Michael Santoli

Lots of cringy stuff in there but a classic

"My business is videogame arcades, laundry and cigarette machines and trucking. I dabble a little bit in personal loans and politics."

definitely

The market is sort of taking this as "Who knows if it will work but now we know where their pain threshold is..."

The broad selloff has broken the market's "protection through rotation" routine, the S&P 500 cracks the bottom of the YTD range.

Old trader voodoo says breaking the December low early the next year is a bad omen; we just did.

Still only 4% off a record high, getting as oversold as at recent lows.

Mike Santoli: Geopolitical jolt comes at a fragile time for the stock market The markets have already been caught in an uneasy equilibrium, with a clean bullish consensus undergoing persistent scrutiny, writes Mike Santoli.

History says regional military conflicts don't end bull markets. Flight from risk tends to be brief if the economy/market isn't already in a downturn.

Still, markets have been in an uneasy equilibrium: Early-cycle reflation hopes, late-cycle credit fissures, existential AI concerns.

New column.

Right because the original saying is "The informant in the coalmine."

The warning comes when the canary dies, not when it sings

Here we go, Nvidia's stock decline creates this "kiss chart," its valuation coming into parity with the broad market.

Ultimately, valuation is just a gauge of collective sentiment about an asset's prospects, the noise around the sustainability of the AI capex boom costing NVDA its premium for now.

The pollsters at Quinnipiac doing the "long-time fan, first-time caller" thing on Pennsylvania NFL quarterbacks and coaches.

Should prompt nothing but sane, normal discourse...

Samsung and SK Hynix are now 50% of the KOSPI, it's more disengaged from metals/macro.

I hate that one too. Who decides where the sky starts, maybe it's 150 feet off the ground?

People have been talking about it constantly for months

Not a big part of the overall NVDA story

Yes, NVDA shares are starting to look inexpensive vs. current earnings and reliably projected profits over the next year. The market is wary that the company might be "over-earning" and present demand trends can't be extrapolated.

Similar to how Apple traded through the first iPhone mega-cycle...

No I’m not saying NVDA will or should get that cheap. The overall market multiple was only 13x in 2012 (vs. 22x now) when AAPL got to 10x, and consumer hardware cycles face a higher burden of proof. Still…

Yes, NVDA shares are starting to look inexpensive vs. current earnings and reliably projected profits over the next year. The market is wary that the company might be "over-earning" and present demand trends can't be extrapolated.

Similar to how Apple traded through the first iPhone mega-cycle...

Yes, NVDA shares are starting to look inexpensive vs. current earnings and reliably projected profits over the next year. The market is wary that the company might be "over-earning" and present demand trends can't be extrapolated.

Similar to how Apple traded through the first iPhone mega-cycle...

Another nasty mechanical whipsaw day in the market, momentum getting upended in both directions.

The S&P 500 worst performers year-to-date are, on average up big. Vice versa with the YTD leaders....

Enough, you obviously are forcing an entrenched view.

"if"

"ish"

I'm just saying "Finally" is the wrong response to me.

I've been on this publicly for more than a decade.

(Watch here for future Pedant's Corner features on commonly misdeployed phrases, including "negative feedback loop," "flywheel" and"not on my bingo card...")

Nvidia results always trigger a high alert day for Law of Large Numbers usage violations.

LoLN doesn't describe the difficulty of an already huge value to continue growing quickly.

Yes, "everyone" uses it in this way. Yes, Investopedia capitulated and blessed this misuse. Doesn't make it right.

He hasn’t liked anything on TV since ”Bounty Law” was canceled.

One of my go-to callouts. About as current as my pop-culture references get.

Perhaps you gotta believe that. The stock has been consolidating/compressing its valuation for five months. I try to be open-minded about what's to come.

Nvidia heading into its earnings report carving out a classic Pink pattern: "Not broken just bent, just give me a reason..."