Dr Andreas Krieg

"We might not like what the UAE are doing, how they're doing it. But they have made themselves indispensable in all these conflicts. I call it weaponized interdependence. They've created a web that is so all encompassing that you'll have to eventually speak to them"
www.patreon.com/posts/radio-...

My MEE podcast on the roots of Abu Dhabi's strategic thinking and culture, the #UAE's Axis of Secessionists and how it transformed from a small state to a middle power by intervening in #Sudan, #Yemen, #Somalia, #Libya and #Egypt

youtu.be/au8rfmdUGvo?...

L’or, un enjeu stratégique pour les Émirats arabes unis – DW – 17/11/2025 L’or africain continue de nourrir des réseaux opaques. Alors même qu'ils ne disposent pas de mines d'or, les Émirats arabes unis sont devenus une plaque tournante mondiale pour l’or de contrebande.

"This activity is extremely lucrative ," continues @andreaskrieg.bsky.social , " and generates a lot of money for the United Arab Emirates, but especially for the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces, who launder the gold. #UAE #RSF #Sudan

www.dw.com/fr/le-trafic...

Von Kamelreitern zu High-Tech-Piloten – wie Drohnen den Sudan-Krieg verändern Drohnen sind das neue Machtinstrument in Afrikas Kriegen. Nirgendwo zeigt sich das so drastisch wie im Sudan. Eine visuelle Analyse über diese neue Waffe – und die Mächte im Hintergrund.

Die Emirate sorgen dafür, dass es möglichst keine
Belege für eine direkte Verbindung zu den RSF gibt», sagt der Militärexperte @andreaskrieg.bsky.social. «Die Unterstützung wird stets so arrangiert, dass sie glaubwürdig geleugnet werden kann.»
www.nzz.ch/internationa...

The UAE has taken Sudan to the brink. Now it must use its power to end the war By doubling down on the RSF, Abu Dhabi expanded the brutal civil war. It should now leverage that entanglement to push for deescalation

My new piece ✍️ on #UAE strategy in #Sudan

"Since the Arab Spring, MbZ has been consistent: tie local actors to UAE logistics and finance, reward compliance, punish betrayal, and cultivate multiple allies so you never lose your seat at the table"
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/uae-...

How the fall of El-Fasher could cement Sudan’s partition Marking one of the bloodiest chapters in the brutal 18-month war, the fall of El-Fasher to the RSF could permanently alter Sudan’s map

"This is part of what I call Abu Dhabi’s ‘Axis of Secessionists’, a strategy that wins by not being defeated, keeping allies resourced and corridors open, and converting time into leverage," said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social" #UAE #RSF
www.newarab.com/analysis/how...

Israel maintaining control deeper inside Gaza than expected, new boundary markers suggest Israel has placed boundary markers up to 520m deeper inside Gaza than expected under the ceasefire deal with Hamas.

For Palestinians, a line on a map can be the difference between life and death.

BBC Verify found Israel is controlling more of Gaza than agreed in the ceasefire deal.

Israel said anyone who crossed its "yellow line" would be “met with fire”.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Multiple experts suggested the blocks were intended to create a "buffer zone" between Palestinians and IDF troops.

"This gives the IDF space to manoeuvre and create a 'kill zone' against potential targets" @andreaskrieg.bsky.social

Turkey, Qatar step up bid to protect Gaza truce Turkey and Qatar intensified efforts to preserve the fragile Gaza ceasefire, with their leaders meeting in Doha Wednesday as diplomatic and intelligence chiefs coordinated to prevent renewed fighting,...

"This is just a ceasefire that needs to be translated into a peace deal. Turkish boots on the ground will be important to move towards a multinational security force in Gaza," he explained, saying Turkey and Qatar would play a key role in "deconflicting" efforts.
www.yahoo.com/news/article...

'Worse than starting from scratch': how big is the task of rebuilding Gaza? BBC Verify investigates the damage done by two years of war, which could take $70bn and decades to repair.

"As Prof @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, a Middle East security expert from King's College London, says: "It's worse than starting from scratch - here you aren't starting in the sand, you are starting with rubble." #Gaza
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg "The Gulf has generated strategic autonomy through network-centric statecraft"

On how the #Gulf states have generated strategic autonomy through #network centric statecraft, weaponizing connectivity and interdependence to extract global influence.
youtu.be/sejgGFDfrAw

YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg "Collapse of law and order in Gaza greatest threat to peace plan"

"Israel has systematically destroyed Gaza's civil and governance infrastructure. With Hamas severely degraded, the vacuum may be filled by rival factions. This chaos could serve Israel’s interests, providing a pretext to re-enter under the guise of restoring order"
youtu.be/_n1-xR-LF34

Citing Sarajevo, Grozny, and Mosul, @andreaskrieg.bsky.social
said: “There are precedents, but #Gaza is totally different. There it was one single city — here it is four times that — one massive strip of land.”
www.thetimes.com/world/middle...

YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg What is next for the Palestinian resistance movements? | Inside Story

"A transition to sustainable peace in #Gaza lacks four elements: (1) a mutually hurting stalemate; (2) effective leadership on both sides; (3) committed international guarantors; and (4) a viable DDR program for disarmament amid an open-ended IDF withdrawal plan"
youtu.be/7GhxRS9ohgs

"Negotiators are still working through the order of steps on a first phase that ties a ceasefire to an initial Israeli pullback and a hostage-prisoner exchange. If either side questions who moves first, or if names on the exchange lists cannot be verified in time, implementation will slip.”

YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg Trump's Defence Commitment to Qatar - A new pivot to the Gulf?

Deep-dive with FirstPost into what #Trump's security commitment to #Qatar means, legally, for the #Gulf, for the US role as a protector in the region and the pivot to Asia
youtu.be/evnlNR6dUXQ

What Trump's Qatar Security Pledge Means For Mideast US President Donald Trump signed an executive order this week vowing to defend Qatar against attacks, following Israeli air strikes targeting Hamas leaders in Doha.

For Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London, the directive "turns attacks on Doha into problems for Washington".

"For the region, it restores a measure of deterrence but leaves the United States with ample discretion over how to act," he added.
www.barrons.com/news/what-tr...

The missing detail in Trump's peace plan that could mean 'violence will persist' The US president's peace plan for Gaza includes the creation of a temporary "International Stabilisation Force", but analysts say this will be a challenging task.

"A phased plan should set conditions: recruitment of Palestinian police, milestones for districts handed over, timelines for drawdown, said Andreas Krieg.

"Otherwise, the ISF risks looking like an occupying army rather than a transitional stabilisation mission"
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10...

YouTube video by Dr Andreas Krieg "An unprecedented US commitment to Qatar's security"

"This Executive Order is an unprecedented security commitment by the United States to a non-treaty ally, just falling short of an NATO Art. 5 commitment...The Trump administration wanted to give as firm an assurance as possible within the shortest time possible"
youtu.be/YhsWXssBs6s

Who is set to be on Trump’s Board of Peace? Blair named as part of Israel-Gaza plan Tony Blair would have a central role in any post-war plans for the beleaguered Palestinian enclave laid out by Washington

“For #Hamas, the plan amounts to an existential threat”,
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social
said. “Yet Hamas has historically sought to amend rather than wholly reject proposals, the political leadership abroad could explore a partial acceptance of certain elements"
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/m...

Sadly I agree w @andreaskrieg.bsky.social that this is the likeliest outcome. Extremists feeding off one another, to the detriment of all who’ve suffered most.

Palestinians in Gaza who never asked for Oct. 7, and Israeli hostages’ families betrayed by Bibi, have wanted a ceasefire for nearly 2 yrs.

Is the Middle East about to get an 'Islamic NATO'? – DW – 09/25/2025 Israel's first-ever attack on a Gulf state is causing changes in Arab defense policies, with more calls for regional cooperation and common defense pacts. Some politicians have even called for an "Isl...

"Security in the #Gulf has long been based on a tributary logic, basically you pay someone else to take care of your protection,"
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social
said. "That mentality is beginning to shift after the attack on #Qatar" he acknowledges, "but only slowly."
www.dw.com/en/is-the-mi...

How would an Israel-Syria security deal impact the Middle East? If agreed, the US-brokered security pact could bolster Israel’s influence, constrain Syria’s sovereignty, and complicate other regional tensions

@andreaskrieg.bsky.social however, warned that this “leaves him turning a blind eye to the risks that Israel may use ‘salami tactics’ - carving out security arrangements piece by piece until Syrian sovereignty in the south is permanently undermined”.
www.newarab.com/analysis/how...

Is Turkiye Israel’s next target in the Middle East? Following Israel’s Doha strikes, Ankara is increasingly on high alert over Israel’s regional ambitions.

“#Israel’s threat to Turkiye is not conventional military aggression but rather the targeting of Turkish interests via indirect means,” said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social, speaking about Ankara’s interests in Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean and the South Caucasus.
www.aljazeera.com/features/202...

The Return of the Arab–Israeli Conflict The fallout from Israel’s strike on Qatar drags the region back into the dangerous early stages of the Arab–Israeli conflict.

My new piece✍️
"The return of the Arab–Israeli conflict is not just about framing discourse. It is about a dangerous new reality that will likely spark a period of confrontation where wars over narratives can easily spill into the military domain"
www.andreaskrieg.com/post/the-ret...

“Qataris always had the ability to reach out to any actor and engage them, including Hamas or the Taliban, as they knew domestically that the home front is always safe,” said @andreaskrieg.bsky.social.
observer.co.uk/news/interna...

How Israeli strikes are compelling shift in Gulf security thinking The Gulf has long been a geo-strategic borderland between east and west, the global north and south. It sits at the crossroads of critical energy supplies, maritime trade and ideological confrontation...

My piece ✍️ on how Israel's strike on Qatar fundamentally challenges long-held strategic assumptions in the Gulf

In a transactional post-US order, the #Gulf states need develop more strategic autonomy & use their bargaining power also with the US
amwaj.media/en/article/i...

Israeli strikes shake quiet Qatar, strain US ties Ahmed was in a university lecture when he heard the bangs: loud explosions from unprecedented Israeli air strikes targeting Hamas that shattered Qatar's peace and put the wealthy Gulf region on edge.

The strike "will also put further strain on US-Qatar relations, which is exactly what Israel wants to do", said
@andreaskrieg.bsky.social

"It wants to drive a wedge between Qatar and the United States."
www.france24.com/en/live-news...

Israel attack on Qatar: Another nail in the coffin of US regional leadership One of the Gulf’s most active mediators has been violated, its sovereignty trampled, while the US administration struggled to find words

My piece on declining US leadership ✍️

"Struggling for words, #Trump appears powerless to put his dog on the lead. Instead, it is once again the tail wagging the dog - a reality that across the #Gulf will be seen as weak and helpless" #Israel
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/isra...

Frappes israéliennes sur le Hamas au Qatar : Doha confronté au lâchage de son protecteur américain Le fait que la Maison blanche ne se soit pas opposée aux plans de l’Etat hébreu et n’ait pas formellement condamné l’opération constitue une rupture majeur du pacte liant depuis des décennies la monar...

"Mais l’émirat ne pourra pas faire l’économie d’une introspection. « On assiste à l’effondrement du vieil ordre mondial, fondé sur le multilatéralisme, argumente M.Krieg. Le Qatar, qui a toujours joué cette carte, risque de pâtir de la recomposition en cours.»
www.lemonde.fr/internationa...