx Europe 600 by ~8 percentage over the last three months
18.06.2025 14:25 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 1
Millennium Management valued at $14bn
www.ft.com/content/7972...
Speaking of $$$, here's a fun story about the steep price tag attached to THE consensus trade in the market right now
Shorting the dollar is expensive b/c of the negative carry (US rates much > Japan, Swiss, eurozone)
"There’s only so long you can hold that trade"
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
NEW: Dollar upheaval sparks FX trading boom
Banks' off to their best start to a year since 2022 w/ >$6.5bn of FX revenues in Q1
Investors hedging dollar exposure a huge driver of flows
"The surge in client activity... was very profitable for banks"
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
Eg shorting the dollar against the yen costs 4% of yield a year, Barclays says
So you need a big move lower in the buck to make it worthwhile
May explain why dollar shorts have reduced somewhat recently
Here's Amundi on the conundrum:
Speaking of $$$, here's a fun story about the steep price tag attached to THE consensus trade in the market right now
Shorting the dollar is expensive b/c of the negative carry (US rates much > Japan, Swiss, eurozone)
"There’s only so long you can hold that trade"
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
BNP Paribas estimates Danish pension funds reduced their unhedged dollar exposure ~$38bn in March/April; Dutch funds reduced theirs $53bn in Q1
Here's Morgan Stanley's FX/EM head on expectations of more to come //
FX trading volumes submitted to CLS are much higher this year and hit records in April after US tariff announcements
Dealers report a step-change in activity post April 2 w/ "real" FX users (pensions, insurance etc) increasing $ hedging ratios for the first time in years
NEW: Dollar upheaval sparks FX trading boom
Banks' off to their best start to a year since 2022 w/ >$6.5bn of FX revenues in Q1
Investors hedging dollar exposure a huge driver of flows
"The surge in client activity... was very profitable for banks"
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
NEW: How Goldman Sachs turned financing into a $9bn powerhouse
Goldman's financing revenues now outstrip investment banking fees after >doubling since 2020
Profile of how the age-old business of lending money is transforming the investment bank 🧵
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
"Nicholas Thompson, chief executive of the Atlantic, said the publication should assume traffic from Google would drop toward zero and the company needed to evolve its business model.
'Google is shifting from being a search engine to an answer engine' "
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/goog...
Also includes links to other pieces that have talked about this concept of the re-tranching of the banking system for some time now
eg these posts from @stevenkelly49.bsky.social and Huw van Steenis last year
www.withoutwarningresearch.com/p/does-priva...
www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertis...
Link to our story and thread on Goldman's financing push
bsky.app/profile/chri...
"There is something culturally interesting about this moment... banks are moving up the capital structure, doing less risky stuff and more lending of money to the people doing the risky stuff. The post-crisis push to make banks more boring is essentially working."
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
