Jared Bernstein

YouTube video by Taylor Swift Taylor Swift - The Fate of Ophelia (Visualizer)

I'm way outta my lane here, and playing with very hot fire. No intention to throw any shade, just wondering if others hear it. The hook on Taylor Swift's new single reminded of that from this older Demi Levato tune.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=svcb...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zfz...

Just so you know, if you hear a collective wail of pain, angst, and withdrawal from data nerds the world over at 8:30am ET this morning, here's why.

Neither the BLS establishment survey nor the ADP pick up self-employment. They're both payroll surveys of companies. The BLS Household survey does report self-emp.

BUT it's the only damn game in town right now and it's down (pvt sector only, of course, 3 outta the last 4 months. What's the signal here in your opinions?? My take: job creation very low; wouldn't over-torque on the ADP losses, but they do support low-hire view.

Paging @jedkolko.bsky.social @econberger.bsky.social @marthagimbel.bsky.social @ernietedeschi.bsky.social @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social @markzandi.bsky.social and all others who can help here.
I know we've always downplayed ADP, for good reasons. It's a different beast in many ways than BLS estab...

A Three-Legged Affordability Agenda! Just out from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, by yours truly and the great Neale Mahoney.

New from @nealemahoney.bsky.social and me: "Building an affordable economy: A three-legged stool strategy." Everybody's talking affordability, as they should be! Here's our framework & principles:
siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
Substack summary: econjared.substack.com/p/a-three-le...

Not what I'd spend my time on right now, policy-wise, but seems fine for SEC to give public companies a choice of reporting earnings quarterly or semi-annually, as in the UK.

Job creation weaker, sure, but unemp rate not affected by this revision so not obvious that the labor market was "weaker" than we thought, as in more slack. Breakeven probably lower than we thought, so could have fewer jobs and not much unemp rate rise.

A Contrast in Numbers: The White House Forecast vs. BLS The White House grows out of its deficit problem by way of a fantasy forecast. And then tells us it's BLS that's cooking the numbers.

I did not fully appreciate how the BLS's staff efforts to “publish reliable data” could become an act of bravery in the struggle to preserve democracy. But that’s exactly what it is.
econjared.substack.com/p/a-contrast...

As a former CEA chair, keeping that job* while being a Fed gov is like having the same guy be your AA sponsor and your bartender.

*This is the case even w "leave of absence," whatever that means.

Let’s Do Lunch! 09/02 A recording from Jared Bernstein's Let's Do Lunch 09/02

Fun fact: Wally Adeyemo is just great to listen to on matters econ. Clear, concise, compelling, with years of experience to back it all up. Here he is on the latest episode of "Let's Do Lunch!"
contrarian.substack.com/p/lets-do-lu...

This from @jaredb-econ.bsky.social

"Labor Day message. History is clear that capitalism remains a highly effective system of generating growth and technological gains. But without an organized and aptly sized political counterforce, it will concentrate wealth and power..."

1/2

I’m in exit aisle, dude!

Trying to take a few minutes away from the news of the day but fate had other ideas.

Listen to Aaron (and not just re listening to Jared)!

All here: www.marketwatch.com/story/bls-no...

I was referring AEI, not Trump's nominee.

...corp power in sectors with inadequate competition and thereby excessive pricing power.
Entrenched forces will fight like hell to preserve rents at each step, but this is what the people want and need.
Oh, of course, no own goal kicks, such as sweeping tariffs. They've gotta go.

From 30k feet up, the affordability agenda is a three-legged stool:
1) Take down regs whose cost>benefits to make it cheaper & faster to build in the US.
2) Direct subsidies to lower-inc HHs in key goods/servs where markets fail to meet affordable needs, such as child care and housing.
3) Reduce...

Can’t do it. There’s just no substitute. We could get some useful info for sure, but BLS and rest of government stat infrastructure irreplaceable. For one, they make such info a public good. Who wants to pay for the unemployment rate? (I mean, I would, but u know what I mean.)

I am. The BLS is staffed w high integrity staff who are 100% committed to accuracy and best practices. But yes—very worried about this.

When they were little, I also used to make breakfast for the kids on jobs day. I’d ask them to predict payrolls and u rate. They did no better or worse than the pros.

Was just half-listening to Powell presser and thought I heard him implicitly disagree w Waller re labor-market assessment. Gov W says it’s weak: Chair P says it’s solid. Key difference prob where you see labor supply. P sees it slowing at similar rate to labor demand (see u rate).

Very interested in what Nick, one of the nation's premier Fed reporters, with deep historical knowledge, has to say about recent Fed...um..."developments."

Everybody's Talking About Affordability Policy. But How's That Supposed to Work? Here's a framework on which to build out the policies and the big-tent politics.

Here's the great @nealemahoney.bsky.social and I on a framework for thinking about affordability policy.
econjared.substack.com/p/everybodys...

...wrong. So, on balance, esp with tariff passthru taking shape, I'd hold in July meeting.
I'm sure some will add reason 3': curry favor with Trump and nudge out a Kevin. Maybe, and the voltage is way up on this. But he also may just be calling it like he sees it.

...on this. We're still driving through the fog so have to go slow. Tariff price effects starting to show & more coming. And Trump's dragging out "negotiations" just thickens the fog.
On 3, unrevised data don't show stall speed, & revisions-based arguments often turn out...

is expected to remain soft for the rest of 2025"
3) labor market weaker than it looks: "once we account for expected data revisions, private-sector payroll growth is near stall speed"
All fair points, but I'd push back on 1 & 3 (agree on 2).
On 1, maybe right but too soon to tell. Agree w Powell...

Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook Thank you, John, and thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. My purpose this evening is to explain why I believe that the Federal Open Market Comm

Fed gov Waller makes a three-part argument for cutting rates at July meeting:
1) tariffs 1-time hit to inflation (raises price level, not growth rate)
2) economy's kinda weak: "Real (GDP) growth was likely around 1% in the first half of this year and...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Thrilled to do this interview with @jaredb-econ.bsky.social for @contrariannews.org about what the history of capitalism can teach us today. Smith, Marx/Engels, Polanyi, Keynes, Kalecki, Sweezy, Friedman--we packed a lot in!