Ben Ezra

Japan Exit Poll Shows Takaichi's Party Set to Win Majority Japan Election 2026: Takaichi Predicted to Widen LPD Support. Live News

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is set to secure a resounding victory, with polls showing her party on track to emerge from Sunday’s parliamentary election with a standalone majority in the lower house. Follow live updates.

Don’t bet on dollar dethronement If you want to see how entrenched the US currency is in the global system, look at the foreign exchange swap market

Coming in April: the paperback edition of my book KING DOLLAR, with a new preface reflecting developments in 2025, i.e. the follies of Trump & Co.
Do those developments vitiate the book’s thesis that dollar dominance is all but impregnable?
My answer, hot off the press:
🧵
www.ft.com/content/a326...

Vietnam willing to boost US purchases, trade minister says, as new round of tariff talks begins Vietnam is willing to increase purchases of U.S. goods, especially machinery and high‑tech products, its trade minister said on Wednesday, as the Southeast Asian nation began its sixth round of tariff negotiations in Washington this week.

Vietnam willing to boost US purchases, trade minister says, as new round of tariff talks begins reut.rs/4qeCBd6

www.patreon.com/posts/149414...

#Econsky

Japan’s finance ministry isn’t a massive macro hedge fund It’s just made hundreds of billions of dollars by accident

We’re not saying that Japan’s finance ministry is a macro hedge fund, we’re just noting that it has … accidentally made hundreds of billions of dollars from FX punts. www.ft.com/content/b88a...

The Dollar Isn’t Falling — It’s Recycling The narrative is everywhere.

open.substack.com/pub/emerging...

The popular narrative is that the dollar is stumbling under protectionism and policy risk. With gold and silver elevated, many assume the debasement trade is back. But that misses the real story

#Econsky

The debt-fueled economy.
"US Consumers Keep Spending Faster Than Their Incomes Are Growing"
www.bloomberg.com/news/article... #EconSky

Why Capital Is Quietly Leaving India — and What It Means for the INR India’s Macro Problem Is Capital, Not Trade

open.substack.com/pub/emerging...

The Indian rupee battered down against US Dollar and trading at record low levels of 92/ USD. But this persistent rupee depreciation is more of a capital flow problem rather than a Trade problem.

Emerging Lens Analyses!

#Econsky

Excellent writing Michael Sir . It's also very true for India too

Current account deficit and Capital account Surplus ~ Classic Balance of payments equations

The rupee is getting hit because the foreign capital is not coming , and it's flowing out.

It's because of US Tariffs , weak FDI or FPI outflows

The flows are fine because of IT exports and Remittances

Excellent writing by Michael Sir . It's also very true for India too

When Global Bond Markets Start Talking to Each Other Global capital flows are behaving in a way that feels counter-intuitive at first glance.

open.substack.com/pub/emerging...

Bond volatility is going global. EMs look stronger, U.S. debt is heavier, Japan’s long end is cracking and gold is making new highs. The long end is talking. Are we listening?

#Econsky

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Financial Institutions start allocating more to Gold

Morgan Stanley, for instance, has proposed an alternative 60/20/20 strategy, swapping out some fixed income for gold, arguing that the precious metal is a better inflation hedge. Gold hit another record high this week.

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Bloomberg: " Meanwhile, from a total returns perspective, developed nations’ sovereign bonds haven’t rewarded long-term investors.They’ve been in the red, with Japan dishing out the ugliest performance"

#Econsky

Carney's speech now silver standard #econsky

EU Freezes US Trade Deal Approval Over Trump’s Greenland Threats A trade deal between the US and European Union is on hold after the European Parliament decided to freeze a ratification vote in response to President Donald Trump’s escalating threats to seize Greenland.

A trade deal between the US and European Union is on hold after the European Parliament decided to freeze a ratification vote in response to President Trump’s escalating threats to seize Greenland

Treasury yields inch lower as investors monitor escalating trade tensions U.S. Treasury yields declined on Wednesday as tariff threats ignited 'sell America' trade fears and investors continued to monitor geopolitical uncertainty.

Treasury yields inch lower as investors monitor escalating trade tensions

Exiting US Assets Is a ‘Dangerous Bet’, UBS CEO Ermotti Says Europeans tempted to weaponize their holdings of US government debt amid the standoff with President Trump over Greenland are making a “dangerous bet” that risks backfiring.

Investors seeking to dump US assets amid geopolitical uncertainty would be taking a “dangerous bet,” UBS Group AG Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti said in a Bloomberg Television interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland

Trump says he won't attend emergency Paris meeting on Greenland called by Macron Trump declines to attend Macron's emergency meeting on Greenland, amidst rising tensions with European leaders over tariffs.

French President Emmanuel Macron this week called for an emergency meeting in Paris with European leaders to address tensions with the U.S. over President Donald Trump's pursuit to acquire Greenland as well as tariffs.

www.thehindu.com/news/interna...

Danish pension fund AkademikerPension to exit US Treasuries By Investing.com Danish pension fund AkademikerPension to exit US Treasuries

Danish pension fund to dump US treasuries
"The US is basically not a good credit and long-term the US government finances are not sustainable," says chief investment officer

www.investing.com/news/stock-m...

Its kind of funny that the leading edges of both the US public and private sectors are converging (but for different reasons) on “Buy more of our stuff, world.”

Well articulated piece.

Opinion | I’m the Secretary General of the Council of Europe. This Is Something I Thought I’d Never Have to Write. International law is either universal or meaningless. Greenland will show which one we choose.

In @nytopinion.nytimes.com

“When I took my post as secretary general of the Council of Europe just over a year ago, I did not think that I would ever have to write about the possibility of the United States taking military action against a member state,” Alain Berset writes.

More Dollar sell off is coming as Trump's Greenland Grab is bearish for USD.

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That could create expectations of weakness in the market, spurring other asset owners to also cut holdings, pushing up long-term yields and creating contagion across other US financial markets

FT:

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"If Europe wants to deter Washington from a Greenland takeover, it could signal it wants government-affiliated investors such as public pension funds to review and potentially scale back US Treasuries exposure. "

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Is this the world that we are living in? Or creating a world that our children no longer can live peacefully?

AI without regulations and rules of law is inherently dangerous for this society.

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Elon Musk's Grok has been accused recently of making sexualised images of minors and children, without Impunity?

I no longer use Twitter.

European leaders say they won’t be ‘blackmailed’ by Trump’s tariff threats Eight European countries that sent troops to Greenland said they stood united with Denmark after President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on them.

Eight European countries that sent troops to Greenland said they stood united with Denmark after President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on them.

French President Emmanuel Macron said “no intimidation nor threat will influence us.”

EVERCORE: “.. If implemented, [Trump’s Greenland] tariffs would violate the U.S.-EU and U.S.-UK trade deals struck earlier this year, sending a worrisome signal not just to those trading partners but to any other that has made or is contemplating a trade deal with Trump.”