John R. Deni

Orbán’s nemesis turns his nationalist playbook against him By adopting the language of sovereignty and skepticism toward Brussels, Péter Magyar has become the Hungarian prime minister’s most serious challenger yet.

Orbán’s nemesis turns his nationalist playbook against him www.politico.eu/article/hung...

Pentagon aggressively lobbies EU against Buy European weapons push In previously unreported remarks, the U.S. administration warned Brussels that it will retaliate if Europeans “strong-arm American companies out of the market.”

This is counterproductive. If we want Europeans to stand up, they need large, sustainable defense budgets, and that's only possible if those budgets yield European jobs -- "Pentagon aggressively lobbies EU against Buy European weapons push" www.politico.eu/article/wash...

Russia publicly pitches $14 trillion economic deal to Trump tied to lifting US sanctions "The portfolio of potential U.S.-Russia projects is over $14 trillion," Kremlin economic negotiator Kirill Dmitriev said.

Just Say No (because strategic competition demands it) -- "Russia publicly pitches $14 trillion economic deal to Trump tied to lifting US sanctions" kyivindependent.com/russia-publi...

NATO Trains Storming Baltic Beach to Deter Russia Thousands of NATO troops including from Spain and Turkey joined an exercise on Germany's Baltic coast that defense officials labelled a show of readiness to deter Russia.

NATO [and specifically its Allied Reaction Force] Trains Storming Baltic Beach to Deter Russia thedefensepost.com/2026/02/19/n...

Russian 'mothership' drones prompt Ukraine to weigh passport requirement for SIM card sales Russian forces are using LTE mobile networks and Ukrainian SIM cards to remotely control FPV drones, Serhii Beskrestnov, adviser to Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, said.

Russian 'mothership' drones prompt Ukraine to weigh passport requirement for SIM card sales kyivindependent.com/ukraine-weig...

Ukraine secures nearly $38 billion in military aid after Ramstein meeting Ukraine's partners pledged nearly $38 billion in new military aid following the meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in the Ramstein format on Feb. 12, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said.

Ukraine secures nearly $38 billion in military aid after Ramstein meeting kyivindependent.com/ukraines-def...

Russian losses exceeded recruitment for second month in a row, Ukraine says Russian troop losses in January exceeded the number of newly mobilized and contracted soldiers for the second consecutive month, Robert "Magyar" Brovdi, commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces,...

Russian losses exceeded recruitment for second month in a row, Ukraine says kyivindependent.com/russian-loss...

Russian losses in Ukraine 'astonishing,' former MI6 chief says "The losses are terrible, and even the Russians will struggle to replace that level of losses," Sir Richard Moore, the former MI6 chief, said.

Russian losses in Ukraine 'astonishing,' former MI6 chief says
kyivindependent.com/putin-has-al...

Ugh. Thanks for reminding me.

Starlink ‘catastrophe’ for Russia as Musk shuts down access across front line in Ukraine "The enemy at the front doesn't have a problem, the enemy has a catastrophe," Serhiy "Flash" Beskrestnov said.

This might *just* convince me to rekindle my long dormant account at that *other* social media site: "Starlink ‘catastrophe’ for Russia as Musk shuts down access across front line in Ukraine" kyivindependent.com/not-a-proble...

U.S. Allies Are Drawing Closer to China, but on Beijing’s Terms

Strategery at work: "U.S. Allies Are Drawing Closer to China, but on Beijing’s Terms" www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/w...

Cables show Trump’s moves on Greenland rattled other nations State Department cables obtained by POLITICO lay bare the frustrations — and aspirations — of US allies and adversaries watching Trump seek the Danish island.

Sounds like further evidence of strategic malpractice, generating unnecessary discord, strengthening our adversaries, and weakening our security: "Cables show Trump’s moves on Greenland rattled other nations" politi.co/4qOHwTu via @politico.com

The US needs Europe in a Taiwan fight. Here’s why, and how to make it happen. - Breaking Defense Analysts are expecting a Taiwan conflict to begin as early as 2027. As that date draws near, the US needs to look to European nations for support.

The US needs Europe in a Taiwan fight. Here’s why, and how to make it happen. breakingdefense.com/2026/01/the-...

Trump Announces 10 Percent Tariff on European Countries in Standoff Over Greenland

After what appeared like a not-as-bad-as-it-coulda-been 2025, the unraveling of the Western world and the transatlantic community seems to be accelerating. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/17/u...

European troops arrive in Greenland as Trump throws another curveball Russia said NATO members were bolstering their military presences in the Arctic territory “under the false pretext of a growing threat from Moscow and Beijing.”

If the goal is to get our European allies to expend resources on military operations that are unrelated to the most significant threats we face today, then we are witnessing incredible success. www.nbcnews.com/world/greenl...

7 Out Of 10 Voters Do Not Want The U.S. To Take Military Action Against Iran For Killing Of Protesters, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; 70% Say Presidents Should Seek Congressional Appr... "Talk of the U.S. military potentially intervening in Iran's internal chaos gets a vigorous thumbs down, while voters signal Congressional approval should be a backstop against military involvement in...

Meanwhile, "86 percent [of Americans] opposed using military force to take over Greenland, and 55 percent opposed buying it." poll.qu.edu/poll-release...

Denmark and allies boost Greenland military footprint as Trump ramps up pressure The deployment comes as U.S. President Donald Trump intensifies talk of taking over the Arctic island.

This is what disaster in transatlantic relations looks like. Instead of spending money on defense against our common Kremlin enemy, we've compelled our best friends to do so against us. "DNK & allies boost Greenland military footprint as Trump ramps up pressure" www.politico.eu/article/denm... 😞

Netherlands dials back on US Caribbean drug missions amid Venezuela tensions Dutch defense forces traditionally worked closely with the U.S. but are balking after U.S. attacks on suspected smuggling boats.

Just what we needed -- less help from friends. "Netherlands dials back on US Caribbean drug missions amid Venezuela tensions" www.politico.eu/article/neth...

Le20h-France Télévisions on X: "🔴ENTRETIEN EXCLUSIF : "Il n’y a pas de scénario où les États-Unis seraient mis dans une situation de violer la souveraineté danoise." Emmanuel Macron réagit aux propos de Donald Trump sur le Groenland. #JT20h https://t.co/uOTEGfBGIC" / X 🔴ENTRETIEN EXCLUSIF

For one of Europe's 'big thinkers', I'm a little surprised at such a failure of imagination: x.com/le20hfrancet...

A cost-benefit analysis would also help -- what are the costs associated with 'owning' it (something tells me it'd immediately become a large net recipient of federal transfers) vs. those associated with merely expanding our mil/econ footprint there?

I think it depends on what part of 'DC' we're talking about.

Danish prime minister says a US takeover of Greenland would mark the end of NATO Her comments came in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's renewed call for the strategic, mineral-rich Arctic island to come under U.S. control in the aftermath of the weekend military operation ...

These comments -- "Danish prime minister says a US takeover of Greenland would mark the end of NATO" -- are getting a lot of press... but, given the politics of DC today, I doubt they form the deterrent Danish leaders hope for. DNK needs a different line of argument. www.npr.org/2026/01/06/n...

Joint Statement on Greenland Statement by President Macron of France, Chancellor Merz of Germany, Prime Minister Meloni of Italy, Prime Minister Tusk of Poland, Prime Minister Sánchez of Spain, Prime Minister Starmer of the Unite...

Joint Statement on Greenland clarifies what shouldn't be too terribly confusing: "Greenland belongs to its people. It is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland." www.governo.it/en/articolo/...

'Welcome back to life' — Ukraine's HUR faked death of top anti-Putin Russian commander, claimed Kremlin bounty money Denis Kapustin, commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), was reported killed in action on Dec. 27.

'Welcome back to life' — Ukraine's HUR faked death of top anti-Putin Russian commander, claimed Kremlin bounty money
kyivindependent.com/ukraines-hur...

Russia is ready to legally confirm that it has no intention of attacking NATO, deputy minister says Russia is ready to confirm in a legal agreement that it has no intention of attacking either the European Union or the U.S.-led NATO military alliance, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov s...

By 'legal', do they mean Budapest-Memorandum legal, CFE-Treaty legal, or Vienna-Documents legal? "Russia is ready to legally confirm that it has no intention of attacking NATO, deputy minister says" www.reuters.com/world/china/...

NATO and Article 5: The Transatlantic Alliance and the Twenty-First-Century Challenges of Collective Defense NATO and Article 5: The Transatlantic Alliance and the Twenty-First-Century Challenges of Collective Defense [Deni, John R.] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. NATO and Article 5: The Transatlantic Alliance and the Twenty-First-Century Challenges of Collective Defense

And this is nothing new -- as I argued in Chapter 3 here (www.amazon.com/NATO-Transat...). RU won't change its stripes. If Europeans finally learned 'Wandel durch Handel' doesn't work, seems unwise to try to convince them otherwise. 5/5

Namely, the Russians - they have no interest in playing by the rules of the game, in enacting the kind of transparency necessary, in forgoing corruption as a central feature of society and government, or in treating smaller neighbors as if they are sovereign and independent. 4/

This approach was tried for 25 years, from the end of the Cold War until 2014. It didn't work then, despite a couple of resets, and it won't work today for one primary reason... 3/

...is the stunning naivete behind this notion: "The U.S. negotiating team sees shared economic activity and energy interdependence as the cornerstone of its business-for-peace philosophy" 2/

Exclusive | U.S. Blueprint to Rewire Economies of Russia, Ukraine Sets Off Clash With Europe Undisclosed appendices to current peace proposals detail the Trump administration’s plan to unlock frozen Russian funds held in Europe and bring Moscow in from the cold.

What's most stunning about this non-paywalled story ("U.S. Blueprint to Rewire Economies of Russia, Ukraine Sets Off Clash With Europe" www.wsj.com/world/europe...) ... 1/