Brent Crossman

We've always been at war with _____

Ha ha, what a bot

There's something philosophically appealing about random forests and what it says about what a bunch of fairly ordinary decision makers can do when working together.

Citizens waving American flags protest Trump violating the Constitution.

MAGA: They’re Marxists who hate America.

GOP operatives praise Hitler and joke about rape and gas chambers in their group chat.

MAGA: Boys will be boys!

I hope Bill Green is happy with everything he's enabled in the world by supporting Collins.

Isn't this answered by acknowledging that people weren't going to be happy with slower inflation, they wanted deflation, which was/is never going to happen, so they're going to be pissed at incumbents for a long time.

This is a bit of a Matt Y subtweet but my theory is that a large percentage of ex-Biden voters (i.e. voted Biden, then voted Trump or didn't vote) may not agree with Dems on all social issues but they also don't care at all about social issues and abandoning the social issue won't help win them over

Can I ask you a random question I've been thinking about on "issues" polling. Is there something like a cross-tab that would show a) how people voted in 2020 vs 2024 b) how they felt on various issues (strongly agreed, agreed, etc.) but also a ranking of importance of the issues?

Well I'll do a bit of research on the Iowa Dem voting and what it implies, and a bit on bashears/cooper but I definitely can agree that debating is not the highest from of persuasion. Otoh, I think my side of the aisle has pulled back from public debate too much and needs more "debate me bros"

I want to clarify that debating is not the exclusive means of 'doing good political work,' but to suggest it has no value (or is harmful) isn't true either

He persuaded a majority of delegates in Iowa as a gay Democrat who was only a mayor of South Bend. Is that more or less convincing than losing a statewide run for treasurer in Indiana...I think it shows what being a communicator willing to "debate me bro" on Fox News can do.

I get that it's performative and many times won on rhetoric over logic, facts, and analysis, but I mean, welcome to politics (and life). That's the arena, we either put people in that arena (like a buttigieg) or the republicans fill the vacuum and win people over by default.

It is hard to take Ben seriously when he's just shadow boxing a fictitious "left". When he can't point to something any Dem with power (whether it is Biden, or Bernie, etc) is doing to fit his caricature of "the left" it's just made up to justify the need for his "conservative" approach.

Same

Platner seems really good, Mills is very good. I'm fine with them both presenting their vision of the democratic party in the marketplace of ideas and seeing which way democrats vote. Then I'll gladly support either to beat Collins and I think they both have a strong chance to do that.

If it's too cold, you can take the Tauntauns.

You all dog whistled the tune these MAGA are now blaring as they march in the street. You need to own that.

I remember a book I read called "People Skills" and the most profound point it made was that you probably shouldn't give advice even if they do ask for it....

The scenes with only two people in it make it worth it.

You can watch Hadley's keynote at this link: www.youtube.com/live/ctc2kx3...

#useR2025

So that shows YoY growth in a way that does smooth over some of the volatility. I usually do it monthly, but you could do 1 - 52 weeks for the x-axis if you want weekly (I haven't tried that)

Yeah, let me grab a picture:

Have you tried a YTD fan chart. Each week month is the YTD total till that point and then group/color by year

US Air Force to deny retirement pay to transgender service members being separated from the service The U.S. Air Force has decided to deny early retirement options for transgender service members with 15 to 18 years of service.

These Americans served with honor for more than a decade. Put their lives on the line. Trump fired them, just for being who they are-and now is denying retirement benefits our nation promised them for their service.

Treating troops this way is dishonorable, unfair, & harmful to national security.

Just to post something not political. Universal Studios did an amazing job with the new Epic Park. Each universe is as immersive as the Harry Potter sections of the older parks. Dining in particular has been good food and a great experience.

An example: I was trying to look at the elasticity of supply for something recently and I just let the llm rip. It did very accurate tests and analysis but it didn't make sense. I went back to my initial inclination to just chart the series various ways and that got me going on the right foot

Hard stuff is when I'm trying to figure out "how" I want to look at something, a survival analysis, machine learning, are there regressors in a time series. If I start leaving the options too wide, too early with the llm, I get analysis I don't understand or agree