John Lang

Carbon Competitiveness: Brazil at the Net Zero–Trade Nexus How emissions and climate policies are reshaping global trade — and what India should do to stay competitive.

🌎 New report out: Brazil at the Net Zero–Trade Nexus

Our latest analysis explores how Brazil’s trade competitiveness is being reshaped by global decarbonisation trends — and what that means for policymakers, exporters and investors.

🔗 Read here→

10 Years Post-Paris: A decade that defied predictions The 2015 Paris Agreement changed the course of climate politics. On its 10th anniversary, we look at progress across clean energy, policy, emissions, jobs and more.

Not suggesting job done or that it's ever going to be plain sailing. But the past decade shows that tech, ambition and governance can shift faster than anyone thought possible.

Progress, deeply uneven still, is now measurable and irrefutable. #NotPanglossian

Full report: eciu.net/analysis/rep...

Most consequentially:

Pre-Paris: world heading for ~4°C of heating by 2100.

Post-Paris: down to ~2.6°C because of strengthened policy, #cleantech S-curves and #AmbitionLoops. (That is, assuming current policies are delivered and sustained.)

@frediotto.bsky.social Credit: #WorldWeatherAttribution

Progress on reducing Amazon deforestation. Why? Because of renewed policy and enforcement.

Brazil lost more rainforest than any other country in 2024 —due to to #wildfires — but the last few years show that better policy makes a massive difference.

Now for #COP30 + #TropicalForestsForeverFacility

OK, not progress per se, but signs that climate risk really is becoming financially material, 10 years after Mark Carney's #TragedyOfTheHorizon speech.

We zoom in on the #CanariesInTheCoalMine in the US. #InsurancePremiums

@cathmckenna.bsky.social @marcdaalder.bsky.social

Clean energy #jobs (36.2m) now outnumber those in oil, gas and coal + ICE manufacturing (~33 million), and the gap is widening.

#Renewablesjobs have nearly doubled from 8.5m in 2015 to 16.2m 2023.

Updated @irena-official.bsky.social 2024 data dropping in December... 20m might be a stretch?

Climate policy has proliferated globally:

- #ClimateFrameworkLaws have tripled since 2015.

- Climate councils have also tripled. @climatecouncils.bsky.social

- National climate policy tools are up seven-fold

@oxfordnetzero.bsky.social
@climatepolicyradar.bsky.social
@granthamlse.bsky.social

83% of the 🌎 economy is still under #netzerotargets despite Trump's rollback of climate policy.

19 of the G20 are committed to #netzero by midcentury.

70% of the largest listed companies are still in, inc. most US firms. But yes, integrity's still crap.

@netzerotracker.bsky.social @ketanjoshi.co

Global #CO2emissions plateaued: since 2015, annual emissions (including land use) are up by about 2%, compared with >18% in the decade before Paris.

Since Paris, the annual CAGR increase in the growth rate of all #GHGemissions slowed to 0.32 %, a five-fold drop.

@drsimevans.carbonbrief.org

#ElectricVehicles hit 20% of new car sales globally in 2024, and is on track for 40% by 2030, over 10 years ahead of the IEA’s 2015 forecast.

@colin-walker.bsky.social gets troubled that PHEVs and BEVs are grouped together. Fair. But progress nonetheless. (I'll produce a solely BEV one next time.)

Investment in #cleanenergy now beats fossil fuels 2 to 1, with the gap wider in the Big Four: the US, EU, China and India.

Like in the UK, China's #CleanEnergyEconomy is outpacing the wider economy threefold, now worth 10% of GDP.

@eciu.net @davidrvetter.bsky.social

#Wind deployment kept pace. Added capacity in 2024: triple 2015 IEA forecasts.

Wind's costs have edged up on average recently but both onshore and offshore still deliver electricity below the #fossilfuels average.

Couldn't resist reproducing the @ourworldindata.org graph of solar LCOE dropping off a cliff — yes a 2009 baseline (not 2015) because it tells such a compelling story.

Since 2015, the #costcollapse was still a healthy 66%.

@hannahritchie.bsky.social @chrisstark.bsky.social

#TheSunHasWon — solar beat IEA forecasts 1500% to became the 'cheapest electricity in history' 6 years after The Economist said it was uneconomic.

In 2015, BP predicted the global non-fossil share of generation would rise from 32% to 38% by 2035.

By 2024? >40% of power supply. @ember-energy.org

10 Years Post-Paris: A decade that defied predictions Ten years on from the Paris Agreement, John compares what was expected then with what’s been achieved now — tracking progress across clean energy, policy, emissions, jobs and more.

It's not often you get to tell a positive story about climate. But that’s what our new #10YearsPostParis report and #infographic let us do:

eciu.net/analysis/inf...

The lesson of the last decade? Policy and cooperation matter. Naysayers don't.

@daisydunne.carbonbrief.org @katharinehayhoe.com

Global investment in renewable energy up 10% on 2024 despite Trump rollback | Earthshine Group ApS Global investment in renewable energy up 10%, despite ineffective Trump rollback. Two important reports, out this week: Firstly, Zero Carbon Analytics demonstrate that renewable energy investments ...

Global investment in renewable energy up 10%, despite ineffective Trump rollback.

@johnlang.bsky.social: “Talk of a net zero recession is overblown... while more companies are moving from box-ticking to real emission cuts – a long-overdue reset”.

www.linkedin.com/posts/earths...

What is the current rate and level of human induced heating? How many years do we have left to stay within the 1.5°C warming threshold?

See below for @johnlang.bsky.social‬'s latest infographic showcasing findings from the #IndicatorsofGlobalClimateChange project.
eciu.net/analysis/in...

🌍📉 NEW REPORT OUT NOW

🔍 What happens when a country’s trade partners move faster on net zero than it does? Our analysis finds South Africa faces rising economic and risk as major export markets tighten climate standards.

Read the full report here: zerotracker.net/analysis/sou...

🔎 What are carbon markets, and why do they matter?

@johnlang.bsky.social‬ latest infographic unpacks the essentials of carbon markets, and how Article 6 of the #ParisAgreement enables international trading, and why these details matter for delivering net zero 👇
eciu.net/analysis/in...

Climate commitments without consequences? - Alliance magazine The climate accountability system was born of necessity. Now, more than ever, philanthropy should step up to safeguard why it created it: to increase scrutiny and incentivise action. As the Paris Agreement...

🚨 Net zero pledges are a corporate norm — but what happens when there are no consequences for missing them?

This oped by NZT's @johnlang.bsky.social‬ explores an accountability blackhole which threatens #netzero - our only solution to #climatechange.
www.alliancemagazine.org/blog/climate...

Yergin should also acknowledge the #PrimaryEnergyFallacy. The Energy Institute uses the substitution method, but as @mliebreich.bsky.social notes:

'Better than nothing, but still inadequate... it maintains the primacy in people’s minds of increasing energy supply over efficiently meeting demand.'

Net zero by 2050 struggles with reality The world is using more wind and solar energy than ever — and more oil and coal. That’s because energy transition doesn’t follow neat timelines

Dan Yergin's writing walks a fine line between 'pragmatism' and 'fatalism', as @liamdenning.bsky.social has noted. He crosses it in this piece.

www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

Daniel, for the record, the reasons why China (2060) and India (2070) should target dates after 2050 are well canvassed.

I often appreciate Daniel Yergin's dose of reality, but his claim that 'The 2050 target is enshrined in British law. But it is not embraced by others' is a dose of nonsense.

- 100 countries have a #netzero target in law or policy
- 130+ if we count 'Pledged' and 'Proposed'

@eciu.net @ketanjoshi.co

🚨Some major errors & misleading claims from experienced presenter Nick Robinson on BBC Radio 4 Today, when discussing British Steel with Treasury Minister James Murray

I hope these are corrected on tomorrow's programme, and Robinson sticks to the facts in future.

Here's what he got wrong... 🧵

The @iea.org's latest Global Energy Review might disappoint the EV naysayers

Global EV sales up over 25% in 2024

"EV sales in the UK surged, driven by the ZEV mandate"

"Very rapid deployment of EVs" cited as a reason for slowing growth in global oil demand
t.co/YCuZcIduXR

Image of 49 US states, differentiated by states with net zero targets, those with 80% or over emission reduction targets, and those without strong mitigation targets.

The @netzerotracker.bsky.social now shows a drop from 93% to 78% thanks to Mr Trump's executive orders revoking mention of a federal-level #netzero target.

Account for US states and that 78% becomes 84%. In total, 66% of the US economy *still* has deep reduction targets.

My latest #infographic 👇

Companies are not ditching net zero - they are refining goals | Context Instead of backtracking on net zero, companies are retracting unsubstantiated carbon neutrality claims - a positive development

Are we seeing a ‘net zero recession’ as companies backpedal on their climate commitments?

In fact, we may be seeing a more positive development - what might be called a ‘corporate recalibration’ writes NZT's @johnlang.bsky.social for @contextnewsroom.bsky.social.
www.context.news/net-zero/opi...

How to govern private sector efforts to achieve credible #netzero *and* shift the bounds of political feasibility for faster action?

My latest #infographic of @thomasnhale.bsky.social's #ConveyorBeltModel aims to make the framework accessible to a wider audience.

zerotracker.net/insights/net...

What does it mean to practice ‘good net zero’?

Join our briefing on our new 'Net Zero Good Practice' tool, to discuss how to pursue net zero with integrity, with Alexis McGivern, Frederic Hans and @johnlang.bsky.social.

🗓️ 11.12.24, 10:30-11:30am
Details below👇
https://buff.ly/4fRIjgZ

Net Zero Good Practice We analyse all countries and territories, every region in the 25 largest emitting countries and all cities with 500,000+ inhabitants.

Launched to inform those at #COP29, our new 'Net Zero Good Practice' compares six standard-setting initiatives, highlighting areas of convergence on the what and how of #netzero.

zerotracker.net/net-zero-goo...

Check it out and tell us what you think!

@eciu.net @ketanjoshi.co #LivingDocument