Thomas Aubrey

Great article from @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social who
kindly quoted my research on funding & financing infrastructure without negatively impacting the public finances. The Chancellor can pursue an alternative path.. @greenmirandahere.bsky.social @tonytassell.bsky.social @pmdfoster.bsky.social

Pimco and BlackRock tell Reeves to build bigger fiscal buffer Big bond investors say chancellor needs to go beyond slim £9.9bn of margin left against key borrowing rule

www.ft.com/content/7345... Highlights the flaw at the heart of the Chancellor's strategy in centralising financing in the hope that future productivity growth increases. But there are other alternatives. www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/blog/financing-infrastructure-without-unnerving-the-bond-market/

It’s time to go Dutch to solve Britain’s housing crisis Using public corporations to finance infrastructure promises to revolutionise the nation’s prospects

My Times piece: We can learn from the Netherlands on how better to finance infrastructure spending and more house building, without spooking the markets:

It’s time to go Dutch to solve Britain’s housing crisis

www.thetimes.com/article/ce46...

YouTube video by Center for Strategic & International Studies China’s Influence in Pharmaceutical Supply Chains: A Conversation with Dr. Yanzhong Huang

Great podcast on the vertical integration between the chemicals and pharma sector in China and how it became dominant globally www.youtube.com/watch?v=8g4l...

China to launch commercial underwater data center — facility expected to consume 90% less power for cooling Natural immersion cooling saves a lot of power.

Innovation in China: Launch of commercial underwater data centre www.tomshardware.com/desktops/servers/china-to-launch-commercial-underwater-data-center-facility-expected-to-consume-90-percent-less-power-for-cooling

The conservative hardliner who could become Japan’s first female PM Veteran politician Sanae Takaichi has called for a return to ‘Abenomics’ to rejuvenate ailing ruling party

Sanae Takaichi has been elected lesder of the LDP party in Japan and is set to become the country’s first female prime minister. Profile here by @urbandirt.bsky.social of the conservative who has dreamed of becoming the Margaret Thatcher of Japan www.ft.com/content/18d7...

How can we have new towns, good homes and afford it? Con Keating and Thomas Aubrey are speaking on this this morning at 10.30 am and you can hear them discussing the document from the link here Click here to join at 10.30  September 30th (Today) This…

Looking forward to speaking with Con Keating about why Financing New Towns with Gilts won’t work at 10.30AM today
henrytapper.com/2025/09/30/h...

@jenwilliamsft.bsky.social These are annual amounts so multiply by 20 to give you infrastructure funding £££

A land value tax is complex to implement but a proportional council tax gets you most of the way there. For infrastructure you would need land value capture (see £ by region) & business rates needs to remove plant & machinery from valuation centreforprogressivecapitalism-archive.net/wp-content/u...

New Towns 🧵@pickardje.bsky.social @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social @chriscurtis94.bsky.social

Thomas Aubrey and Con Keating on why new towns should not be financed by Government Gilts Thomas Aubrey and Con Keating have joined up to speak on plans to finance infrastructure. If you are interested in this subject, here is Thomas’ paper, we are looking forward to hearing from …

Following the publication of the New Towns Taskforce Report and the government’s initial response, Con Keating and I are talking about why the government shouldn’t fund them with gilts on Tuesday at the pensions coffee morning. henrytapper.com/2025/09/26/t...

speculative housing model which will likely worsen the public finances driving gilt yields higher.

generate the level of housing delivery that are needed. Nor will they be of much use for the delivery of New Towns. In conclusion we can either go down the self-funding route using public corporation debt that is paid back by hypothecated cash flows and lower gilt yields OR use PPP to boost the

failure. Hence the Housing Bank is largely about trying to get speculative housing projects off the ground where they don't meet the developer profit thresholds hence the taxpayer will be subsidising these projects. While there is some rationale for provision at the margin, this will not be able to

Transactions (FTs) will come on to the government's balance sheet net of its liabilities, thereby placing less pressure on the fiscal rule. But this looks a lot like financial engineering that is merely creating a fiscal illusion. Moreover, these FTs are ONLY to be permitted in the event of market

can make a difference but given the infrastructure deficit of some £700bn there is a limit to what this can do. Finally the National Housing Bank which has the capacity based on HCLG CDEL limits to provide £5.5bn of guarantees and £10.5bn of loans/equity (assume most will be loans) These Financial

England’s social housing funds ‘less generous’ than £39bn settlement suggests Analysis indicates spending of about £3bn a year until 2029, similar to AHP’s money for current financial year

National Housing Delivery Fund (£5bn) and the £39bn commitment to social housing investment. The £39bn is genuinely new money BUT a large chunk is backloaded www.ft.com/content/92a1... and given the state of the public finances could be chopped by the next government. The £5bn in grants from NHDF

development and the direction is justified in the public interest." This clarification is hugely important and highlights the opportunity that all areas have to help fund large scale projects NOW. 7) The department in its response notes the National Housing Bank (£16bn), Capital grant for the

stating: "The government expects delivery bodies to use the power introduced by the Levelling-up and Regeneration Act 2023 to acquire land for new towns development by compulsory purchase with a direction removing ‘hope value’ compensation, where affordable housing is to be provided by the

budgeting frameworks and the cycle of spending reviews. 6) One oversight in the report is that no mention was made of the Levelling Up & Regeneration Act provisions to ignore hope value under certain circumstances (Section 190). However, the government in their response to the Report DID mention it

planning permission and building infrastructure, and selling this in ‘serviced parcels’ to residential and commercial developers. 5) Crucially the report notes that publicly issued long term loans should empower development corporations to manage their budgets outside of the government’s annual

Financing infrastructure without unnerving the bond market - Bennett School of Public Policy The Chancellor’s attempt to increase capital investment in her first budget resulted in a negative reaction from the bond market. As growth slows, the Chancellor needs to fundamentally rethink her app...

But misaligned incentives between funding and financing will result in poor governance outcomes as noted here www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/blog/financi... 4) The report gets to the heart of the business model stating “the public can ‘capture’ the increase in land value by buying land before granting

long run tax revenues might increase – BUT this is a strategy of HOPE not prudence. Gilt investors will therefore seek higher yields. 3) The report is aware that “Infrastructure delivery could prove a binding constraint on new town delivery” including transport, utilities & social infrastructure.

Chancellor’s focus on public-private partnerships is wrong headed & largely financial engineering to get around her own fiscal rules. www.longfinance.net/news/pamphle... Government investment will be needed for the upfront infrastructure enabling the private body to meet profit thresholds. In the

the public finances and fewer of these New Towns will ever get built. A few comments on the report: 1) Crucial stat: buildout rates for New Towns are 4X faster than the speculative housing model 2) Private sector partners and investors WILL play a key role in the delivery of new towns. BUT the

The New Towns Taskforce has done a superb job in making the case for New Towns in terms of rationale and location. However, the funding & financing of these bodies is still up from grabs. If the Chancellor’s public private partnership is used this will continue to worsen www.gov.uk/government/p...

Government’s industrial strategy needs to focus on execution if it is to succeed - Bennett School of Public Policy The government’s newly published green paper on industrial strategy aims to revive Britian’s sclerotic rate of productivity growth. Thomas Aubrey asks to what extent this industrial strategy is likely...

plans for growth. www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/blog/industrial-strategy-green-paper/

Financing infrastructure without unnerving the bond market - Bennett School of Public Policy The Chancellor’s attempt to increase capital investment in her first budget resulted in a negative reaction from the bond market. As growth slows, the Chancellor needs to fundamentally rethink her app...

finances including using public corporation debt to finance the wave of new towns without any cost to the tax payer www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/blog/financing-infrastructure-without-unnerving-the-bond-market/ and an industrial strategy that places the onus on firms and sectors to draw up their

Rachel Reeves will struggle to sell growth case to UK fiscal watchdog, economists warn Chancellor wants the OBR to give her credit for trade deals and proposed EU mobility scheme

This piece suggests the Chancellor is increasingly desperate in her search for growth www.ft.com/content/2865... The reality is that most "Whitehall ideas" will not add to growth and hence the importance of the OBR. But there are many options to drive growth without negatively impacting the public

It generates a very high return on capital for the current volume housebuilders. You would need to shift to a plan-led model & away from a speculative model. A fall in the ROC would stimulate more modular construction as in C. Europe. But until that happens there isn't much incentive!