@matthewlambert.bsky.social
Waxing poetic while eating my curds and whey.
The Great Cocoa Collapse continues as prices have now plunged more than 70% from its December 2024 all-time high 🚨📉
14.02.2026 09:37 — 👍 37 🔁 5 💬 2 📌 3
The Nasdaq 100 has been in more or less a 5% range for the better part of 5 months cc: @hmeisler.bsky.social
13.02.2026 11:35 — 👍 38 🔁 4 💬 2 📌 0
‘So is it ‘mission accomplished’ for the Fed? Erm, nothing in the chart below tells me inflation is trending gently back to 2%. You?’ inflationguy.blog/2026/02/13/i...
13.02.2026 18:38 — 👍 10 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 1
“.. this is a wild chart. 15 years of near-perfect correlation between the $NDX and software $IGV .. now the widest divergence on record.”
- Dee Bosa @cnbc.com
Also, the idea that there is some massive "decoupling" of the dollar exchange rate & Treasury yields is an artifact of looking at only a few years of data. Zoom out:
13.02.2026 21:45 — 👍 23 🔁 5 💬 1 📌 0
Fear has returned to the Stock Market 👻😱🫂
12.02.2026 21:00 — 👍 23 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 0
🚨 cc: @ivanthek.bsky.social
12.02.2026 23:25 — 👍 113 🔁 15 💬 1 📌 1
BREAKING 🚨: Silver
Timberrrrrrrrrrrr 📉📉
Transports -5%+
12.02.2026 17:28 — 👍 9 🔁 2 💬 2 📌 1Cisco down -12%, made new lows every hour, without a single bounce. Eerie stuff.
12.02.2026 20:29 — 👍 12 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
‘The largest wave of corporate bond supply in history is set to be met by a rapidly-growing pool of passive buyers. Some investors are warning that disruption will follow.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
12.02.2026 16:12 — 👍 9 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
The figure represents an 80% plunge from December’s record-high 93,843 domestic deliveries. While seasonal declines between December and January are normal in China, a 45% year-over-year drop is not.
In other words, 73% of Giga Shanghai’s January output left the country.
MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q4 2025
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/mba-mortga...
"In the week ending February 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, a decrease of
5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 231,000 to
232,000."
‘Forget K-shaped, try gray-shaped: Older Americans are powering the economy.’ www.axios.com/2026/02/12/j...
12.02.2026 15:28 — 👍 8 🔁 2 💬 3 📌 0
11.02.2026 23:58 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Today’s jobs report is why you write all your market and economic narratives in pencil.
11.02.2026 13:35 — 👍 35 🔁 2 💬 5 📌 0
"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today."
Just 229,000 jobs added in 2025 with revisions.
a graph of US nonfarm payroll growth year-on-year
The regular annual benchmark revisions to jobs data released today cut roughly 1M from US payroll estimates, revealing a slower pace of job growth throughout 2024 and 2025
11.02.2026 13:40 — 👍 210 🔁 71 💬 8 📌 9
Tech Stocks relative to Non-Tech 🚨 Dot Com Bubble vs. Now 🤯👀
11.02.2026 03:19 — 👍 41 🔁 9 💬 2 📌 2
U.S. Dollar testing 15-Year Support 🚨 It's now or never
11.02.2026 06:54 — 👍 28 🔁 7 💬 2 📌 2
Update: Benchmark revision will likely look bad; revisions to post-March data could also be bad (implied by GS) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
US Consumer Delinquencies Jump to Highest in Almost a Decade www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
10.02.2026 17:26 — 👍 14 🔁 5 💬 0 📌 0Goldman on Q4 GDP: "Core retail sales declined 0.1% in December, below expectations, and the level of core retail sales was revised down by 0.4% in November. We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +1.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized)."
10.02.2026 17:32 — 👍 16 🔁 5 💬 0 📌 1Peter Navarro: "The jobs report comes out tomorrow. We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like ... Wall Street has to adjust for the fact that we're deporting millions of illegals out of the job market."
10.02.2026 14:19 — 👍 4639 🔁 1395 💬 2058 📌 1471
Cathie Wood's Ark Invest $ARKK is now down 38% over the last 5 years. Meanwhile, Nasdaq $QQQ has doubled over that same period.
10.02.2026 15:43 — 👍 28 🔁 7 💬 2 📌 1
What fast food’s downturn says about the US economy www.ft.com/content/9643...
10.02.2026 16:06 — 👍 10 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
Goldman cuts Q4 GDP to 1.6%
10.02.2026 17:29 — 👍 196 🔁 69 💬 8 📌 9
