Jake Mortenson

Analyzing US multinational enterprises' trade flows using newly linked customs transaction data and their production networks, revealing intrafirm linkages and trade frictions in regional supply chains, from Alfaro, Conconi, @fkamal.bsky.social, and Kroff https://www.nber.org/papers/w33887

It has now been 134 consecutive combined seasons for Minnesota’s NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA, and MLS teams without a finals appearance.

Recently published in @jpube.bsky.social:

"Tax Avoidance through corporate accounting: Insights for corporate tax bases"

By Eric Heiser, Michael Love, & @jm0rt.bsky.social

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

#econsky

Excited to have this paper out in JPubEc.

Relevant to folks pondering/evaluating/designing corporate tax bases!

🚨New Predoc Posting Alert!🚨

@koenig-felix.bsky.social and I are looking to hire a full-time predoctoral fellow to work with us on projects about the economics of labor markets and the future work at @carnegiemellon.bsky.social

Please share and/or apply!

apply.interfolio.com/164383

#econ_ra

Labor Supply and Entertainment Innovations: Evidence From the U.S. TV Rollout (Forthcoming Article) - We study the impact of entertainment technology on labor supply. Using Social Security work histories and a natural experiment arising from the regulated U.S. rollout of televi...

Forthcoming in AEJ: Applied Economics: "Labor Supply and Entertainment Innovations: Evidence From the U.S. TV Rollout" by George Fenton and Felix Koenig. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Fiscal Dynamics of State and Local Governments, Fall 2025

Reminder to submit your papers on topics related to the economics of state and local government finances, fiscal federalism, and related themes by February 27th:
www.nber.org/conferences/...

Conference to be held September 11-12, 2025.

Present your best public finance research in Dublin ☘️

Theory and empirics welcome, just send us your best work. Keynote from one of best PF economists in Europe, @dinapomeranz.bsky.social. Thanks to support from the Central Bank, UCD, and TCD.

Go to publiceconomics.ie for details on how to submit.

🚨now out in the Journal of Financial Economics 🚨

“Financial Inclusion Across the United States”

by Moto Yogo, Natalie Cox, and me

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X2500011X?dgcid=coauthor

Just published in the @jpube.bsky.social:

"How Do Business Owners Respond to a Tax Cut? Examining the 199A Deduction for Pass-through Firms"

By Lucas Goodman, Katherine Lim, Bruce Sacerdote, & @andrew-whitten.bsky.social

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... #econsky

If you’re looking for ways to improve your local school district, this excellent piece of research suggests HVAC improvements as low hanging fruit. [ungated version here]: www.barbarabiasi.com/uploads/1/0/...

Just published in @jpube.bsky.social:

"Correlation in state and local tax changes"

By Scott R. Baker, Pawel Janas, & @lorenzkueng.bsky.social

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
#econsky

I’m excited to share a funded year-long PhD student fellowship, combining non-partisan economic policy research & public service at:

- Congressional Budget Office
- Congressional Research Service
- Medicare Payment Advisory Commission

Deadline is Thursday 30 January 2025

1/ It's Christmastime, and for a certain elite few that means our thoughts turn to only one thing: the greatest holiday special of all time, 1987's "A Muppet Family Christmas."

And in this THREAD I have a *treat* for all of you, courtesy my family's 1989 VHS recording.

What can your advisor do? They almost certainly can't help you with the most competitive places on your list, but they can reach out to places that may have thought you were out of reach and let them know you are gettable.

(yes)

Check out that JHR article I linked to. Covers lots of these unit of observation questions, and the ramifications for income inequality measures

For ex, this probably only includes individuals who file tax returns or are claimed on tax returns as dependents, which misses about 10% of adults

I assume it is neither, given the use of “adjusted gross income”,

Presumably it is a “tax unit”

davidsplinter.com/LarrimoreMor...

Was nice to see this from the CBO
www.cbo.gov/publication/...

Were you a boy scout? Looks like a pinewood derby car.

Few people even know about this; when people are asked in surveys how child mortality has changed the majority says it has stagnated or increased.

If you consider that many don't know about humanity's biggest achievement, then it's not surprising that many are so pessimistic about our future.

Tax Incentives for Charitable Giving: New Findings from the TCJA Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

The TCJA meaningfully increased the standard deduction, reducing the share of taxpayers who itemize their deductions. This reduced the use of charitable giving deductions (an itemized deduction). Han et al. find that charitable giving declined as a result: www.nber.org/papers/w32737
[4/n]

Robust Estimation of Private Business Wealth* Job Market Paper Simon J. Toussaint† November 14, 2024 [Most recent version here] Abstract Estimating the market value of private businesses is essential for understanding both aggregate firm dynamics and top wealth inequality, yet these values are inherently unobservable. This paper introduces an econometric approach that treats the gap between true market values and initial estimates as measurement error. I employ time-series restrictions on these errors as moment conditions within a GMM framework, and use the fitted values from these estimations as error-free estimates of private business wealth and capital stocks. Applying this method to Dutch administrative data linking the universe of firms to their owners, I find that aggregate private business wealth increases by 30% of GDP initially, and is more stable than the unadjusted series. Top 1% and 0.1% wealth shares increase by 3–5 percentage points, peaking at 38% and 20%, respectively. Adjusted returns to firm wealth exhibit a steeper gradient across the wealth distribution than unadjusted returns, consistent with models of return heterogeneity.

📯 Job Market Paper Alert 📯

Private businesses make up 50% of sales & profits and are the main wealth component of the wealthiest households. So, what is their value? Well, that's difficult, since they're not listed: their value is unobservable by definition!

My #EconJMP tackles this problem 1/

Hi Pierce, would appreciate being added to this.

Some of the provisions affecting multinational entities — notably GILTI and FDII — tighten or become less generous (respectively) at the end of 2025. This paper, by Smith et al., studies the effect of these provisions and other corporate tax changes in TCJA: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... [3/n]

👋

New theory and empirical work from @katarzynabilicka.bsky.social , Mike Devereux & İrem Güçeri on MNE profit shifting responses to domestic tax rates 🏝️⛴️⬅️💂‍♂️
www.nber.org/system/files...

How Do Business Owners Respond to a Tax Cut? Examining the 199A Deduction for Pass-through Firms Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

First up, one of the few papers that directly examines section 199A, the 20 percent deduction on qualified business income, which expires at the end of 2025: www.nber.org/papers/w28680

[2/n]

This is a thread on academic papers relevant to discussions of potential U.S. tax policy changes. Will be adding to it periodically. Please feel free to send suggestions.

But first here is a list of expiring provisions between now and 2034, compiled by JCT: www.jct.gov/publications...

[1/n]

Yo