Sam Huckstep

There's a moral hazard risk here. If households in high-risk areas expect ongoing (potentially costly) support to be able to stay, this could create issues.

In the Pakistan case studied this risk may be outweighed by the benefits; elsewhere there will be trade-offs to consider very carefully.

In short: households that *weren't* hit by floods but (mistakenly) received cash used cash to pay for out-migration.

But for flood-hit households, cash doesn't have much effect on migration choices: probably because while some use the liquidity to leave, others invest it to stay put.

This new study looks at the impact of cash transfers to villages hit by the 2010 Pakistan floods.

It neatly exploits that '38% of villages that received relief were not more than 50% flooded (inclusion error), while 34% of villages that were more than 50% flooded were excluded (exclusion error).'

A really interesting article. What happens to people's adaptation choices and long-term migration plans when they are a) hit by floods but b) supported (or not!) by cash transfers designed to help adaptation?

This is happening today!

This will be a great cutting-edge discussion on a tricky policy area.

I'm really looking forward to it. Do join us!

Can the government boost domestic training by restricting migration?

In a new briefing, @msumption.bsky.social and I find that migrants on work visas are a small part of a much wider picture. Here's what you need to know, in three posts.

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

In a new @cgdev.org note @helen-dempster.bsky.social and I, with colleagues at Talent Beyond Boundaries, set out the key design questions and options.

We also -excitingly- include a new interactive modelling calculator, allowing you to set visa design parameters to see how costs are spread.

From Pilot to Pathway: Designing the UK’s Displaced Talent Visa In 2025, the United Kingdom announced that it would create a new capped visa to help refugees and displaced populations access economic opportunities in the UK. This is an excellent step forward, and ...

The UK has announced that it is creating a new Displaced Talent visa: a visa explicitly and deliberately designed to give refugees access to labour migration as a complementary form of protection.

This is a great step forward. But how should it be designed?

Can cities in developing countries create enough good jobs for climate migrants? @gulyssea.bsky.social and @clementimbert.bsky.social show that, over a decade, drought-induced immigration decreases informality and increases the number of formal firms and jobs in Brazil. buff.ly/d3h4E6p

How Much CO₂ Can One Clean Energy Worker Cut? Workforce gaps are a key bottleneck when it comes to reducing carbon emissions in almost every country. Even where capital, technology, and political will are available, shortages of skilled workers a...

Shortages of skilled workers are slowing delivery of decarbonisation plans, delaying installations, and deterring investment. So how much difference would one more worker *really* make?

@samhuckstep.bsky.social and Johann Harnoss give us a number:
https://go.cgdev.org/45fjzMo

Skilled refugees contributing £1m to UK economy each year The UK government is encouraging businesses to use the Displaced Talent Mobility pilot to help at-risk people from around the world to help fill skills gaps.

Revisited a glowing press release on the UK's Displaced Talent Mobility pilot. It's a bit of a time capsule:

Minister for Immigration, *Robert Jenrick*, said:

"[The] pilot is a safe and legal route that ensures refugees can rebuild their lives in the UK...

I encourage more companies to take part"

‘We’ve lost everything’: anger and despair in Sicilian town collapsing after landslide People in Niscemi struggle to comprehend loss of homes and businesses and feel disaster could have been avoided

Not planned relocation, but similar:

'Rapid urbanisation in a country with weak planning... a disaster, now made irreversible by the accelerating climate emergency.

'“These are not reassuring rains but violent downpours, dumping a year’s worth of water in a few hours and triggering landslides."'

Every Worker Counts: Why Climate Targets Can’t Be Met Without Skilled Workers Skilled workers are needed to complete tasks, like installing solar panels or heat pumps, that must be completed to cut carbon emissions. But there aren’t enough of these workers. New CGD modelling su...

Join us for what will be a fascinating webinar!

'Every Worker Counts: Why Climate Targets Can’t Be Met Without Skilled Workers'

18th Feb, 2pm GMT

Showcasing new analysis of the quantified carbon/heating importance of workers, and cutting-edge policy insights.

South Wales council to buy and demolish homes prone to flooding Residents of 16 houses on Clydach Terrace in Ynysybwl express relief after repeated floods caused by climate crisis

The Guardian again with a local piece: 'South Wales council to buy and demolish homes prone to flooding'

'A row of homes in a village in south Wales is to be bought by a local authority and demolished as they can no longer be protected from flooding caused by the climate crisis.'

‘Homes may have to be abandoned’: how climate crisis has reshaped Britain’s flood risk As rivers swell and homes are cut off, scientists say UK winter rainfall is already 20 years ahead of predictions

The Guardian: '‘Homes may have to be abandoned’: how climate crisis has reshaped Britain’s flood risk'

Global warming is coming for your home Who will pay for the damage?

Quite a few media articles about the impact of climate change on house prices, and the implications for adaptation via managed retreat / planned relocation, lately.

The Economist: 'Global warming is coming for your home. Who will pay for the damage?'

'Declines are larger in high-bank-penetration regions than in low-bank-penetration regions, and stronger in urban than rural areas, consistent with the hypothesis that users with better outside options are more able to avoid the tax...

the tax burden shifts towards those with fewer alternatives.'

'Our analysis suggests that mobile money taxes are inefficient, regressive, and encourage shifts back towards cash (informality)...

a 10% increase in the tax-inclusive consumer price is associated with about a 21% decline in the average monthly transaction value per user for taxed transactions.'

Really interesting article relevant to remittance-watchers.

'Some observers may hope mobile money taxes help capture rents in the telecom sector. But when taxes are passed through to users, the design does not primarily tax rents – it ends up taxing everyday transactions.'

I've wanted to make this graph for years, and we finally did it. Here's where all the government's money came from and went to for the last 30 years. Immigrants aren't the cause of the problem. cato.org/white-paper/...

Today @cato.org published our report providing the first look at the fiscal effects of the wave of legal & illegal immigration over the last 3 decades. It shows immigrants created surpluses every year, by a combined $14.5 trillion, even as deficits grew www.cato.org/white-paper/...

As always, George Saunders' short story 'Love Letter' rises to my mind.

Why the UK Should Establish Green-Skilled Mobility Partnerships with Bangladesh, India, and Kenya In a recent paper, we at CGD outlined the extent to which skilled immigrants already contribute to the UK’s green-skilled workforce. This note, written with colleagues from the International Organizat...

The UK lacks the 'green' workers it needs. It will need to recruit internationally. But in doing so, it should consider country of origin labour constraints: it shouldn't cause decarbonisation skill gaps.

In a new piece, we explore three partnership options for the UK: Bangladesh, India, and Kenya.

New evidence from Chile finds that in-situ slum upgrading delivers larger gains in local economic development, both within treated slums and in surrounding neighbourhoods, at a lower cost than policies that relocate slum populations elsewhere.

Read today's article to learn more:

The Great Aid Recession: 2025’s Humanitarian Crash in Nine Charts | Council on Foreign Relations The world faces unresolved conflicts, growing climate crises, attacks on aid workers, two famines, and diminishing political will—along with significant aid cuts. Altogether, 2025 has e...

And here's the blog

Yikes. A pretty dismal chart from a good (but depressing) new CfR blog.

Green skills migration to cut CO2 in Europe, but defence sector vies for workers – think tank Recruiting foreign workers with green skills is a valuable policy tool for European countries which struggle to meet their decarbonisation goals, but the same skills may be needed in other sectors, said the Center for Global Development (CGD). In a paper, the researchers aimed to put a number on the decarbonisation benefits of additional workers with green skills, focussing on Italy, Germany, and the United Kingdom. These countries face a green skills shortage and rely to varying degrees on immigration to meet climate targets.

Green skills migration to cut CO2 in Europe, but defence sector vies for workers – think tank

Recruiting foreign workers with green skills is valuable tool for European countries struggling to meet decarbonisation goals, but same skills are needed elsewhere - CGD

How Much CO₂ Can One Clean Energy Worker Cut? Workforce gaps are a key bottleneck when it comes to reducing carbon emissions in almost every country. Even where capital, technology, and political will are available, shortages of skilled workers a...

Any questions very welcome! And there's also a blog for the short version.

What does this mean for labour migration policy?

We have a set of conclusions and proposed models.

But in short, our findings indicate that migration policy can't be ignored as a tool. If the domestic workforce supply can't scale up fast enough, it would be quite wrong not to supplement it.

I hear you ask: what about the emissions of migration? (This was in fact the Home Office's claim when cutting UK access to vocationally skilled migrants: fewer of them = fewer flights --> better CO2 outcomes).

The answer: pretty much a non-factor, given the scale of abatement from work activities!