retepelyod

It was a big job, but between nuclear sub moves, tariff announcements, firing a non-White Christian Nationalist head of BLS, sending Representatives on an early vacation, and pull ups for kids, Jeffrey Epstein has disappeared again.

Grant me but one wish … that economists would stop grandolinquently claiming their work is “novel” and just say “new” like normal people.

Imagine had Biden and the Europeans done this and similar immediately Russia invaded Ukraine …

Hundreds of Israeli ex-officials appeal to Trump to help end Gaza war It comes amid reports that PM Netanyahu is pushing to expand Israel's military operations in Gaza.

Economists’ letters have never changed policy.

Given its addressee, I have little hope for this letter either …

www.bbc.com/news/article...

“Bad things done under cover of real problems” could be this administration’s epithet.

Your occasional reminder of these establishment macroeconomists who unreservedly backed him …

Of course, no rumination, no withdrawal of endorsement, no apologies because something establishment economists NEVER do is admit error, no matter how egregious.

Crypto crapto.

The Whitelash which continues to this day was in response to the 1960s civil rights legislation, and Nixon and his Southern Strategy was but its first manifestation.

Moved to better protect the Epstein files …

Tariffs will help improve 'broken global economic situation,' economist Oren Cass says President Trump announced another list of new tariffs on more than 60 countries, an unprecedented economic move that seeks to remake the global trade system. The tariffs, which range in rates from 10 ...

Oh dear.

PBS, which just had its federal funding withdrawn, has decided to “both sides“ tariffs.

www.pbs.org/newshour/sho...

Two points missing from the response to firing the BLS commissioner:

1. Further to Epstein distraction.
2. She is female.

Will it be “The Jeffrey Epstein Ballroom”?

Never mind the jobs revisions hooplah.

The message from today’s jobs report is continued decline in African American labor force participation—signaling sustained weakness in aggregate demand.

Say it soft, but with the trimmed mean PCE up, the FOMC is facing stagflation.

Bravo, again, @drodrik.bsky.social

Especially needed given the capitulation advocated by Laurence Summers.

Tariff mayhem, for now … explain the outliers if you can.

Comment from Africa, at the other place.

x.com/daddyhope/st...

These items do not an “inflation shock” make; they are relative price shocks.

The inflation shock lies in the trimmed mean PCE (see link) … which is a shocker.

bsky.app/profile/rete...

Ouch … June was ugly, no doubt … weak US$ and tariff trouble combining … ?

bsky.app/profile/rete...

Still puzzled by forex reaction to the EU Tariff Trade Deal with US — the fall in the euro.

Were markets really anticipating a better deal ?

And the line will start with “tariffs will not cause inflation; the FED is there to stop inflation from any source including that one, and, if left alone, it will do its job.”

But tariffs will damage the economy in other ways …

A telling sign of the disarray among DEMs is that they do not have a line on the substance of tariffs.

Lots on process, lots on uncertainty, nothing on the substance.

I’ll be happy to supply them with a line on the substance.

Note the impetus to growth from an easing of debt burdens outside the OECD, thx to a 10% real effective fall in the US$.

That tells you what a drag excess debt is on global growth in the IMF’s view.

Yet it steadfastly refuses to make global growth the anchor of its sovereign insolvency framework.

This long account of Rubio’s MAGA’ization has no space to report that his hatchet work has brought some Africans to the point of starvation, and—refunding for PEPRAR notwithstanding given he destroyed the infrastructure for its delivery—he has set the stage for a resurgence of AIDs in Africa.

When the IMF decides—for reasons best known unto itself—that it cannot tell the UK to raise tax/GDP, then all sorts of silly suggestions have their 15 minutes.

A map that bears a lot of thinking about.

3. They have even swallowed the deficit boosting BBB b/c they believe that the threat of their major bust if he seriously impairs the FED on inflation in the face of a BBB boom will force him to retreat there too.

In short, things are OK because Donald isnt being Donald. Watch out if that changes.

Key to understanding why the US econ remains strong 6 mths in is twofold:

1. Trump has done little beyond make a lot of noise—see tarriff retreats on all the big ones, so what is left is not good, but is small beer.

2. Markets believe that if he goes nuts, their reaction will pull him back.

Expected since Nov 6.

But it was an appointment for which, despite her academic credeitials, her imperious style was deeply unsuited, so she made no construtive mark.

Beware, however, her replacement.

The poisoned political fallout from the hysterical & wrong real-time criticims of the Fed at Biden-Admin’s start—led by Summers, El Arian, & Blanchard.

Their subsequent non mea culpas and new op eds contra interference are ignored by the conspiriscists, only their shrieks count.

Well done guys !