Pinecone Macro Research

And that was just today...

LatAm versus S&P getting interesting here

a man in a suit and tie is standing in front of a door with the letter h on it ALT: a man in a suit and tie is standing in front of a door with the letter h on it

BESSENT: AIMING FOR A 3% OR SO FISCAL GAP BY 2028

LMAO

BESSENT: CAN GET TO 3% GDP GROWTH PRETTY QUICKLY

Yeah - because you are coming nowhere near 3% deficits!

Well Twitter just gets worse by the day and is currently dead so what up y'all

True lol

Today is largely about the Europe bump from possible peace in Ukraine

open.substack.com/pub/pinecone...

Given where the market is - this is not getting enough attention

A lot of good charts and interesting news today

open.substack.com/pub/pinecone...

Fed better hope UMich does not wake up other inflation expectations...

Interesting plunge in credit card balances

Merry Christmas 🐿️

Ouch

Just sayin

Powell just said getting down to the green line by the end of next year would be 'significant progress'

Glad we all agree about everything...

a man in a suit and tie is walking down the street . ALT: a man in a suit and tie is walking down the street .

Ag to Mag - I like that

YouTube video by The Market Huddle Wildly Spicy Sentiment (Guest: Chase Taylor)

Check out my interview on The Market Huddle - great stocking stuffer youtu.be/RDB4z63ItnE

This is the SEP from the end of 2022 - for 2024:

Growth was much better
Unemployment rate was much better
Inflation was higher

The Fed has not changed their 2.1% core PCE forecast for 2025 since but did bump the neutral rate up 0.4%

Pardon me, too: Betting on Biden’s potential pardons From Anthony Fauci to Anthony Weiner, here’s a breakdown of Kalshi's Biden pardon market.

Kalshi's blog is so good blog.kalshi.com/betting-on-b...

Ah yes - the sustainable path to 2%

Feels like an issue...

Global thermal coal exports and power use to hit new highs in 2024: Maguire Global exports and use of thermal coal will reach all-time highs in 2024, despite the record roll-out of renewable energy generation capacity across all major continents.

Peak coal is still 1 year away... www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

'We have so much growth right now, it's hard to think that the level of the interest rates is restrictive at this point.'

How is this common sense only common to Bowman...?

Higher.

Everyone at the Fed agrees we are on a 'sustainable path to 2%' - but we bottomed well above that 6 months ago and this is with oil under $70 and China exporting deflation...

Given all the froth out there - not the kind of headline bulls want to see right now...

In February we published a piece about the Fed cutting into strength in 2024 opening up a 1998 analog...and guess what...best year for SPX since...1998