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Michael Santoli

@michaelsantoli.bsky.social

CNBC talking head. Markets, mostly. Maybe some baseball and movies.

12,812 Followers  |  178 Following  |  675 Posts  |  Joined: 13.11.2024  |  2.1541

Latest posts by michaelsantoli.bsky.social on Bluesky

There was never the slightest chance MSFT was going to be a "bust." I started this whole thing by saying essentially no one who owned AMZN pre-crash would've benefited from the comeback. Relax.

11.12.2025 15:52 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Amazon, with some Microsoft thrown in, owned from before the bubble peak, paid for all the busts. But it took a while.

11.12.2025 15:34 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Wonder who held it from 1999 through the 90% drop into the 2001 low and subsequent 77,000% run since then, aside from Bill Miller, Ryan Jacob and people who forgot they owned it. I guess it probably would have stayed in the QQQ continuously from 1999 on.

11.12.2025 15:09 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Stocks rise above their record closing high, set Oct. 28, the day before the prior Fed meeting.

The tension release pushes market-implied volatiltiy down to levels likewise seen in late October.

This is how it goes when the market clenches up for a "hawkish cut" that turns out not so hawkish...

10.12.2025 20:16 β€” πŸ‘ 16    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

Ready access to Boog's BBQ beyond the right field wall at Camden sealed the deal.

10.12.2025 18:48 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

They basically said New Haven down was Yankees, so yes pretty much.

10.12.2025 17:37 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Retirees, and no home teams in those states.

10.12.2025 17:37 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The only real surprise here is that Connecticut tilts more Red Sox than Yankees. I used to know a Hartford Courant editor who said, based on their research, the state was split up the middle between those two. Then again that was many years before the curse was broken.

10.12.2025 17:28 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Sure. I'm not generally all that worried either. But (as a parent of two college students) I also don't think college professors are exagerrating the way many students lack the focus to read a book. And there are implications of that in terms of depth of knowledge, etc.

10.12.2025 16:54 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I'm open to the idea that young people years ago said they read more than they did because they felt they were "supposed to." But nothing in general suggests people today are more honest with pollsters than they were in the past.

10.12.2025 16:18 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

That's the reverse of what I said. The argument in the original post is that people years ago read less than they claimed they did, which would mean they were lying more back then, not now.

10.12.2025 15:12 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

So you think it's implausible that a third of your classmates in high school read even a comic book a few times a week, and that people used to lie on surveys more then than they do now?

10.12.2025 14:45 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Or run with the devil

10.12.2025 03:22 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Santoli's Tuesday market wrap-up: Stocks remain on hold ahead of Fed meeting with a few interesting sector rotations Stocks are largely on hold ahead of the Federal Reserve decision just below the old record highs, but there are some interesting wrinkles in sector rotations.

Santoli's Tuesday market wrap-up: Stocks remain on hold ahead of Fed meeting with a few interesting sector rotations

09.12.2025 21:36 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Noted on the air just now that the market has not quite completed a "V" bottom from the November pullback, the S&P 500 going sideways the past few days and creating more of a Van Halen logo pattern...

09.12.2025 21:13 β€” πŸ‘ 56    πŸ” 6    πŸ’¬ 10    πŸ“Œ 1
Preview
S&P 500 quietly rebounds to near a new record. Where to next after a quick round trip? A two-week, 5% rebound has just about returned the S&P 500 to its former all-time high set at the end of October.

The marketβ€˜s back in gear after a November wobble, last week’s gentle rise nearly completing its rebound. The tape is posiitoned for a Fed rate cut into a reaccelerating economy, with banks, transports, retailers leading.

Heathy shift or head fake? Is the Street too bullish on β€˜26?

Weekend column.

07.12.2025 13:25 β€” πŸ‘ 18    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

Yeah typos suck, thanks for pointing that one out

06.12.2025 16:20 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

(The column is free to read on CNBC Pro with email signup.)

06.12.2025 15:17 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
S&P 500 quietly rebounds to near a new record. Where to next after a quick round trip? A two-week, 5% rebound has just about returned the S&P 500 to its former all-time high set at the end of October.

There are quiet weeks on Wall Street but not meangless ones.

The S&P 500's rebound rally slowed, yet below the surface the market is emphatically executing an "early cycle" playbook to posiiton for a peppier economy and looser Fed.

Do investors have it right this time?

New column.

06.12.2025 15:16 β€” πŸ‘ 100    πŸ” 9    πŸ’¬ 12    πŸ“Œ 3

Not really, it says bond prices are up, which means their yields (rates) are down. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has fallen from 4.54% to 4.14% this year. The chart he shows is the total return, a combination of the yield income and the price appreciation.

05.12.2025 22:48 β€” πŸ‘ 24    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

2020, the year everyone was in a great mood because Treasuries rallied.

05.12.2025 22:27 β€” πŸ‘ 86    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

I, too, prefer Dapper Dan pomade to Fop.

05.12.2025 13:40 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

A bank, to the extent SOFI is a bank, should probably grab the opportunity to sell equity at 4x book value when it is presented.

04.12.2025 21:31 β€” πŸ‘ 27    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 2

Halftime real feel temp will be 2 degrees at Lambeau for Bears-Packers on Sunday.

04.12.2025 19:22 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Yes, though he's focused on a combined NFLX/WBD as dominant bidder for original content. Most of the YouTube content, even movies/TV shows, is produced elsewhere.

04.12.2025 18:15 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

WAR takes account of his pitching.

Ultimately, this is "Would Mighty Mouse or Superman win in a fight?"

04.12.2025 15:41 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Look, Ohtani is obviously the more impressive athlete. I'd take him first in a draft today.

But Bo Jackson was the best athlete in MLB frm 1986-'94. yet I'd have preferred doughy Tony Gwynn on my team.

04.12.2025 15:35 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Guys we have WAR to settle such arguments these days.

04.12.2025 15:30 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Trust me it's a waste of your time to approach the markets this way.

04.12.2025 14:31 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Absurd bagholder theories about how market makers are screwing you

04.12.2025 14:29 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

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