Eliza Forsythe

Am Econ Assn speaks out about firing the #BLS Commish.

"It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as [better] data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor--not failure or bias."

The Friends of #BLS protest the firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer.

The rationale for firing her is without merit and undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of intelligent economic decision-making by businesses, families, and policymakers.

The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, my successor as Commissioner of Labor Statistics at BLS, sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau. For a full statement opposing this move, read:

Trump’s first BLS Commissioner, Bill Beach, calls today’s firing groundless and dangerous.
www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...

I was just informed that our Country’s “Jobs Numbers” are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory. This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000. These were Records — No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes. McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. The Economy is BOOMING under “TRUMP” despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting “Kamala” elected – How did that work out? Jerome “Too Late” Powell should also be put “out to pasture.” Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Unquestionably the most dangerous and corrupt attack on the independence of US economic data in American history. Trump is firing the head of the BLS, a longtime civil servant confirmed 86-8 by the Senate, simply because the job numbers came in below his expectations today

We welcome submissions for the 2025 Dissertation Award, given to the best Ph.D. dissertation on employment-related issues. The award furthers the Upjohn Institute mission to support and conduct policy-relevant research on issues related to employment, unemployment and social insurance programs.

States, unlike the federal government, cannot have deficits. The massive cost shift from the feds to states for both Medicaid and SNAP, will just lead states to either massively cut, or just abandon altogether, these programs.

@budgetlab.bsky.social tariff update through June 16, incorporating:

• Broader scope for the 50% steel & aluminum tariffs to include some steel-derivative products.

• Relaxation of Chinese export restrictions on magnets & rate minerals.

• New distributional methodology.

1/9

If you

- work on #gender inequality in the labor market
- want to finally understand what this never-ending #DiD literature is talking about
- teach recent advances in DiD

then take a look at our WP with Lukas Riedel! #EconSky @rfberlin.bsky.social
www.rfberlin.com/research/chi...

The objectives of the Friends of BLS group are to: Create a network of users of BLS data and information to facilitate the distribution of information, opinions, and ideas about BLS among users; Act as a reservoir of individuals and organizations who could participate in seminars and other educational events for the public and for public policy decision makers about the utility and overall value of BLS programs; and Support the BLS as an institution that provides critical data and tools to a wide variety of users for a wide variety of purposes.The Friends of the BLS is not sanctioned by nor does it receive any support from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is completely independent of the BLS and BLS leadership. Note: The Friends of the BLS is not sanctioned by nor does it receive any support from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is completely independent of the BLS and BLS leadership.

Last thing. BLS does amazing work to create timely, accurate info about America's working families, a huge public good.

They are there for us & we need to show up for them.

If you are a labor economist or care about workers & employment, follow & join Friends of BLS.
www.friendsofbls.org/join

It's even worse, BLS was deploying a virtual data access portal which would have expanded researcher access to BLS data. Instead, nearly all access is gone, including for research in progress.

www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06...

We're hiring a postdoc in labor economics at IAB Nuremberg! Join @ineshelmecon.bsky.social, @jnimczik.bsky.social & me on a project about gig work.

🗓️ Start: 1 Oct 25
💶 Salary ≥ €5200/month

🌱 Possibility to apply for tenure track program

Apply here until 17 June: econjobmarket.org/positions/11...

Something's up (down?) at #UNC.

The Bd of Trustees, which has authority over tenure decisions, tabled all at its March mtg & re-tabled all from the College of Arts & Sciences & the non-health professional schools (Law, Biz, etc) at its next mtg. All w/o explanation.

#AcademicSky #academicfreedom

I'm very excited to spend my sabbatical year visiting the Copenhagen Business School, beginning this July. Looking forward to connecting with folks in Copenhagen and beyond!

Educating international students is a massive export of services. They pay us money earned in a foreign nation for a product the US has, until now, had an absolute advantage in. We cannot effectively sell these services if these students can be deported, detained, and even kidnapped at random.

This is another example of how policy uncertainty is the biggest economic threat at the moment. Tariff policy is no longer credible, so it is reasonable to bet on a reversal. But, this strategy may lead to real shortages.

How Tariffs Affect Trade Deficits...

... a new paper with amazing trade economist Arnaud Costinot.

Many politicians and the general public expect tariffs to reduce imports lower imports and thus work to close a trade deficit.

Economists typically say "not so fast"...

🧵1/n

7th Annual NBER Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy Conference, Spring 2025

Do you have a PhD student who's interested in environmental and energy policy? Nominate them to attend NBER's upcoming Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy Conference in Washington, DC (airfare, ground transport and one night of hotel covered)

www.nber.org/conferences/...

ASHEcon is offering free registration for the 2025 conference to individuals impacted by recent layoffs in the federal government and at research organizations
www.cognitoforms.com/ASHEcon1/_20...

We've updated our @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff estimates in light of yesterday's announcement of a 90-day 10% "reciprocal" tariff and a 125% China tariff.
Some key takeaways...

1/7

Last May @budgetlab.bsky.social published a piece on the political risks to the US's safe harbor premium pointing out that even a relatively modest move in risk premia would be bad - and that markets weren't thinking about the fact that it was a possibility. 1/

We are hiring an education researcher to join the @capolicylab.bsky.social and @berkeleycshe.bsky.social teams. You'll work on projects using administrative data relating to California higher education. Here's more information: capolicylab.org/careers/rese...

Here's a quick update to the @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff tracker to incorporate the add'l 50% US tariffs on China & China's add'l retaliation.
• The average effective US tariff rate is now 26.8%, the highest since 1903.
• US real GDP growth is -1.1pp lower over 2025.
1/3

University of Illinois confirms some international students' visas have been revoked - IPM Newsroom A U of I spokesperson said that multiple foreign students on campus have had their visas revoked by the Trump administration but declined to share the number of students who were impacted.

This is truly devastating. It's awful we're not able to protect our students.

ipmnewsroom.org/university-o...

Please sign on to request better BLS funding for next year.
It will cost you less than a minute to help Friends show appropriators that people value our statistical infrastructure.

#econsky #data #statistics #bls #jobs #inflation #cps #cpi #unemployment #jobsday

New @budgetlab.bsky.social report about today's tariff announcement:

• The April 2nd policy alone is the equivalent of an 11.5pp increase in the effective tariff rate. When combined with other US tariffs in 2025, we're at 22 1/2%, the highest rate since 1909.
1/7

Congratulations, boss, you've done it: You're bigger than covid.

We estimate that government nondefense R&D spending accounts for 20-25% of post-war productivity growth and has returns of 140-210%!! Sabrina Howell is 100% right Re killing the goose that lays the golden egg...

EALE @eale-office.bsky.social is now on Bluesky. Let’s give it a warm welcome!
#EconSky 📉📈

We have entered the next phase of the Muslim ban