Jared Bernstein

...corp power in sectors with inadequate competition and thereby excessive pricing power.
Entrenched forces will fight like hell to preserve rents at each step, but this is what the people want and need.
Oh, of course, no own goal kicks, such as sweeping tariffs. They've gotta go.

From 30k feet up, the affordability agenda is a three-legged stool:
1) Take down regs whose cost>benefits to make it cheaper & faster to build in the US.
2) Direct subsidies to lower-inc HHs in key goods/servs where markets fail to meet affordable needs, such as child care and housing.
3) Reduce...

Can’t do it. There’s just no substitute. We could get some useful info for sure, but BLS and rest of government stat infrastructure irreplaceable. For one, they make such info a public good. Who wants to pay for the unemployment rate? (I mean, I would, but u know what I mean.)

I am. The BLS is staffed w high integrity staff who are 100% committed to accuracy and best practices. But yes—very worried about this.

When they were little, I also used to make breakfast for the kids on jobs day. I’d ask them to predict payrolls and u rate. They did no better or worse than the pros.

Was just half-listening to Powell presser and thought I heard him implicitly disagree w Waller re labor-market assessment. Gov W says it’s weak: Chair P says it’s solid. Key difference prob where you see labor supply. P sees it slowing at similar rate to labor demand (see u rate).

Very interested in what Nick, one of the nation's premier Fed reporters, with deep historical knowledge, has to say about recent Fed...um..."developments."

Everybody's Talking About Affordability Policy. But How's That Supposed to Work? Here's a framework on which to build out the policies and the big-tent politics.

Here's the great @nealemahoney.bsky.social and I on a framework for thinking about affordability policy.
econjared.substack.com/p/everybodys...

...wrong. So, on balance, esp with tariff passthru taking shape, I'd hold in July meeting.
I'm sure some will add reason 3': curry favor with Trump and nudge out a Kevin. Maybe, and the voltage is way up on this. But he also may just be calling it like he sees it.

...on this. We're still driving through the fog so have to go slow. Tariff price effects starting to show & more coming. And Trump's dragging out "negotiations" just thickens the fog.
On 3, unrevised data don't show stall speed, & revisions-based arguments often turn out...

is expected to remain soft for the rest of 2025"
3) labor market weaker than it looks: "once we account for expected data revisions, private-sector payroll growth is near stall speed"
All fair points, but I'd push back on 1 & 3 (agree on 2).
On 1, maybe right but too soon to tell. Agree w Powell...

Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook Thank you, John, and thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. My purpose this evening is to explain why I believe that the Federal Open Market Comm

Fed gov Waller makes a three-part argument for cutting rates at July meeting:
1) tariffs 1-time hit to inflation (raises price level, not growth rate)
2) economy's kinda weak: "Real (GDP) growth was likely around 1% in the first half of this year and...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Thrilled to do this interview with @jaredb-econ.bsky.social for @contrariannews.org about what the history of capitalism can teach us today. Smith, Marx/Engels, Polanyi, Keynes, Kalecki, Sweezy, Friedman--we packed a lot in!

Very excited to reunite with CEAs former chief econ. Definitely be getting into the new CPI report; I got issues with the inflation outlook (based in part on Ernie's graphics from this AM): econjared.substack.com/p/data_note-...

Trump and the markets this week:
Trump: "Trade war forever!"
Markets: "He's bluffing." [TACO rally]
Trump: "Markets onboard w forever trade war!"

New Canada tariff threat spooking markets today, so maybe this loop will break. But just sayin'...

yeah...um...nope

The most binding changes to Medicaid won't occur until at least December of next year, after the midterms. Politics has a short memory, but we don't. 

Jared Bernstein and Elena Patel on the long-term impacts of the BBB.

Hard yes to that.

Let’s do Lunch! 07/08 A recording from Let's Do Lunch LIVE 07/08

I've always said "if you really understand something, you can explain it to anyone." That came to mind listening to renowned tax economist Elena Patel (former CEA, now TPC) break down the tax policies in the big, bad budget bill on Let's Do Lunch yesterday:
contrarian.substack.com/p/lets-do-lu...

open.substack.com/pub/econjare...

You’re up early!

The devolution of American fiscal policy in one annotated graph, told through the history of our publicly-held debt/GDP, including the impact of Trump and the R's budget bill.

Thnx to Greg for giving me a chance to hold forth. We can, should, & do go into many weeds on these policies, but the big pic couldn't be clearer: after running on helping the working class, the Trump admin is attacking them, making them worse off and raising the costs they face.

Let’s Do Lunch! 06/17 A recording from Let's Do Lunch! 06/17

Though I know it's late in the game for me, I want to be @bbkogan.bsky.social when I grow up. PLS listen to him answering budget questions today on Let's Do Lunch (Tues@noon ET) at the Contrarian. He encapsulates the perfect combination of heart and head.
contrarian.substack.com/p/lets-do-lu...

Data_Note: The Data Are Confusing, But We Can Still Get A Decent Bead on Where We Are Where we're headed...now that's a taller order.

No question, these are confusing econ times. But I still think one can pull an intelligible signal from the dataflow, especially re inflation and the labor market.
econjared.substack.com/p/data_note-...

Who wins/who loses from tax changes in the budget is an important question. But a more important question is who wins/loses from the full tax agenda, including tariffs, a highly regressive tax. Here’s the answer from the Budget Lab. Answer: **everyone** except the wealthy.

One more thing: While working on this, I read Bob Greenstein's masterful, sweeping history for the Hamilton Project of anti-poverty programs evolution since the 1970s. Absolute must-read, with important forward guidance as well.
www.hamiltonproject.org/wp-content/u...

The Conservative Argument Against Medicaid Is That It Has Grown With no regard for what it does.

...documenting what the program actually does for people, families, state budgets, and more. Today, we posted a longer version. To us, the Cogan oped is a revealing take on how, if you ignore evidence, you can justify these proposed cuts.
econjared.substack.com/p/the-conser...

Opinion | What if Medicaid Hadn’t Grown in the U.S.? ‘Mr. Cogan seems to think that simply by pointing out that more people are receiving benefits, it’s obvious that they must be cut.’

Yesterday, Hannah Katch and I had this letter to the ed in the WSJ, critiquing an oped by John Cogan arguing that Mcaid must be cut because it has grown. That's it. Zero reference to decades of quality research, much by folks up here...
www.wsj.com/opinion/what...

There are a lot of numbers out there on the big, bad budget bill Here are a few important ones.

Good folks are generating a lot a smart analyses and numbers re the big, bad budget bill. Here's a collection of some I find particularly compelling, along with a highly relevant observation about the false promise of trickledown from...*1516.*
econjared.substack.com/p/there-are-...