#CBJ Amateur Stats Guy

#CBJ ’s Kirill Marchenko is currently tied for 17th-best point producer in the league, with 53 points (in 50 games).
He’s also the 6th-best RW.
At 24 years old, this is his 3rd season in the league.
I feel like this is not talked about enough.
We’re witnessing a STAR being born.

With 20 mins to go in this one, I guess this means we add LDBB to this season’s point-per-game #CBJ players’ list.
-LDBB 1g 1a 2pts in 1GP
-Werenski 13g 35a 48pts in 42GP
-Marchenko 17g 28a 45pts in 42GP
-Monahan 14g 27a 41pts in 41GP

Close:
-Voronkov 29 in 33
-KJ 24 in 28

The points production by #CBJ this season so far is really coming from 5 players.
Marchenko, Werenski, Monahan, Voronkov and Kent Johnson all average between 1.11 (Marchenko) and 0.83 (Voronkov) points per game.
Nearest pursuant is Chinakhov @ 0.67, then Sillinger @ 0.54.

Before the season started, I don’t think I would’ve bet that Adam Fantilli and Mathieu Olivier would both have the same points total (15) after 38 games played.

Mathieu is having his most offensively productive season in career. In fact, his previous best was also 15, in 66 GP.

While #CBJ’s Voronkov and Marchenko are red-hot in the last 8 games (since December 15), with 12 and 14 points respectively, it’s been more difficult for Kent Johnson.

KJ has 1 goal and 2 assists for 3 points and a cumulative -7, in the last 8 games.

Still 21 pts in 24 GP.

Since December 15th, in 8 games, #CBJ’s Dmitry Voronkov has posted 6 goals and 6 assists, so 12 points in 8 games.

He’s now at 24 points in 29 games this season, getting closer to point-per-game territory.

This also means half his season production so far has been last 8 games.

While they were there, Elvis got on a Zoom call with the players to congratulate them.

Hartley was the coach of Latvia’s senior program for 5 years and still has strong ties with a lot of them, including Artis Abols (current HC of the team at the WJC), who was AC to Hartley.

Bob Hartley on RDS (TSN’s french sister station) reveals that #CBJ’s Elvis Merzlikins got in touch with Latvia’s hockey program management to let them know he invited every player & member of staff to a steakhouse in Ottawa, his treat, following Latvia’s victory over Canada #WJC

For further reference, if we only consider goalies who played at least 10 games this season, the leader is Connor Hellebuyck @ 0.928 SV% & 2.06 GAA.

He leads both categories.

For reference, the leaders of these 2 categories right now in the NHL is a 3-way tie between NYI’s Marcus Hogberg, VGK’s Akira Schmid and MTL’s Jakub Dobes.
0 GAA & 1.000 (shutout) in 1 game both for Schmid and Dobes, 2 games for Hogberg.

Of note:

56th in SV% and tied with both Elvis and Jet is Jeremy Swayman. He has a slightly better GAA however at 2.93, good for 47th in the league.

Former #CBJ Joonas Korpisalo is 34th in the league @ 2.71 GAA & 50th @ 0.895 SV%.

Who would’ve thought Korpi would lead these 5?

The other 2 that had a positive differential on Friday (Werenski and Provorov, both +1) were minuses Saturday (both -1).

Fun fact:

Jake Christiansen was the Dman with the least ice time in both games against Boston (9:12 Friday and 11:12 Saturday) out of the 7 Dmen that were playing.

He’s also the only CBJ Dman to have a positive differential in those 2 games combined (+1, 0, respectively).

#CBJ’s goalies stats this season so far (no minimum GP):

Elvis: 23 games, 3.09 GAA & 0.890 SV%;
Greaves: 4 games, 3.48 GAA & 0.890 SV%;
Tarasov: 10 games, 4.23 GAA & 0.857 SV%.

GAA: Elvis 60th in the league, Jet 69th (noice), Daniil 85th;
SV%: Elvis 57th, Jet 58th, Daniil 78th.

Jenner - Monahan - Marchenko
Chinakhov - Fantilli - Johnson
Dumais - Sillinger - Voronkov
Malatesta - ? - Olivier
? - ?

Werenski - Fabbro
Mateychuk - Severson
? - Gudbranson
Harris

Merzlikins
Greaves

This would realistically leave at least 27- 30M on the cap to add 5 players.

I’d assume Waddell’s priority looking into next season would be to re-sign Fabbro & Olivier in the UFAs (up to them); the rest are quite replaceable.
In the RFAs, Voronkov and maybe Harris should be re-signed, not sure for Tarasov and Pyyhtia.

Doing this would look like this:

The 4 RFAs: Voronkov, Pyyhtia, Harris & Tarasov.
Some forwards will probably come from Cleveland / Junior, 1 or more of players such as Brindley, Dumais, Lindstrom, Del Bel Belluz, Malatesta, McCue, etc, which are less than 1M per on their ELC.
Some UFAs might stick around too.

This leaves 44.655M for Waddell to work with this summer and complete the following lineup:

Jenner - Monahan - Marchenko
Chinakhov - Fantilli - Johnson
? - Sillinger - ?
? - ? - ?
? - ?

Werenski - ?
Mateychuk - Severson
? - Gudbranson
?

Merzlikins
?

11 to add. Only 4 RFAs.

#CBJ fans, remember that there is merely 47.745M (46.32M on 7 forwards, 4 Dmen and 1 goalie + 1.425M for the Boqvist & Wennberg buyouts) engaged on the salary cap for next season, before any trade and/or signature.

Per NHL.com, cap is projected @ 92.4M minimally.

Before throwing rocks at me, consider that IF Aaron Ekblad walks this summer, it would be because of salary (cap issues in Florida).
The team with the least cap engagements this summer is by far #CBJ, so it may be less far-fetched than one might initially presume.

10/9 bonus:

If, by some witchcraftery, Waddell could sign UFA Ekblad next summer, Severson would, to me, become the odd man out, and the pairings would be amazingly balanced.

Werenski - Ekblad
Mateychuk - Fabbro
? - Gudbranson
Harris

I’d even be fine w/ Jake or Jordan as the 5th D.

The key here is knowing if Gudbranson can consistently play 2nd pair minutes when he gets healthy.

If he can, to me, this might be the best option for Waddell to finally solve the D’s inconsistency of the last few seasons.

Pairing strenghts to stabilize.

9/9

However, the easiest fix might be to move Gudbranson on the 2nd pair with Mateychuk (great fit, to me) and sign a rugged left-handed shutdown D to complement Severson on the 3rd pair.

Z - Fabbro
Mateychuk - Gudbranson
? - Severson
Harris

There is a way to make this work.

8/?

Looking into next season, before any trades or signings other than what « seems obvious » (but not certain), we’re probably looking at:
Z - Fabbro
Mateychuk - Severson
? - Gudbranson
Harris

I really don’t think that 2nd pair has what it takes to properly develop Mateychuk.

7/?

This doesn’t look quite as bad as I anticipated (although it lingers until 36-37, 12 years from now).
With the rising cap in the next few years, it might be interesting to instead retain salary until 30-31 and trade Damon.
At 50% retained, A team could perhaps use him (3.125M per)

6/?

This leaves Waddell with 2 options if he wants to stabilize the pairings: trading Damon or buying him out.
Both options are interesting, as #CBJ  has a lot of cap space AND all 3 of their salary retention spots open.

Here’s what a buyout would look like according to capwages

5/?

Now, unless Waddell plans on trading for / signing a left-handed shutdown D-man better than Harris, Christiansen and Jack Johnson, I don’t see how he fits on a pair with the current squad, and even after Provorov is (most likely) traded at the deadline.

4/?

The biggest problem for Severson is, he’d need a stay-at-home shutdown left-handed D-man to complement him, which #CBJ  hasn’t had since trading Gavrikov (who wouldn’t sign with #CBJ  anyway).
The most stable he’s looked in the past 2 seasons is on a pair with Christiansen.

3/?

Damon is 30 years old, signed for another 6 years after this season.
What you see is what you get, he’s in his prime, being a d-man.
His skillset is a mobile right-handed puck-moving D-man, which #CBJ  has had too many of in the past few seasons.
He’s succeptible to turnovers.
2/?

#CBJ  let’s talk about Damon Severson (a 🧵).
First, let’s consider that Waddell said what he’s looking for most in a player is the will to play in Columbus.
Damon signed an 8 year deal in #CBJ  right after being traded from NJD. Money talks, but he likely wants to be here.

1/?