Tom Kellogg

I end with the thought that the end of the national security era will come someday, although it's hard to say exactly when. In the meantime, I fear that the on-the-ground situation in HK will get worse before it gets better - I am not optimistic abt the next 5 years, unfortunately! (4/end)

I try in the piece to suggest some developments we may see in the years to come: look, for example, for the HKG to push for new national security laws to deal with new problems and new targets. (3)

Without doubt, the NSL has been catastrophic for human rights and the rule of law in HK; it has also dealt a death blow to HK's once-vaunted autonomy. (2)

The Hong Kong National Security Law at 5: Unhappy Birthday - The Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation

A pleasure to work with @thecfhk.bsky.social on this short analysis of the impact of the HK NSL over the past five years:
thecfhk.org/the-hong-kon...

I will be following this case very closely, as will other experts and orgs. The handling of this case will be a key marker of the state of the rule of law in HK - further decline or perhaps (finally) some pushback from the courts? We will have to wait and see... (9/end)

There could well be consequences for failing to toe the line in this case. But now the courts have no choice - they are being asked to do something truly awful, something so fundamentally beyond the pale. They must say no. If they don't, expect more cases like this in the months to come. (8)

If the HKG moves forward with this prosecution, the courts should finally and unequivocally say no: they should refuse to sign off on this latest distortion of the rule of law, this latest effort to subvert constitutional human rights protections. This is a line that cannot be crossed. (7)

The charging of Kwok Yin-sang represents a new and deeply troubling development: up to now, no relative of an overseas activist has been charged with a nat sec crime. An important line has been crossed, to the HKG's eternal shame. The parallels with Mainland China are all too clear. (6)

No doubt, the courts are under significant political pressure from the government. But there needs to be a rethink by the courts - can this blank check for the government continue? Human rights protections have been abandoned in nat sec cases, and public confidence in the courts has declined. (5)

The ongoing crackdown has put HK's courts in a difficult spot: how to respond? Thus far at least, the courts have given the HKG (almost) everything it has asked for - the govt has an almost-perfect conviction rate, and a near-perfect record on procedural questions as well. (4)

HK's once free and wide-open civil society has been dramatically reordered, and a robust free press has been put on a very short leash. The once-proud Legislative Council is now a rubber stamp for government initiatives, including new national security laws that further restrict basic rights. (3)

Working closely with @ericyhlai.bsky.social, I have been tracking the implementation of HK's draconian NSL for almost five years now. Since then, nearly three hundred activists, politicians, lawyers, journalists, and everyday citizens have been imprisoned under the law. (2)

Joint Statement from Civil Society Groups on the Hong Kong Government’s Targeting of Exiled Activists’ Families We, the undersigned civil society and human rights organizations, strongly condemn the Hong Kong government’s escalating repression of activists in exile and their family members in Hong Kong.

Important statement from 23 CN-focused research and advocacy organizations, including @georgetowncal.bsky.social, on the arrest and charging of Kwok Yin-sang, father of Anna Kwok, the head of HKDC. A deeply troubling development .(1/x)
www.hrw.org/news/2025/05...

I will also take Lepore's (implicit) advice to check out the Penguin 100 -- had seen them in bookstores before, but had not really given them any serious attention! We all need the consolations of literature (and music, and film, and yes even journalism) these days! (7/end)

Last but not least, I'm also 100pp into @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social and @dkthomp.bsky.social's Abundance -- really enjoying it. I find it to be an antidote as well - let's have an informed conversation about the problems we face, rather than lots of attacks and corruption and awfulness! (6)

For bookish escapism, I read and liked Han Kang's Vegetarian, but its epic brutality made me wonder: is this the literary escape for this moment? I'm not sure, but I'm glad I read it. (5)

And don't forget movies, the primary escape mechanism of our time! Summer of Soul is at the top of my re-watch list, as the The Taking of Pelham 123 (1974 version, currently on Criterion).

But there's no doubt, we all need the consolations of culture. I recently re-listened to Elijah Wald's masterful Dylan Goes Electric, which took me back for a few days to a different time, and a different place, and a focus on some of the best music ever written and performed. Wonderful solace. (3)

I understand the need to turn away from the news -- we all must do it from time to time these days, to keep our sanity. But for me, there's also a need to try not to look away, to see what our government is doing, and to try to understand. All of this is part of figuring out how to respond! (2)

A Hundred Classics to Get Me Through a Hundred Days of Trump Each morning, before the day’s decree, I turned to a slim book, hoping for sense, or solace.

beautiful essay by Jill Lepore on reading 100 Penguin Little Black Classics during Trump's first 100 days -- a must-read for all of us seeking sanity during this chaotic and awful time! Thanks to @newyorker.com for publishing it!
www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...

don't forget the need to play to the domestic nationalist audience, which also likes the "get tough" rhetoric and the references to the Chairman. On the first prong, another parallel with today's GOP...

In any case, ES' piece is worth a read - very helpful in showing how we got to this moment. it's no criticism to say that she doesn't have a solution to the current FP crisis - none of us do! that said, many of her solutions are relevant to a rebuilding phase, if/when we get there... (11/end)

GOP Congressional voices are either (a) silent or (b) half-heartedly suggesting that Trump's policy is meant to be some sort of tough love, eg for UKR and Europe. Not pretty, to say the least. (10)

We're now witnessing the turbo-charging of many of the trends that ES talks about in the piece - US FP has reached a crisis point more quickly than I thought possible, with many key allies starting to think through what their FP should look like in the absence of US security guarantees. (9)

I will have to think more about the question of elites and the lack of public engagement with foreign policy q's. It's true, but it creates problems - AID (eg) is (or was?) ever-vulnerable, in part b/c it doesn't have a public constituency. Once one party abandons it, it is in mortal danger. (8)

This pt overlaps with pts that E makes - hyper-partisanship is also good for fundraising, eg, and also takes up sooo much of members' time - they don't have time to develop serious expertise! Too busy dialing for dollars and going on Fox/MSNBC to keep up their partisan profiles. (7)

One quibble with ES' piece - I would have said more about the corrupting influence of $$ in our political system, and how that undercuts the ability of Congress to be a serious player on foreign policy. (6)

I teach my students about the long-term durability of the Taiwan Relations Act -- it's almost unthinkable that Congress could have pass such a law today, one with far-reaching and constructive consequences for US-China policy for more than four decades (and counting!). (5)

there's also the problem of the long-term decline of Congress as a serious institutional player - ES is right that we can't really separate out the problem of a listing foreign policy debate in Washington from Congress' long, slow slide. (4)

That said, as ES points out, durable foreign policy is the product of rigorous domestic debate. With the GOP turn away from expertise and the rise of hyper-partisanship, we simply can't/don't have that sort of debate these days. instead, we get hyper-partisan fights, over and over again. (3)