Isaac Hale

A horizontal bar chart titled “Generational Turnout: From 2020 to 2024 Rates” shows turnout rate changes among registered voters by generation and party affiliation. The chart includes four generational groups—Gen Z, Millennial, Gen X, and Boomer—and tracks changes from 2020 (dot) to 2024 (arrow tip), with Democratic turnout in blue and Republican turnout in red. Key trends: • Gen Z: Democratic turnout dropped by 13.7 percentage points (pp); Republican turnout dropped by 7.9pp. • Millennials: Democratic turnout fell by 5.6pp; Republican turnout fell by 0.3pp. • Gen X: Democratic turnout dropped 4.2pp; Republican turnout dropped 0.8pp. • Boomers: Democratic turnout declined 3.2pp; Republican turnout declined 1.4pp. A note below the chart explains that all groups saw turnout declines, but Democratic voters dropped off more steeply. A boxed summary highlights the consistent pattern: Republicans started from higher turnout and maintained more of their base, while Democrats experienced longer arrows (larger drop-offs) across all generations.

Underappreciated 2024 trend: Relative dropoff in Dem vs Rep turnout among younger reg. voters. Easy to mistake this as a swing right but it’s turnout.

If young Dems matched Rep turnout rates, they’d have netted 2.5-3.5M votes—might not have flipped election but likely would’ve swung popular vote.

29.06.2025 21:37 — 👍 269    🔁 95    💬 11    📌 20

This fascinating new study shows that flu vaccine hesitancy has spiked among Republicans since COVID. Plus, it’s got really impressive panel data going back to 2015!

30.05.2025 17:18 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Terrific to see this new research note out w/ @djsimmons.bsky.social @isaachale.bsky.social in @repjournal.bsky.social

05.05.2025 21:00 — 👍 10    🔁 4    💬 3    📌 0

Thank you!

07.05.2025 05:54 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Thanks!

07.05.2025 05:53 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Thank you!

07.05.2025 05:53 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

The Downballot's calculations of presidential election results by congressional district, sponsored by Grassroots Analytics Our one-of-a-kind collection spans from 2008 to the present

It's here! The Downballot is so stoked to share our calculations of the results of the 2024 presidential election for all 435 congressional districts!

Bookmark this must-have data set, generously sponsored by Grassroots Analytics, right here: the-db.co/presbycd

And much more in this 🧵 below!

24.04.2025 16:36 — 👍 441    🔁 160    💬 23    📌 31

Trapped in a Two-Party System Under proportional representation, minority-preferred candidates tend to win even more seats than under single-member districts.

NEW PAPER: Trapped in a Two-Party System by Professor Steven Taylor looks at how our country's two party system is truly exceptional — and not in a good way. No other major democracy has such complete dominance by only two parties.

22.03.2025 01:00 — 👍 68    🔁 19    💬 8    📌 1

Even as small donors flooded in, campaign finance inequality hit record highs in 2024. For the first time, the top 0.01% (1 in 10K voters) share exceeds 50% of $s. The top 400 donors now exceed 25%.

Citizens United opened the door, but soaring wealth inequality is what's driving these extremes.

14.11.2024 22:54 — 👍 250    🔁 125    💬 7    📌 13