Josh Huder

Fascinating analysis of congressional elections. The conventional wisdom predicts fewer seat swings in 2026 due to nationalization and polarization. This study demonstrates large seat swings remain possible even in times of calcified partisan elections. centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...

The Struggles of Speaker Johnson Mike Johnson's narrow majority isn't his only problem.

Mike Johnson's historically narrow majority isn't the only, or even the biggest, problem he's faced as Speaker. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...

Nobody Knows the Trouble Mike’s Seen - The Government Affairs Institute Mike Johnson has had a rough time leading the House of Representatives. Under his speakership, Republicans set the record for the number of failed special rules (votes speakers use to bring bills to t...

NEW: Senior Fellow @joshhuder.bsky.social writes about the challenges to Mike Johnson's speakership: logistical, political, personal and structural gai.georgetown.edu/nobody-knows...

This is patently absurd but if it were true, he's suggesting AI is a critical and possibly unrecoverable blow to the U.S. economy, deficit, debt, and more... which isn't a great argument.

There are reasons for the partisan requirements (i.e. Mike Johnson's interest in remaining speaker). But that is also a problem rules changes could address.

The House Passed All 12 Spending Bills Asserting Their Control “If we wouldn’t have been able to do this, then Congress would have been, frankly, diminished in a way that would have been bad for our republic,” a senior Republican appropriator said.

Partisan floor demands have derailed several committees' work this Congress. There's a decent argument to be made that with less stringent partisan requirements/demands for floor consideration, the institution wouldn't be as bottled up. www.notus.org/congress/hou...

Episode 13: A House Divided, with Joshua Huder from Georgetown's GAI A narrow majority, internal party conflicts, and larger structural challenges have made it difficult for Speaker Mike Johnson to control the U.S. House of Representatives

On the latest DDHQ podcast, we explored the chaotic U.S. House of Representatives.

Guest Joshua Huder highlighted how internal conflicts within both parties have made it harder to manage the House — currently Speaker Mike Johnson's problem.

Watch here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/house-of-r...

Agree. Still a tough pill to swallow given [gestures wildly].

Pelosi, Hoyer, Nadler, Schakowsky, Velazquez, Davis, Doggett.

More interesting story is the retirements of several long-serving Democrats this year. We’re seeing a generational turnover among House Democrats who were once the backbone of the party.

Congress is old but that is far more interesting to legislative politics than 2-3% who might return.

Whether they believe the language won’t prevent impoundments, or it’s not worth a shutdown fight again, or futile without a House or Senate majority, it’s clear they’ve backed away from many of their original demands.

This process looks more like Trump 1.0 when Congress ignored steep cuts proposed by the admin. However, Democrats appear to have capitulated more this time, allowing sizable cuts and jettisoning language restricting impoundments or RIFs.

Congress Is Reversing Trump’s Steep Budget Cuts to Science

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/10/s...

And as a result, we've lost some ability to forge the strange coalitions that historically protected American democracy when it came under threat.

Tolerance is arguably the most fundamental liberal principle and it is too often missing in today's political dialogue.

Today is not the first time fascist and illiberal political movements threatened American politics. But it does seem like this generation of politicians and actors have lost some capacity for tolerance, even when opposing ideologies are broadly pro-democratic.

The Future of Democracy Depends on the Republican Party The Battle for a Liberal Society is Happening Within the Political Right

This piece nicely reiterates the imperatives of inclusion for democracy to endure. Though, I admit, I'm saddened tolerance has fallen so far from mainstream (lowercase-l) liberalism that pieces like this are necessary.
ryandenos.substack.com/p/the-future...

Anarchy Is What Donald Trump Makes Of It There's anarchy and then there's ANARCHY.

This ties in nicely with @dandrezner.bsky.social piece this morning. His acts may have historical parallels but Trump's acts are on a different scale with different intended effects.

Both important reads. danieldrezner.substack.com/p/anarchy-is...

Trump Beats Iran-Contra A break from his usual worse-than-Watergate presidency.

Important @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social piece. Sometimes it feels like Trump's actions are just extensions of previous presidential acts. But Jonathan makes an important point that Trump's acts are often far worse. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/worse-than...

My thoughts on the state of House GOP leadership, with data on discharge petitions and links to good stuff from @mattglassman312.bsky.social @joshhuder.bsky.social @sarahbinder.bsky.social & others.

My take on why Mike Johnson's speakership is one of the most fraught in recent and not so recent memory. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...

What would a third Trump impeachment look like? Some lessons from history

Julia Azari: the impeachments of Trump and Johnson, and the near-impeachment of Nixon “have a number of strong and striking parallels. The factor I focus on is race: how each of these presidents follow one who breaks with the confines of the racial status quo.” open.substack.com/pub/donmoyni...

The NDAA carries language restricting the Hegseth's travel budget until DoD provides reports and documents on a variety of issues.

As @jamiedupree.bsky.social notes, this language isn't that uncommon, particularly when committees lose patience with agencies. But it often flies under the radar.

Will Hegseth Face Consequences? He already has…though not enough

wrote about the boat strikes, and people’s skepticism that Hegseth will face consequences.

the thing is…the bipartisan congressional pushback is already a consequence. it damages hegseth personally and politically and may restrain policy.

www.everythingishorrible.net/p/will-hegse...

Blocking the transmission of legislation is among the worst abuses of power by any Speaker in House history. It's become very common under Johnson.

Good point. We see that on Dems side. There's a generational change going on there. But Republican conference is 1) much less experienced/younger, and 2) particularly dysfunctional. A House career is a dead end on the R side.

1st: This would be among the most dramatic events in US history.
2nd: I'm very skeptical resignations force a transfer of power.
3rd: If discontent is this widespread why has House done almost nothing to push back?
4th: Johnson... no bueno.

Likely hyperbole but not a good look regardless.

If Johnson eliminated or functionally neutered the discharge process, a determined majority would find other ways to bring legislation to the floor.

Trying to rig the game against the majority will only result in more embarrassing losses.

Mike Johnson announces, as emperor, that he has no clothes.

It's not often the emperor makes this confession, but it is 2025 so anything goes.
www.axios.com/2025/11/21/m...

His slip in "control" now is built, in part, on his lack of control earlier in his term.

That more recent slip due to his low approval and changed perceptions after the 2025 Elections.

However, those results also stem from his systemic failure to persuade others and build a popular agenda.