Peter Mullinax

72/61 here near Wallops Island on August 3rd should be a year-round thing.

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Weather in DC/Baltimore this weekend

Between 4:28 PMand 4:58 PM (30 minutes), the Sykesville, MD newly minted mesonet station recorded 2" in 30 minutes. mesonet.umd.edu/station?stid...

Yep, don't like that at all.

New MPD for the Mid-Atlantic is out www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...

mesonet.umd.edu/station?stid...

I visited it today! Should be up and running!

Curious to see how well this line of storms along and north of I-70 maintains itself as storms approach from Frederick County.

Rough go traffic-wise in NYC at the moment.

The first MPD of the day for today's flash flood setup is out: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...

I swear I checked the same thing and thought the same thing haha. No TC but nuts how the setup has some similarities.

Tomer doing what Tomer does- provide excellent analysis!

Here's the latest WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook & my section of the discussion highlighting the region with the Moderate Risk. It's important to note there remains uncertainty on model guidance regarding the placement of the heaviest rainfall. But individual CAMs show as much as 5-8" of rain.

Depolarization streaks with the MCS over Central Kansas. Streaky, negatively-biased Zdr that appear shortly before discharge and ice crystals aloft are being tilted in the direction of the electric field. Vertically oriented > more power returned to the radar in the vertical polarization.

Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #758 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
at Sat, 19 Jul 2025 18:12:38 +0000 via IEMbot
Additional Details Here.

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Me walking out of BWI last night after being in 60s/70s temps and 50s dew points for a week in Fairbanks--

Good evening, Milwaukee!

A convective low moving just inland of the Gulf Coast led to historic rains across southern LA & far southwest MS. Like this system, shearing from the northeast.

While totals of 30”+ are rare along the central Gulf Coast, higher totals for a system that stalls just inland for days are possible.

Those in Texas should have phones and NOAA Weather radio at the ready for what is looking like, unfortunately, another dangerous night of flash flooding. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...

If I have some black out curtains, I'll do okay haha

We leave tomorrow morning, get there in the evening AK time.

Going to Fairbanks, AK with family to see some extended family there and I may be most excited for the highs in the 60s and low 70s.

Definitely going to reflect on these last few days on my upcoming stretch of time off with family. At the end of the day, we need to collectively identify where we all can improve in our respective fields to hopefully avoid such a horrifying tragedy from happening again.

My latest MPD for #Chantal mentions that rainfall rates should steadily decrease tonight, but the storm's generally slow progression & still highly efficient rainfall rates will keep the significant flash flood threat going through this evening. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...

Additional flash flooding in south-central TX possible this afternoon: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...

Local warning forecast offices issue the official Flood Watches & Warnings. Our MPDs serve as a notice not just to those offices but external partners about the potential for flash flooding that usually is highlighted within a 6 hour window once issued. Quite a few of us here at WPC do MPDs

These are not warnings, rather outlooks that discuss the potential for excessive rainfall rates that could or likely will cause flash flooding. Here's a description of the product. I did the first MPD highlighted in this post (582). Other forecasters that night and the next day issued the others.

BalancedWx Special: Tragic flash flooding in the Texas Hill Country Sometimes the worst case scenario sadly happens

Given some of the chatter in the media about the hydrometeorology of the TX Hill Country tragedy and the NWS performance, felt it was important to try to give a summary from my perspective of being around a lot of events like this. Thinking about everyone impacted.

open.substack.com/pub/balanced...

Note that these are issued as short range flash flood potential graphics and discussions from our national center (WPC), technically not warnings. Warnings are issued from the local weather forecast offices.

There is concern for the ongoing storms over southern Burnet county to build west into other hard hit counties. Seeing that now on radar in southern Llano county, with HRRR & RRFS guidance showing this potential well for at least a couple hours. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...