Davender

What if startup success isn't about moving faster, but building smarter? Startups don't die from lack of product-market fit. They die from fragility: one shock can end everything. Reserve some resources to strengthen your core. Survivors don't grow fastest. They grow strongest.
#momentumscaling

Just signed off from my writing group check-in and learned two concepts:

- Writers are “porous” = highly receptive to our environment, where we draw our inspiration;
- “being in limerence with my first draft” = obsessed / thinking about it morning, noon and night… yes this is me!

#booksky #writing

Excerpt: Reality Is Unpredictable How many unforeseen events have blindsided you that never appeared in your original projections?

This week's excerpt from my book draft explores the unpredictable nature of reality and how it interferes with your sparkling pitch deck.

On my Substack: coachdavender.substack.com/p/excerpt-re...

#momentumscaling #uncertainty #risk #strategy

Thot: The Power of Strategic Imbalance Are you dancing with the tension between risk, reward, and effort, or getting trapped by it?

Are you dancing with the tension between risk, reward, and effort, or getting trapped by it?

open.substack.com/pub/coachdav...

The High Price of Sunk Costs If you keep chasing a promise that never arrives, at what point does persistence become stubbornness?

A deeper dive into the difficult topic of sunk costs. This Substack is also a sneak peek into my book draft.
On my Substack: coachdavender.substack.com/p/the-high-p...

Sunk costs compound quickly — be clear-eyed and cut your losses before they cut your momentum. @coachdavender #momentumscaling

When projects aren't creating results, persistence can become stubbornness. Sunk costs multiply—adding interest, lost time, missed opportunities. Investors only care what you do next, not what you spent. Ask 'Is this still worth it?' not 'How much have I spent?' Be your own most demanding investor.

"Goodbye to the age of consumer websites and mobile apps. A.I. has ushered in an era of what insiders in the (U.S.) nation’s innovation capital call 'hard tech'”
NYTimes (Gift Link): www.nytimes.com/2025/08/04/t...

Successful entrepreneurs are arbitrage hunters—they spot market inefficiencies others ignore. Instead of chasing fancy tech, they find real pain points: manual processes, outdated spreadsheets, clunky software. Build solutions for actual problems, not tech for tech's sake. #momentumscaling

Real scaling looks like a staircase, not a hockey stick. Growth happens in 3 horizons: Credibility ($0-3M), Capability ($5-10M), Cashflow ($20M+). Each takes 3-4 years with preparation, growth, and consolidation phases. Ditch the tired unicorn-or-bust narrative. Scale at a disciplined, human pace.

The Invalidation Horizon What happens when what you don’t know about what you don’t know catches up with you?

What happens when what you don’t know about what you don’t know catches up with you?
This is the “Invalidation Horizon” -- the moment when what was true yesterday is no longer true today.
On my Substack: coachdavender.substack.com/p/the-invali...
#strategy #validation #uncertainty #momentumscaling

Are Canadian founders getting a raw deal? | BetaKit Plus: The pressure to adopt AI has created a “Wild West” for corporate cybersecurity.

Nine out of ten startups are *expected* to fail, with the financial cost falling most heavily on the founders themselves.
betakit.com/are-canadian...

Thot: Don't overthink it It isn't H.A.R.D.

Analysis paralysis kills more ventures than bad decisions. Use the H.A.R.D. (hypotheses-assumptions-risks-dependencies) framework to control your decision process, readiness for execution, and response speed, and feel more empowered in the process.
coachdavender.substack.com/p/thot-dont-...

Forget VUCA: Why BANI Is The New Framework For Today's World Explore why VUCA is outdated and how BANI (Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear, Incomprehensible) offers a more accurate lens for understanding today’s unpredictable world.

Even uncertainty is evolving.
Exit VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous).
Enter BANI = Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear and Incomprehensible.
More than ever, the ability to manage uncertainty is a vital leadership skill.
www.forbes.com/sites/kevink...

Startup-corporate partnerships fail more from unmet expectations than bad tech. Success needs: internal champions with real authority, clear decision timelines, risk-appropriate projects, and starting small to build trust before scaling.
coachdavender.substack.com/p/thot-succe...

Thot: To Hire Or Not How can you hire with confidence?

Every early hire is massive opportunity + existential risk. Ask: Do you need capability or capacity? Can they pay for themselves in 60-90 days? Build your hiring playbook before pressure hits. Your first hires define your DNA.

Ebook cover of Ultimatum by Richard Rohmer

What I'm reading on this 4th of July... 🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦
#notthe51ststate

Yes, AI Models Can Get Worse over Time More training and more data can have unintended consequences for machine-learning models such as GPT-4

When you integrate AI into your product, be aware that you are creating a “single point of failure” dependency. What is your backup if the model you choose is updated to the point where it is no longer reliable, especially where you have highly tuned the model for a specific purpose?

Thot: Invest in your Leadership Capital How healthy is your ability to execute?

Ventures don't fail due to lack of ideas or funding—they fail because of weak Leadership Capital. To scale, focus on building the foundation, systems, and skills to execute. It’s your most controllable lever because no one but yourself can provide it.

From SaaS to COGSware: Why the AI cognition economy changes everything about software margins Back at the turn of the century, when I was a product manager at Lucent Technologies building xDSL models (does anyone remember what those were?), my favorite part of the job was sitting at the inters...

The economics of software deployment and scaling change fundamentally with AI, to the extent that you need to rethink your pricing strategy, or you risk scaling yourself to bankruptcy.

Thanks @chevan.info

chevan.substack.com/p/from-saas-...

Too many founders mistake traction for momentum. Traction proves people want what you’re building. Momentum is your ability to deliver it reliably at scale. Build systems where today’s growth makes tomorrow’s growth easier. 🚀
#momentumscaling

Don't compete with giants—find the Edges they ignore. Incumbents have resources & distribution, but startups have agility. Look for underserved niches too small for big players to care about. Own the Edge—that's where the future gets made. 📈

A SWOT analysis can create false confidence by listing predictable threats or opportunities. However, predictions hold little value in an unpredictable world. Analysis only provides the illusion of control. The most valuable opportunities lie beyond what you think you know.
#momentumscaling

What decision are you putting off? Analysis paralysis kills more ventures than bad decisions. Understand uncertainty by mapping your hypotheses, assumptions, risks, and dependencies. Control only those things that you can. Build confidence through action, not perfection. #momentumscaling #leadership

The Bomber Mafia: A Dream, a Temptation, and the Longest Night of the Second World War The Bomber Mafia: A Dream, a Temptation, and the Longest Night of the Second World War: Gladwell, Malcolm: 9780316296618: Books - Amazon.ca

What I'm reading just as I hear that today (21 Jun) could be a "fateful" day...
www.amazon.ca/Bomber-Mafia...

By putting AI into everything, Google wants to make it invisible Its annual I/O showcase demonstrates that the frontier is no longer about AI models’ capabilities. It’s about turning them into slick products.

Google & Microsoft are missing the mark with their aggressive #AI integration. They second-guess my workflow, inserting AI where unwanted, like a modern Clippy. Don't push email rewrites or doc summaries. Give me smarter search & a simple AI toggle instead. www.technologyreview.com/2025/05/21/1...

I would assume Annual is cheaper than Monthly... but do they think that I'm too lazy to do simple arithmetic? (No, I did not resubscribe) #darkpatterns

Yeah, right. Walmart and Home Depot are going to "eat the tariffs." Just watch how they put price pressure on their suppliers. It’ll be the little guy who ends up with the bill. #uspoli #tariff

When high-profile people proudly defy laws, the trust between us breaks down a bit more.

Is AI the end or the future of leadership? How will leadership evolve as AI expands its influence into every aspect of our life?

We stand at a fascinating crossroads. As AI increasingly permeates our workplaces and daily lives, a critical question arises: Is AI the end of leadership as we know it, or is it the beginning of something new?
My essay on Substack: coachdavender.substack.com/p/is-ai-the-...

SMART goals create an illusion of control in an unpredictable world. What you discover while executing matters more than hitting arbitrary targets.
Flexible direction beats fixed targets when uncertainty is the only thing that is certain.