Edward Walker

Thread. NB: “…UKR has no “simple” or “easy” choice of giving up Donbas to end the war. RU will fight for as long as it is physically and economically able. And amid this farce staged to fool no one but Donald Trump -- RU is openly preparing for a spring–summer campaign.” Yup. And yup again.

The EU's 20th sanctions package bans Western oil tankers from transporting Russian oil. In the Baltic, such ships are now only 15% of capacity, so the 20th package - like previous ones - dodges the hard stuff. It's the shadow fleet that must be shut down...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/das-recht-...

The failure to prevent attacks doesn’t negate the fact that some FSB departments are highly capable (e.g., ORU, the Operative-Search Department). Their work, plus pervasive surveillance and bilateral cooperation with foreign states, lets Russia track down suspects (and get them).

1/ The Russian authorities have published details of three people accused of Friday's shooting of Lt Gen Vladimir Alekseyev. Two men have been arrested, one in the UAE, while a woman is said to have escaped to Ukraine, which is blamed for the attack. ⬇️
bsky.app/profile/wart...

The Starlink development is looking more and more like a big problem for the RU military.

Yup. An absurd figure, but the Trump Big Lie goes together with the Big Hook (as in, Trump is dumb enough to believe it).

Yup. And applies to all domains, and for EUR as well.

Over the past year, Trump has repeatedly said that India committed to stopping purchases of Russian crude, but available data showed that the imports have continued.

Russia’s consolidated budget deficit reached almost 4% of GDP in 2025 As Russian regions shoulder more war costs and social security funds are depleted, the consolidated budget balance has deteriorated far more than expected.

Russia's fiscal situation is worse than expected: The consolidated budget had a deficit of nearly 4% of GDP in 2025. Regions are under pressure from increasing war costs. Social funds were forced to draw down their reserves after federal transfers were cut. Read: open.substack.com/pub/janisklu...

As Russia continues its strikes, France is strengthening its energy support to bolster Ukraine’s resilience. 30 of the planned 150 generators have already been delivered to Kyiv.

❗️Due to the enemy attack, we have significant damage to energy facilities, and this has affected the energy situation practically throughout the entire country: massive power outages. — Zelenskyy

There’s so much wrong w this but NB the “Dmitriev package” wld, if agreed to, almost certainly prove a nothing burger economically for the US (see eg the Trump UKR mineral and Venezuela oil deals). What wld matter is lifting sanctions, overwhelmingly benefiting RU, esp re continuing or resuming war.

Incredible sloppiness by military counterintelligence (DVKR), by far the largest FSB department. One would have expected them to scale up protection for top military brass; instead, they spend their resources spying on the military.

The other factor is that if the Kremlin wants to precipitate a crisis with EUR (presumably in the hopes that it can intimidate EUR into stopping mil asst, thereby getting the vassal gov in Kyiv that has been its primary war objective), it will assume best to do it while Trump is in office.

EC President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU’s 20th sanctions package against Russia targets energy, finance, and trade. Measures include a ban on maritime services for transporting Russian crude oil, sanctions on 43 more shadow fleet vessels, and restrictions on banks and crypto platforms. #EU

What is the German government currently doing to support and secure Ukraine's energy, water and heating supply? What funds have been pledged, and what equipment has been (publicly) verified by me as having arrived in #Ukraine?

Russian space vehicles are suspected of conducting signals intelligence operations against key European satellites, the Financial Times reported, citing European security officials.

This is a popular view in Western Europe, but it gets the logic upside down. The relevant question is whether Russia has the drone technology to close the Baltic Sea for us.

The situation in Myrnohrad has significantly worsened over the past week, with fighting ongoing in the northern part of the city, the 7th Air Assault Corps said. Russian forces are bringing heavy equipment, including artillery, into central areas, while assault groups are active in the east #Ukraine

New START ended in a very Trump way:

1. Expiry deadline passed with nothing from the White House, everyone assumed it was over.

2. Anonymous sources claiming that Kushner and Witkoff were cooking up a stopgap "handshake" deal in Abu Dhabi.

3. Trump Truth Social post confirming(?) it's over.

❗️In Moscow, an assassination attempt was carried out on Lieutenant General of the 🇷🇺Russian Armed Forces Vladimir Alekseev. An unknown person shot him several times in the back and fled. The general was hospitalized with gunshot wounds.

— precisely the sort of breakthroughs that UAS concentration can slow, and artillery fire backed by remotely deployed mines can neutralize.” FIN

thereby forcing NATO forces into the RU reconnaissance-strike complex. Unlike UKR, which despite its limitations has built a military that can fight a grinding attrition conflict, NATO forces are designed for rapid armored breakthroughs… 2/x

Interesting/informative (and worrisome). NB: “As Moscow plans for a confrontation with EUR NATO, its ability to integrate UAS into its force more effectively than EUR armies may well prove decisive. This is particularly true if RU can establish a defensive line after an initial fait accompli… 1/x

Unsurprisingly Lavrov claims hit on LG Alexeev was Kyiv's bid to torpedo talks (we are all assuming it was Kyiv, I presume), but more interesting is separate line emerging in RU social media blaming a dissident, anti-peace cabal in Kyiv (esp. SBU) - implicitly exonerates Zelensky!

The United States and Russia are nearing a deal to extend the New START nuclear arms control treaty that expires Thursday, Axios sources said. Talks were held in Abu Dhabi, but no agreement is confirmed and the plan still needs approval by both presidents. US envoys Witkoff and Kushner took part.

Good. Better jaw jaw than war war when it comes to nukes. And in general military-military contacts good for mitigating risk of escalation/unintended consequences. Hopefully at any rate.

❗️Ukraine and Poland have agreed to use SAFE funds for joint strengthening of defense capabilities and economic development, — Tusk.

The Polish Prime Minister emphasized that part of the funding can be directed toward joint production of technologies and defense products in Ukraine and Poland.

More on this. NB: “As the Russian Ministry of Defence does not provide satellite Internet to the troops, the cost of buying inferior replacements for Starlink will almost certainly fall on the soldiers themselves, who will need to pay inflated prices for a much worse alternative.”

In January, the Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted a series of successful strikes on the Russian Kapustin Yar missile test range with FP-5 Flamingo missiles.

Several buildings were damaged, one hangar was severely hit, and part of the personnel was evacuated.