Nick M. Velli

'Very bad': Nobel-winner Paul Krugman warns Trump economy is a 'bubble' Nobel Prize-winning economist and political commentator Paul Krugman issued a dire warning in his new Substack post, published Wednesday: the stock market is currently not properly pricing in the risk...

@paulkrugman.substack.com.web.brid.gy lays out how the stock market is most likely a bubble at this point & that the broader economy is being destabilized by Trump's tariffs & mass deportations. That won't be helped by Chat GPT-5's underwhelming launch & what that means for #AI.
#EconSky

We have come to the point where the highest tariffs since Smoot-Hawley are being ignored but the appointment of some crank to a temporary Fed governorship is the news of the day. Because the only, absolutely only thing that matters now is: WILL THEY OPEN THE MONEY SPIGOTS

Interesting look at a US exporter losing sales overseas not bc of retaliatory tariffs or higher input costs but bc his customers simply don't want to buy American any more. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

@justinwolfers.bsky.social @jaredb-econ.bsky.social l @pkrugman.bsky.social

#EconSky

The Anticorruption Angle Democrats should build a foreign policy around fighting graft.

“The United States may have given up its leading role in the fight against corruption, but Americans still care about it.” ‪

Casey Michel, Trevor Sutton, and Matthew Duss argue that anticorruption is the future of U.S. foreign policy:

Every accusation was a confession. Weaponizing the government, falsifying data, suppression of free speech

The concerns might be rippling through Wall Street but the retail traders are unfazed and keep buying every dip. One day there will be a hell of a Netflix documentary about the great Wiley E Coyote market of 2025

Oh but he's so entertaining! He brawls and yells and dicks through life. Just gotta love it. A real man.

Grocery stores that have been eating the cost of tariffs are about to pump the brakes. Some are looking to be more transparent about the coming price hikes.

Starting tomorrow, new tariffs of 15% to 50% hit a wide range of food items.

If you’ve got a household food budget, this is a must-watch.

A couple of days on Robinhood and the suspicion is inevitable.

He finally identified the most unqualified lickspittle in the room

Funny how nobody talks anymore about how obviously illegal these tariffs are. There is clearly no national economic emergency surrounding gold bars. Nor was there ever one around Brazil. This is a laughable abuse of power and everyone just stands around with their mouth open.

A magnificent, huge, and patriotic economic announcement.

That'll be good enough for a little market rally

I don't think most people don't have a clear idea how tariffs work. Many still think the sentence "Trump slaps tariff on China" means China now has to pay Trump or the US. It's just a story they like the sound of and you often can't get through to them.

Ten indicators of what’s going on with America’s economy Trumponomics has begun to hit America’s growth

Just a few months ago many investors were convinced that Trumponomics would energise America’s business environment. These ten charts show how that has not been the case

Firing the score keepers is of course not enough. They'll have to cook up a complete propaganda story to counter reality. A full court press on FOX and in the Internet claiming all the data is rigged and presenting a rose tinted alternate reality

Bloomberg TV is openly talking about how the Swiss can bribe Trump and none of them see a problem with this #EconSky

Not sure if I agree that that's a good thing. Sure, investment in infrastructure and capital stock isn't bad. But that absurd concentration of it means we're betting a big chunk of the farm on whatever 5 companies think is best for just them.

Jesus now we have to re-invent Substack. Anything that Andreessen Horowitz gets their fingers on will be perverted into a right wing shit fest. Andreessen is high up there on the list of most disgusting bloated tech egos and right wing amplifiers.

Predictably a willing lackey has appeared

The oil and gas industry is the original owner of the Republican party since 1980. They waited for a long time to finally get an electorate dumb enough to give them absolute power. But they got there and now they will stop at nothing.

Opinion | How to lose the 21st century, in three easy steps Trump is throwing away what could have been the next great American century.

Probably should have included "destroy investment in promising new technologies" in this guide for Losing the 21st Century in 3 Easy Steps www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

In the past we sometimes thought "all jobs should be like ours". But in the board rooms and VC offices and on Wall St there were always people thinking "we need to make these jobs like all others".

There is a pervasive fear now throughout the industry. Keep your head down and grind on. Yes the pay is still good but you could always be the next on the chopping block.

This is something the tech bosses and many shareholders have dreamt of feverishly. To put these pesky uppity employees on notice. One wrong word and you're next.
Gone are the days of company culture, career opportunities and perks. The peasants have been cowed and been put back in their place.

In my life I have never seen a stock market this strange. Absolutely no bad news seem to matter. But every earnings announcement that's not below expectations leads to another rally. Nobody cares about rhyme or reason. It's like people are desperate to keep the party going

It is worth noting that the key economists / analysts have been correct (so far) on the impact of policy.

GDP slowdown (but not recession - yet).
Inflation picking up (and more to come).
International tourism down, especially in Summer.
Sluggish hiring.

All were predicted.

A few observations on Trump's trade war:
1. There is no justification for Trump's trade aggression.
The cause of the US current account deficit is its excessive budget deficit of about 6.5% of GDP a year, leading to a public debt of currently 124% of GDP properly counted. /1

New capitalism III: Capital Why is capital so concentrated and why so few have it?

While capitalism rules alone, 85% of the (adult) people in the world have no income from property.
New capitalism III: Capital
Why is capital so concentrated and why so few have it?
branko2f7.substack.com/p/the-new-ca...