Thomas Fraise

[Numéro 139-140]
La menace en masses. La guerre « moderne », la cohésion sociale et le déploiement d’une surveillance à mobile sécuritaire (États-Unis, années 1910-1930), par Alexandre Rios-Bordes
A lire sur CAIRN : shs.cairn.info/revue-cultur...

Un article pour celles et ceux intéressés par le développement du renseignement policier en France

Merci !!

Et d'ailleurs, les adversaires de la Russie semblent le penser aussi, puisqu'ils prennent la capacité de dissuasion russe au sérieux. Maintenant, j'imagine que nous ne sommes jamais à l'abri d'un accident. Mais effectivement, pas comparable à, disons, l'état de l'infanterie

Je ne suis pas spécialiste des forces nucléaires russes, donc je ne peux pas forcément très bien répondre mais globalement, si la question est "Est-ce que leurs forces nucléaires sont en état de fonctionnement", je dirais que la réponse est Oui.

D'un point de vue général, la quasi-totalité des Etats dotés sont lancés, depuis plusieurs années, dans des programmes de modernisation à grande échelle. La course demeure encore relativement lente, mais le départ a bel et bien été donné.

Sur le plan quantitatif, le nombre de nouvelles têtes entrant dans les arsenaux dépassera bientôt le nombre de têtes démantelées chaque année (cf: www.sipri.org/yearbook/2025), et les capacités de production augmentent.

Sur le plan qualitatif, les grands Etats dotés développent de nouveaux systèmes stratégiques ou "tactiques", tandis que certaines promettent des investissements massifs dans des contre-mesures.

Avec la fin du traité New Start, le risque de prolifération nucléaire s’accroît Dernier accord en vigueur entre Moscou et Washington sur le contrôle des arsenaux nucléaires, le traité New Start expire ce jeudi 5 février 2026. La fin de cet accord, qui fixait une limite au nombre ...

Je suis ravi d'être cité dans cet article de La Croix. J'y défends l'idée que nous ne sommes pas à l'orée d'une possible course aux armements, mais plus probablement déjà en plein dedans.
www.la-croix.com/internationa...

a cartoon character from the emperor 's new groove is standing on a blue carpet in a dark room . ALT: a cartoon character from the emperor 's new groove is standing on a blue carpet in a dark room .

La revue Cultures & Conflits est sur Bluesky ! N'hésitez pas à nous suivre pour retrouver les derniers numéros publiés, ainsi que les publications anticipées. Et n'hésitez pas à nous soumettre vos articles à l'adresse redactionagc@gmail.com !

tbf, In Bed with the Right has an excellent episode on most things relevant today.

In Bed with the Right has an excellent episode on [something similar to] this. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e...

Existential silos: The compartmentalization of the futures of environmental change and the nuclear threat Nuclear weapons and environmental change are two existential threats to humanity. This article shows that current policy and academic discourse neglec…

The article, written with S. van Buuren and B. Pelopidas, came out in October but I forgot to promote it here. It is available open access, thanks to the University of Copenhagen, here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

The fifth is the set of political and strategic interactions. Climate change reshapes politics: it can fuel conflict, weaken deterrence under existential stress. Nuclear & climate policy choices create vicious circles, trade-offs—or virtuous ones. They must be planned together.

The fourth is the material connections between the two. Nuclear arsenals damage the environment through energy-intensive production, waste, and emissions, while climate change threatens the safety of nuclear sites via floods, fires, heat, and instability. These risks compound.

The third is the climate impact of nuclear war. The nuclear winter hypothesis has had a null effect on nuclear force sizing, overall. Similarly, climate collapse scenarios generally do not include this possibility in it.

The second is the global policy coordination mechanisms which can be used to address one, or the other. Mechanisms put in place to address climate change related issues can have a positive effect on tension and trust levels, thus creating ground for nuclear disarmament initiative, for example.

We find that there is ground to imagine several sets of potential connections, however.
The first is the link between the growth of civilian nuclear energy and nuclear weapons programs, which can produce both negative security and environmental consequences.

Reviewing both policy documents from major nuclear armed states and the relevant academic literature, we find a compartimentalization between the study of those threats. Essentially, we fail to imagine potential interactions because we do not look for them. Therefore, we ignore them.

Existential silos: The compartmentalization of the futures of environmental change and the nuclear threat Nuclear weapons and environmental change are two existential threats to humanity. This article shows that current policy and academic discourse neglec…

[Thread] The nuclear arms race is accelerating, with new START about to expire. Climate change is also accelerating, and so is environmental degradation. How do those two terrifying dynamics affect each other?
Our recent article tackles this question.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

I am so tired of all the things that we said would happen, and were routinely ignored or dismissed by tech bros and neoliberals for saying would happen, continuing to happen, in exactly the way that we said they would happen.

What is very French about this is also the fact that, in practice, very few teachers actually do all that, and very few students actually go through ombudsmen when they have questions. It's a great system no one really uses, even though it's convenient, and that, I think, is the Frenchiest thing.

C’est un problème propre au GC, je pense. On voit le même souci avec leur fascination pour Le mage du Kremlin. Ils n’ont pas de théorie de l’influence des intellectuels sur le pouvoir et supposent, sans jamais le prouver, l’existence d’un mécanisme direct entre pensée et action politique.

This is incredibly stupid and dangerous for many reasons, one of which being that it debases the concept of love.

This is quite an uplifting point, indeed!

Texte très intéressant. Un des ressorts de la fascination pour ce livre dans les milieux intellectuels est clairement la promesse que ce récit offre : un monde dans lequel les intellectuels peuvent directement influencer le pouvoir. Il faut être un intellectuel pour croire ça.

Great piece by S. Fetter and S. Phillipe on UK targeting policies and their consequences. This point, on intent and harm, is essential for any debates on the legality and morality of nuclear deterrence choices.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Flora Lewin's 1967 book on the Palomares accident is not great, but its last lines are very illuminating about the nature of the nuclear age:

I did not know that. That’s… bad. I get why people praise the speech - there is indeed much to praise in it. But it is striking how the future order he envisions is intrinsically future-less.

It is a powerful speech.
Not once does it mentions the environmental and climate crisis. It mentions a series of initiatives which are likely to accelerate this crisis.