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Darren Dahly

@statsepi.bsky.social

Epidemiologist + Statistician | Clinical Research Facility - University College Cork | UCC School of Public Health | #ClinicalTrials #Epidemiology #Statistics #RStats #WBE #IDSurveillance Views mine -> https://statsepi.substack.com/

12,585 Followers  |  2,300 Following  |  5,229 Posts  |  Joined: 12.09.2023  |  2.293

Latest posts by statsepi.bsky.social on Bluesky

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No industry is perfect. But the imbalance is hard to miss. One sector must prove its products are safe & effective. The other profits by avoiding that responsibility. If we care about transparency and accountability, scrutiny shouldnโ€™t be one-sided. (Source: For The Greater Glory of Science) #EpiSky

23.11.2025 00:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 40    ๐Ÿ” 18    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

bsky.app/profile/john...

23.11.2025 02:55 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Not this again

'however, standard culture methods did not yield readily cultivable microbiota.'

22.11.2025 08:14 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 35    ๐Ÿ” 12    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

๐Ÿ˜‰

22.11.2025 21:33 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

lads i found ANOTHER Table of Impossible Summary Statistics in a "green economics" paper ๐Ÿšฉ

Can you see the problem?

22.11.2025 14:28 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 32    ๐Ÿ” 8    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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@mrjamesob.bsky.social

22.11.2025 14:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 736    ๐Ÿ” 260    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 14    ๐Ÿ“Œ 9

I've never been a fan of group work as a teacher or learner, but now I feel it's even trickier to manage as people have different interest in use of genAI to do assignments. It's a whole other thing that should in principle be negotiated, but how to manage this practically, and at what cost?

22.11.2025 13:18 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 10    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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AIโ€™s Modest Productivity Boost 3 years into widespread adoption, AI has delivered a ~0.4% productivity growth bump, putting it on pace with PC-scale lift at best (in ~1/2 the time) rather than radically reshaping the macroeconomy.

Just the blurb from this week's blog app piece penciling out the AI impact on productivity generated a robust discussion, so figured I'd make it my freebie of the week:

bobeunlimited.substack.com/publish/post...

22.11.2025 11:06 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 10    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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UCC to scrap plan for world class business school on โ‚ฌ17m city centre site It has not been officially announced yet but multiple sources confirm the ambitious CUBS development on South Terrace is all but deadย 
22.11.2025 07:26 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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The COVID inquiry conclusion that lockdown could have been avoided โ€“ and subsequent headlines โ€“ seems to have been based on a single opinionโ€ฆ

22.11.2025 09:47 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 35    ๐Ÿ” 10    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 8    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Here Today, Gone Tomorrow? Toward an Understanding of Fade-out in Early Childhood Education Programs
John A. List & Haruka Uchida
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Working Paper 33027
DOI 10.3386/w33027
Issue Date October 2024
An unsettling stylized fact is that decorated early childhood education programs improve cognitive skills in the short-term, but lose their efficacy after a few years. We implement a field experiment with two stages of randomization to explore the underpinnings of the fade-out effect. We first randomly assign preschool access to children, and then partner with the local school district to randomly assign the same children to classmates throughout elementary school. We find that the fade-out effect is critically-linked to the share of classroom peers assigned to preschool accessโ€”with enough treated peers the classic fade-out effect is muted. Our results highlight a paradoxical insight: while the fade-out effect has been viewed as a devastating critique of early childhood programs, our results highlight that fade-out is a key rationale for providing early education to all children. This is because human capital accumulation is inherently a social activity, leading early education programs to deliver their largest benefits at scale when everyone receives such programs.

Here Today, Gone Tomorrow? Toward an Understanding of Fade-out in Early Childhood Education Programs John A. List & Haruka Uchida X LinkedIn Facebook Bluesky Threads Email Link Working Paper 33027 DOI 10.3386/w33027 Issue Date October 2024 An unsettling stylized fact is that decorated early childhood education programs improve cognitive skills in the short-term, but lose their efficacy after a few years. We implement a field experiment with two stages of randomization to explore the underpinnings of the fade-out effect. We first randomly assign preschool access to children, and then partner with the local school district to randomly assign the same children to classmates throughout elementary school. We find that the fade-out effect is critically-linked to the share of classroom peers assigned to preschool accessโ€”with enough treated peers the classic fade-out effect is muted. Our results highlight a paradoxical insight: while the fade-out effect has been viewed as a devastating critique of early childhood programs, our results highlight that fade-out is a key rationale for providing early education to all children. This is because human capital accumulation is inherently a social activity, leading early education programs to deliver their largest benefits at scale when everyone receives such programs.

"...the fade-out effect has been viewed as a devastating critique of early childhood programs, our results highlight that fade-out is a key rationale for providing early education to all... largest benefits at scale when everyone receives such programs"
#EconSky #PolicySky
www.nber.org/papers/w33027

14.11.2025 21:40 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 20    ๐Ÿ” 12    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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On Environmental Democracy and the Collisonsโ€™ โ€œAbundance-Verseโ€ Andrew Jackson 21 November 2025 I. Introduction A clamour of praise greeted John Collisonโ€™s โ€œhow to get Ireland movingโ€ Op-Ed following its publication in the Irish Times on 25th October: the Irishโ€ฆ

Iโ€™ve written something on John Collisonโ€™s Op-Ed and environmental democracy

Next time youโ€™re out in Dublin, check if youโ€™re being โ€œsocially de-riskedโ€ by a friendly face from his think-tank

elajucd.com/2025/11/21/o...

21.11.2025 15:46 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 100    ๐Ÿ” 51    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 12    ๐Ÿ“Œ 21

Fair point. The effect of removing coffee from coffee drinkers is plausibly different from getting people to start drinking coffee.

22.11.2025 08:47 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 60    ๐Ÿ” 8    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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So there you have it, twin study estimates were greatly inflated, and molecular data sets the record straight. I walk through possible counter-arguments, but ultimately the uncomfortable truth is that genes contribute to traits much less than we always thought.

21.11.2025 22:33 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 114    ๐Ÿ” 38    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4    ๐Ÿ“Œ 7

๐Ÿ‘Š

21.11.2025 21:31 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

And this isn't dramatics. Elon literally used his power to gain access and destroy USAID which has surely resulted in many many preventable deaths.

21.11.2025 15:54 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 12    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

What do you call social scientists who work in the business school? Widely respected.

21.11.2025 15:51 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Microsoft has open sourced the Zork trilogy of text games Microsoft announced today that the code for Zork, Zork II and Zork III will be made available open source under the MIT License.

Microsoft has open sourced the Zork trilogy of text games - Now future generations can all be eaten by a grue www.engadget.com/gaming/micro... #zork #infocom #retrogamer #retrogaming #retrocomputing

21.11.2025 15:49 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 29    ๐Ÿ” 11    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 5

Worryingly, this is how a small number of insanely powerful humans actually think. They are a genuine threat to us all, and any reasonable political/economic system should prevent them from existing.

21.11.2025 15:49 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 29    ๐Ÿ” 4    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

The language of the Constitution is as plain on this point as any constitutional language *could* be.

Lower courts already ruled unequivocally on this point and there is no need for SCOTUS to be debating this at all.

Presidents who do not like what the Constitution says can propose amending it.

21.11.2025 14:23 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 39    ๐Ÿ” 9    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

๐Ÿ˜‰

21.11.2025 13:10 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I hope all you bastards who welcomed the falling leaves and the crisp, fall air are happy now. You've brought naught but dark, cold misery.

21.11.2025 09:11 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 20    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

lmao at the all-staff emails giving out about drunk students and christmas jumpers. I would reply-all to mock them, but I live by a code.

21.11.2025 09:08 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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UComp: Automatic Univariate Time Series Modelling of many Kinds Comprehensive analysis and forecasting of univariate time series using automatic time series models of many kinds. Harvey AC (1989) &lt;<a href="https://doi.org/10.1017%2FCBO9781107049994" target="_top">doi:10.1017/CBO9781107049994</a>&gt;. Pedregal DJ and Young PC (2002) &lt;<a href="https://doi.org/10.1002%2F9780470996430" target="_top">doi:10.1002/9780470996430</a>&gt;. Durbin J and Koopman SJ (2012) &lt;<a href="https://doi.org/10.1093%2Facprof%3Aoso%2F9780199641178.001.0001" target="_top">doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199641178.001.0001</a>&gt;. Hyndman RJ, Koehler AB, Ord JK, and Snyder RD (2008) &lt;<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007%2F978-3-540-71918-2" target="_top">doi:10.1007/978-3-540-71918-2</a>&gt;. Gรณmez V, Maravall A (2000) &lt;<a href="https://doi.org/10.1002%2F9781118032978" target="_top">doi:10.1002/9781118032978</a>&gt;. Pedregal DJ, Trapero JR and Holgado E (2024) &lt;<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.ijforecast.2023.09.004" target="_top">doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.09.004</a>&gt;.

New on CRAN: UComp (5.1.5). View at https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=UComp

18.11.2025 13:34 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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ECDC recommends vaccinating without delay due to early flu circulation Influenza detections are increasing unusually early in European Union/European Economic Area countries (EU/EEA) compared to previous years, with a timing three to four weeks earlier than the two most ...

Irish winter modelling meetings have commenced and flu has indeed kicked off strongly. Got my flu jab last week at local pharmacy. No appointment needed and no charge.

www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-even...

20.11.2025 20:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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INCREDIBLE CURVES

19.11.2025 22:43 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 362    ๐Ÿ” 78    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 10    ๐Ÿ“Œ 22

This is real x.com/grok/status/.... Yangtze record swim times but in LLM form

20.11.2025 13:58 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 54    ๐Ÿ” 13    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 8    ๐Ÿ“Œ 3

If I didn't know better, I'd say Grok was taking the piss here for sure.

20.11.2025 14:03 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Donate to Running in Red for the Rainbow Club โ€“ CUBS EMBA Santa Dash, organized by Cork University Business School We are the EMBA class at Cork University Business School, andโ€ฆ Cork University Business School needs your support for Running in Red for the Rainbow Club โ€“ CUBS EMBA Santa Dash

Hello all. I know there are lots of important needs out there in the world, but if you are interested in supporting autism services in Cork, we are raising funds for the Rainbow Club and I can speak from experience that they are excellent.

www.gofundme.com/f/running-in...

20.11.2025 13:20 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 10    ๐Ÿ” 4    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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UCC researchers receive โ‚ฌ1.1m to address national and global societal challenges | University College Cork Discover the latest impact of University College Cork with news and views from our leading research experts, our students and our graduates

Researchers @ucc.ie have been awarded funding for five interdisciplinary projects in the @researchireland.ie COALESCE Programme 2025, making @ucc.ie the highest performing institute in the programme.

Read More ๐Ÿ‘‡

www.ucc.ie/en/news/2025...

17.11.2025 13:05 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

@statsepi is following 20 prominent accounts