Thomas J Thompson

Jobless Claims Drop as Layoffs Stay Low The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims declined by 23,000 to 206,000 for the week ending February 14, the largest weekly drop since…... Jobless Claims Drop as Layoffs Stay Low The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims declined by 23,000 to 206,000 for the week ending February 14, the largest weekly drop since ...

Jobless claims fell to 206K the biggest drop since November, while continuing claims rose to 1.87M and hit the highest level since early January. My take: layoffs remain contained but slower reemployment suggests momentum is steady rather than accelerating. #econsky

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Core Business Investment Beats Forecast The U.S. Census Bureau reported that total durable goods orders fell 1.4 percent in December, a smaller decline than the expected 1.8 percent drop and a… | Th... Core Business Investment Beats Forecast The U.S. Census Bureau reported that total durable goods orders fell 1.4 percent in December, a smaller decline than the expected 1.8 percent drop and a pullb...

Durable goods orders fell 1.4% in December, less than expected, while core orders rose 0.9% and core capital goods increased 0.6%. My take is business investment is holding up, but focused on productivity, not hiring. #econsky

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General Mills Cuts Outlook as Weak Sentiment Hits Staple Spending General Mills lowered its fiscal 2026 sales outlook, pointing directly to weak consumer sentiment, rising uncertainty, and stress… | ... General Mills Cuts Outlook as Weak Sentiment Hits Staple Spending General Mills lowered its fiscal 2026 sales outlook, pointing directly to weak consumer sentiment, rising uncertainty, and stress amo...

General Mills cut its outlook, citing weak consumer sentiment and pressure on everyday categories. My take is this shows households are still buying, but at stricter price thresholds and with tighter budgets. #econsky

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SpaceX to Compete in Pentagon Contest for Autonomous Drone Tech | Thomas J Thompson SpaceX to Compete in Pentagon Contest for Autonomous Drone Swarms The Pentagon has launched a new competition to develop voice-controlled, autonomous drone swarm technology, with a small group of com...

Pentagon launches contest for voice-controlled autonomous drone swarms, with SpaceX and major AI firms competing on the coordination software. My take is this reflects a shift from a few expensive platforms to many lower-cost, software-driven systems. #econsky

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US Inflation Slows as Falling Energy Prices Help Cool Headline CPI The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 2.4 percent over the past year in January, slightly below… | Thoma... US Inflation Slows as Falling Energy Prices Help Cool Headline CPI The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 2.4 percent over the past year in January, slightly below expectat...

US CPI rose 2.4% YoY below the 2.5% forecast, while core inflation held at 2.5%. Energy prices fell and shelter increases were more moderate. My take is inflation is cooling without collapsing, leaving a consumer that is still spending but more selective. #econsky

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US Jobless Claims Settle Back but More Workers Remain on Benefits The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims came in at 227,000 for the latest week, down from last week’s… | Th... US Jobless Claims Settle Back but More Workers Remain on Benefits The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims came in at 227,000 for the latest week, down from last week’s revis...

Jobless claims came in at 227K, down from last week’s spike, but continuing claims rose to 1.86M as more workers stayed on benefits. My take is layoffs are contained, but hiring momentum still looks soft after the big downward job revisions. #econsky

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Jobs Surge in January, but Massive Revisions Reveal a Much Weaker 2025 The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January Employment Situation report this morning, and the headline numbers… | T... Jobs Surge in January, but Massive Revisions Reveal a Much Weaker 2025 The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January Employment Situation report this morning, and the headline numbers came...

U.S. payrolls rose 130k in January, beating expectations, and unemployment dipped to 4.3%. But benchmark revisions show 2025 job growth was far weaker than reported. My take is the labor market isn’t suddenly weakening, it’s been cooling for months. #econsky

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U.S. Holiday Retail Sales Miss Expectations as December Spending Stalls The U.S. Census Bureau released its Advance Monthly Retail and Food Services report this morning, showing that retail sales… | ... U.S. Holiday Retail Sales Miss Expectations as December Spending Stalls The U.S. Census Bureau released its Advance Monthly Retail and Food Services report this morning, showing that retail sales wer...

U.S. retail sales were flat in December, missing expectations across headline and core measures after a strong November. My take is the consumer isn’t collapsing, but becoming more selective as spending momentum cools. #econsky

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Super Bowl Consumer Spending Crossed 20 Billion Dollars I went to a Super Bowl party last night, and the table was covered in wings, chips, dips, pizza, and drinks. There were a few friendly bets… | ... Super Bowl Consumer Spending Crossed 20 Billion Dollars I went to a Super Bowl party last night, and the table was covered in wings, chips, dips, pizza, and drinks. There were a few friendly bets bei...

Super Bowl consumer spending topped 20 billion dollars this year. My take is this reflects a selective consumer still willing to spend, but mostly on shared experiences rather than broad discretionary splurges. #econsky

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Americans relied heavily on credit cards to close out 2025 The Federal Reserve Board released its December consumer credit report this afternoon, providing a final look at how U.S. households… | Thom... Americans relied heavily on credit cards to close out 2025 The Federal Reserve Board released its December consumer credit report this afternoon, providing a final look at how U.S. households finance...

Consumer credit surged in December, driven mostly by credit card borrowing. My take is this looks like holiday financing rather than a structural shift, but early 2026 will tell us if consumers are leaning more on debt. #econsky

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Consumer Sentiment Rises to Six Month High as Inflation Expectations Fall Preliminary February data showed consumer sentiment beating expectations and climbing to its highest level in six months… | T... Consumer Sentiment Rises to Six Month High as Inflation Expectations Fall Preliminary February data showed consumer sentiment beating expectations and climbing to its highest level in six months, hel...

Consumer sentiment rose to a six month high in the preliminary February reading, while one year inflation expectations dropped to a thirteen month low. My take is the consumer is still cautious, but the easing in price anxiety may help confidence stabilize. #econsky

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Weekly Jobless Claims Jump Above Expectations The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims rose to 231,000 for the week ending January 31, an increase of 22,000 from the prior… |... Weekly Jobless Claims Jump Above Expectations The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims rose to 231,000 for the week ending January 31, an increase of 22,000 from the prior we...

Claims jumped to 231K, well above expectations, a day after weak ADP hiring and alongside the biggest January layoff announcements since 2009. My take is the labor market isn’t breaking, but momentum is clearly fading. #econsky

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ADP Shows Jobs Rose in January, but Hiring Slowed Sharply With December JOLTS still unavailable and January BLS data delayed, today’s ADP report offers the clearest current view of labor market… | Th... ADP Shows Jobs Rose in January, but Hiring Slowed Sharply With December JOLTS still unavailable and January BLS data delayed, today’s ADP report offers the clearest current view of labor market condi...

ADP showed jobs rose in January, but much less than expected. My take is this looks like stabilization at a slower pace, not renewed strength, with employers managing risk rather than expanding aggressively. #econsky

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Peer-reviewed replication of the swan meme, with higher statistical power.

Walmart Tops $1 Trillion in Market Value for First Time Ever Walmart crossed a $1 trillion market capitalization this week for the first time in its history. That may sound surprising only because… |... Walmart Tops $1 Trillion in Market Value for First Time Ever Walmart crossed a $1 trillion market capitalization this week for the first time in its history. That may sound surprising only because ma...

Walmart crossed a $1 trillion market value today for the first time. My take is this reflects a consumer that’s still spending but becoming more deliberate, and a market rewarding reliability and everyday value over aspiration. #econsky

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U.S. Manufacturing Shows Its Strongest Turn Since 2022 This morning’s manufacturing data showed a sharp and unexpected improvement in activity. S&P Global’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 in… | ... U.S. Manufacturing Shows Its Strongest Turn Since 2022 This morning’s manufacturing data showed a sharp and unexpected improvement in activity. S&P Global’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 in January...

Manufacturing data sent a clear signal today. My take is U.S. manufacturing has re-entered expansion, led by a surge in new orders. Layoffs are slowing, and manufacturing is shifting from a drag on growth to a stabilizer heading into 2026. #econsky

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Exclusive | Trump Picks Veteran Staffer to Head Bureau of Labor Statistics | Thomas J Thompson Trump Taps Career Economist to Lead U.S. Labor Data Agency According to the The Wall Street Journal, President Trump plans to nominate Brett Matsumoto, a longtime Bureau of Labor Statistics economist...

According to the WSJ, Trump plans to nominate a career economist to lead the BLS. My take is this signals continuity at a moment when trust in labor and inflation data matters most. #econsky

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Producer Prices Came in Hotter Than Expected in December The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Producer Price Index this morning, showing producer prices came in hotter than… | Th... Producer Prices Came in Hotter Than Expected in December The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December Producer Price Index this morning, showing producer prices came in hotter than expec...

Producer prices ran hotter than expected in December. My take is inflation pressure remains uneven, not reaccelerating, as producers absorb volatility amid a cautious consumer. Progress continues, but not smoothly into 2026. #econsky

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Jobless Claims Point to a Labor Market Holding Its Shape The U.S. Department of Labor released its weekly jobless claims report this morning, offering the most timely snapshot of layoffs, job… | Thom... Jobless Claims Point to a Labor Market Holding Its Shape The U.S. Department of Labor released its weekly jobless claims report this morning, offering the most timely snapshot of layoffs, job transit...

Jobless claims were mixed this week, but the signal is clear. My take is the labor market is cooling through slower hiring, not rising layoffs. Firms are protecting headcount, job loss remains contained, and momentum continues to soften heading into 2026. #econsky

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Fed Holds Rates Steady as Officials Signal Greater Comfort With the Outlook The Federal Reserve, which sets U.S. monetary policy to support stable prices and maximum employment, held interest rates… ... Fed Holds Rates Steady as Officials Signal Greater Comfort With the Outlook The Federal Reserve, which sets U.S. monetary policy to support stable prices and maximum employment, held interest rates s...

Fed held rates, but the tone shifted. My take is the bigger risk is psychological, not mechanical. When policy pauses on “comfort,” it can reinforce caution even if fundamentals remain stable. #econsky

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U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops Sharply as Participation Risk Rises Consumer confidence is not a measure of how happy people feel. It reflects whether households feel secure enough to participate in… ... U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops Sharply as Participation Risk Rises Consumer confidence is not a measure of how happy people feel. It reflects whether households feel secure enough to participate in t...

Consumer confidence just cracked. My take is the bigger risk is psychological, not economic. When confidence falls this sharply, it reinforces a cautious consumer mindset even if fundamentals remain stable. #econsky

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Fed Rate Decision Due Wednesday as Officials Weigh Options The Federal Reserve Board meets this week with markets focused less on whether rates move and more on what the decision signals about the… |... Fed Rate Decision Due Wednesday as Officials Weigh Options The Federal Reserve Board meets this week with markets focused less on whether rates move and more on what the decision signals about the ec...

The Fed meets this week amid expectations for further cuts. My take is the bigger risk is psychological, not economic. A pause could reinforce a cautious consumer mindset even if fundamentals remain stable. #econsky

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U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise by the Most in Six Months Durable goods orders are reported monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and measure new orders placed with U.S. manufacturers for goods designed…... U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise by the Most in Six Months Durable goods orders are reported monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and measure new orders placed with U.S. manufacturers for goods designed ...

Durable goods orders rose by the most in six months in November. My take is this signals renewed investment intent, not runaway demand. Businesses are moving forward selectively as uncertainty eases. #econsky

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U.S. Consumer Sentiment Rises to a Five-Month High as Confidence Broadens Consumer sentiment is not a measure of how happy people feel. It is a measure of whether households feel comfortable… | Thoma... U.S. Consumer Sentiment Rises to a Five-Month High as Confidence Broadens Consumer sentiment is not a measure of how happy people feel. It is a measure of whether households feel comfortable particip...

Consumer sentiment rose to a five-month high in January following a meaningful upward revision. My take is this reflects easing anxiety, not renewed optimism. Consumers are still participating, but with shorter horizons and tighter risk tolerance. #econsky

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Consumer Spending Is Still Outpacing Income Growth Yesterday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Personal Income and Outlays report for November, one of the most comprehensive and closely… ... Consumer Spending Is Still Outpacing Income Growth Yesterday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Personal Income and Outlays report for November, one of the most comprehensive and closely w...

Consumer spending is still outpacing income growth. My take is households are borrowing stability from tomorrow, not signaling confidence today. Spending holds up, but flexibility shrinks as 2026 approaches. #econsky

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Jobless Claims Remain Contained as Layoff Pressures Stay Muted The U.S. Department of Labor released its weekly jobless claims report this morning, one of the most timely indicators of labor market… | Thomas J Thompson Jobless Claims Remain Contained as Layoff Pressures Stay Muted The U.S. Department of Labor released its weekly jobless claims report this morning, one of the most timely indicators of labor market stress. The report tracks new filings for unemployment benefits and the number of people who remain on benefits, helping identify whether layoffs are accelerating or remaining contained. For the week ended January 17, initial jobless claims totaled 200 thousand. That was slightly higher than the prior week’s revised level of 199 thousand but well below economist expectations of roughly 209 thousand. The four week moving average declined to 201,500, the lowest level since early 2024, reinforcing that layoffs remain limited. Weekly claims data always requires context. These figures are volatile, frequently revised, and influenced by seasonal and administrative factors, particularly around holidays. For that reason, economists place more weight on trend measures and inflection points than on any single print. By that standard, today’s report does not indicate rising labor market stress. Continuing jobless claims provide a complementary perspective. The number of people receiving ongoing unemployment benefits declined to 1.85 million, the lowest level since November. This suggests that prolonged unemployment is not widening, even as hiring remains cautious and selective. It is important to be precise about what jobless claims measure and what they do not. Claims track layoffs and benefit duration. They do not measure hiring momentum, job openings, wage growth, hours worked, or overall labor demand. A labor market can show low claims even as hiring slows or freezes. That distinction is exactly why claims remain useful. They are not a growth indicator. They function as an early warning system. When claims rise meaningfully and persistently, it often marks the point when labor market cooling turns into broader economic stress. When claims remain contained, it suggests firms are protecting existing employment even as they remain cautious about expanding headcount. This dynamic helps explain why labor market conditions can feel mixed. Employment is being preserved, but momentum is limited. That combination reduces near term downside risk tied to income loss while also constraining upside in confidence and discretionary spending. Havas Edge tracks jobless claims every week not to declare strength, but to monitor whether labor market cooling is turning into labor market stress, a shift that tends to show up here before it appears in spending, demand, and performance data.

Jobless claims were little changed and came in below expectations. My take is the labor market is cooling through slower hiring rather than rising layoffs. Firms are protecting existing employment, but momentum remains limited as we head into 2026. #econsky

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US Pending-Home Sales Plunge by Most Since Start of Pandemic | Thomas J Thompson Pending Home Sales Fell Hard in December The National Association of REALTORS® released its December Pending Home Sales report this morning, and the headline drop was sharp. Pending sales fell 9.3 p...

Pending home sales dropped sharply in December but my take is this was driven by tight inventory and timing, not collapsing demand. Closings rose, listings fell, and buyers hesitated with fewer options. Activity looks delayed, not broken, heading into 2026. #econsky

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Netflix Beats Earnings as the Market Focus Shifts From Growth to Structure Netflix reported earnings today that exceeded expectations, delivering solid revenue and profitability despite a broadly… | Thomas J Thompson Netflix Beats Earnings as the Market Focus Shifts From Growth to Structure Netflix reported earnings today that exceeded expectations, delivering solid revenue and profitability despite a broadly risk-off market. It also reported that subscribers grew nearly 8% over the past year, pushing its global base above 325 million. Under normal circumstances, that combination would define the story. Today, it didn’t. Instead, the earnings print landed amid a deliberate reframing of how Netflix wants to be evaluated. Alongside the results, the company reaffirmed its revised all-cash offer to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s streaming and studio assets at $27.75 per share, replacing its earlier cash-and-stock proposal. At the same time, Netflix has stepped back from emphasizing subscriber metrics in its regular disclosures, signaling a shift toward more traditional financial measures. That context matters. Subscriber growth remains strong, but Netflix is increasingly treating scale as a given rather than the primary driver of valuation. The focus is moving toward how efficiently that scale translates into revenue, margins, and cash generation. Today’s earnings supported that pivot, even as subscriber growth continues to add to the platform’s strategic leverage. The Warner Bros. bid reinforces the message. By moving to an all-cash structure, Netflix is prioritizing certainty and execution at a moment when markets are penalizing complexity and volatility. This contrasts with Paramount Skydance’s higher all-cash offer for the entire Warner Bros. Discovery business, including legacy cable assets that are slated to be spun off separately. The competing bids highlight a broader divide between focused asset acquisition and more expansive, risk-laden consolidation. What made this earnings release notable is that Netflix delivered across both dimensions. Subscriber growth remains intact, but the company is clearly signaling that future value creation will be judged less on how many users it adds and more on how it allocates capital and sustains profitability at scale. Havas Edge tracks moments like this because shifts in how companies frame success often precede changes in investor behavior, capital flows, and the media ecosystem brands ultimately operate within.

Netflix beat earnings and grew subscribers nearly 8% to 325M+. My take is the market is reacting to a shift in how Netflix wants to be valued. Scale is assumed, margins and capital discipline now matter more. This is repricing, not disappointment. #econsky

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Supreme Court Tariff Delay Leaves Trade Policy in Limbo The Supreme Court’s decision today not to rule on the legality of the administration’s emergency tariffs is a significant economic… | Thomas J ... Supreme Court Tariff Delay Leaves Trade Policy in Limbo The Supreme Court’s decision today not to rule on the legality of the administration’s emergency tariffs is a significant economic development,...

Supreme Court delayed its tariff ruling again. My take is that uncertainty is the real signal. When rules stay unclear, firms plan defensively, not optimally, and behavior shifts before the data does. #econsky

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2026 World Economic Forum Kicks Off in Davos The 2026 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting begins today in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, running from January 19 through January 23. Each year, the… | Th... 2026 World Economic Forum Kicks Off in Davos The 2026 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting begins today in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, running from January 19 through January 23. Each year, the forum...

Davos kicks off this week. My take is it matters less for what’s decided and more for how expectations align. When leaders converge on similar views of risk and growth, behavior shifts before the data does. #econsky

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