Mike Gehrke

The difference between leaving the Democratic Party and leaving MAGA is leaving the Ds won't get you indicted.

Love the thinking here Net 7 seats per point on the generic is a good rule of thumb, but it breaks down because of candidate quality and investment. 80 seat pickup takes almost 30 point swing and means we win nearly the entire GA house delegation. Probably more +30, and would be biggest since 06.

If they don't, somebody else will.

Bluesky, give me an example of karma

Would really like to see some takes on the effect of primaries in the 2025 elections.

They don't seem to have been a negative at all and may have helped a bit by engaging Dem voters early.

I'm 99.9% sure this feud ends someday ... but it won't be today.

I wonder how many staff are pitching other really awful ideas to Trump and insisting they are vital "because the World Cup."

www.cnn.com/2025/11/17/s...

Burra couldn't stand that Fuentes was getting all the attention.

Trading hard to convict financial crimes for human trafficking would not be a bad prosecutor choice.

There you go bringing facts into my rank speculation.

Would be wild if the outcome of the Epstein files is to find out Trump flipped on Epstein but did it to avoid something much worse.

Huh...

This is the second-worst take on legalized corruption next to "what a great way to encourage the next generation to go into government!"

"Relax, the country survived the corruption and graft that was just as bad in the 1880s" isn't actually reassuring to those of us who don't want to go back there, or to the folks over the next century who tried to male it illegal to do all those things again.

YouTube video by Farm Aid Todd Snider - Conservative Christian, Right Wing, Republican, Straight, White, American Male

"I don't share my opinions because they are smart or because I think people need to know them, I'm going to share them because they rhyme....

youtu.be/F5hlil50vi4?...

Sad news. An hour with Todd Snider's music was the best hang around.

Near Truths and Hotel Rooms never failed to cheer me up.

Sorry to see he's taken the last b-double e-double r-u-n.

Married. A. Stripper.

Just seems there aren't as many dysfunctional alcoholics in Congress as there used to be.

Domestic violence charge rocks Sweeney race The 20th congressional district race was rocked yesterday when two newspapers published reports of a domestic incident in December involving Republican incumbent John Sweeney and his wife Gaia, who go...

John Sweeney?

www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/8...

Same folks running political betting markets too.

What could possibly go wrong?

I heard it maybe twice in 2006.

Although it was basically what Trump does on a slow Thursday.

I'll take the over... add Hayworth, Weldon, Pombo, and maybe Ryun. Senate side definitely added Tester, arguably Webb and McCaskill.

+31 House seats and +5 senate ... there was a lot going on. Both the house and senate majority leaders quit. One of them went to jail.

Just a wild, wild year.

Its something when the least memorable scandal of the cycle was the Congressman who choked his mistress and it all ended up on a 911 call.

YouTube video by Jonathan Singer Don Sherwood Ad "Count on Me"

But the important thing here is I got to post about Don Sherwood. And the worst TV ad ever made.

youtu.be/8D303Zo3nlk?...

It was a nice tailwind, but the 06 strategy was to go all out on every scandal every day. If the hall monitors we have today would have showed up then and told us to talk about 6 in 06, they would have been chased out of the room.

Foley didn't move numbers because there wasn't much left to move

Nobody remembers 6 for 06. Nancy Pelosi forgot 6 for 06 before the press conference was over.

It was a remarkably awful run for Rs. 47M uninsured, war in a stalemate, Katrina. Scandals... Yes, Foley, but Abramoff, Cunningham, DeLay, Weldon, Bob Ney... I can keep going. Google Don Sherwood!

It's true, no matter how much ibuprofen I take, JD Vance is still so stupid it hurts.

The D.N.C. Ordered Workers Back to the Office. Its Union Isn’t Pleased.

I've seen surprisingly little discussion about this on here, even in my DNC alumni and OG staffer circles.

I guess I just assumed HQ staff were back a long time ago.

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/u...

I saw what you did there.

"..." doing all the work in this analysis.